Gavin P:

These will change of course, but CFS currently indicates the chance of a pretty cold autumn and winter;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mMon.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mSeaNorm.gif

Well if this summer continues on the way it is then i suspect the coming Autumn and early winter will be a repeat (or similar) to last years

Are the MetO not making an NAO call this year based on May SSTs? It's almost July now and I can't find anything on their web site.

i think its due sometime in July Brian.

It's usually early-mid July when the Metoffice give their early thoughts on the upcoming winter.....Would anyone like to make a guess as to what they may say based on early evidence?

Aaron

CreweCold:

It's usually early-mid July when the Metoffice give their early thoughts on the upcoming winter.....Would anyone like to make a guess as to what they may say based on early evidence?

 

Aaron

I would think something along the lines of - first thougts are that it will be above average with long mild spells, but with potentially a few cooler interludes, but these cool spells will only in reality be around average, but because we have been used to mild winters  lately they will feel cool.

The MetO have done well with there last few winter forecasts havent they ? 

Yorkie:

CreweCold:

It's usually early-mid July when the Metoffice give their early thoughts on the upcoming winter.....Would anyone like to make a guess as to what they may say based on early evidence?

 

Aaron

 

I would think something along the lines of - first thougts are that it will be above average with long mild spells, but with potentially a few cooler interludes, but these cool spells will only in reality be around average, but because we have been used to mild winters  lately they will feel cool.

The MetO have done well with there last few winter forecasts havent they ? 

Yes they have actually- when many were raving about the winter just gone maybe being a cold one, they stuck to their thoughts that it would be above average in terms of temperatures for the majority of the winter period. I personally think that they may signal an average winter this year in terms of temperatures with a slightly negaive NAO signal....but we shall have to wait and see.

Aaron

Yorkie:

CreweCold:

It's usually early-mid July when the Metoffice give their early thoughts on the upcoming winter.....Would anyone like to make a guess as to what they may say based on early evidence?

 

Aaron

 

I would think something along the lines of - first thougts are that it will be above average with long mild spells, but with potentially a few cooler interludes, but these cool spells will only in reality be around average, but because we have been used to mild winters  lately they will feel cool.

The MetO have done well with there last few winter forecasts havent they ? 

Yes they have actually- when many were raving about the winter just gone maybe being a cold one, they stuck to their thoughts that it would be above average in terms of temperatures for the majority of the winter period. I personally think that they may signal an average winter this year in terms of temperatures with a slightly negaive NAO signal....but we shall have to wait and see.

Aaron

Brian Gaze:

Are the MetO not making an NAO call this year based on May SSTs? It's almost July now and I can't find anything on their web site.

According to the Meto website the first indications for Winter 08/09 will be released at 10am on 10th July. (next Thursday)

Ooooo Thanks WS. Can't wait to read what they've got to say!

Are these forecasts really worth anything?

The weather will do as it likes come the time. It all depends on the synoptic set up at the time and our weather gets stuck in a rut on occasions. You can have all the northern blocking you like, but depending where the cogs are i.e. LP & HPs you will get that air source, end of.

Phil G:

Are these forecasts really worth anything?

 

Hey ....Chill Phil, (although that's not necessairly my MetO seasonal guess )

Well obviously the great & the good @ Exeter feel there is worth in developing seasonal LRF tools. So do a large number of very well respected Met/Academic institutions around the world. I'm sure all would acknowledge the (largely) experimental nature of seasonal forecasting ATM, but even the most doubtful critic would surely concede that scientific endevour is worthwhile. Experience would suggest that, with time, probabilities will become more refined as the knowledge base expands.

For those members more concerned with cost than value, here is a link to an interesting discussion about the use of seasonal LRFs by corporations needing to make hedging decisions:-

 http://www.financewise.com/public/edit/energy/weather00/wthr00-forecast.htm

Telegraph moles whisper that the MetO will say that early indications suggest a colder than average winter across north west Europe.

Hi Justin ,

Thanks for that tasty tit-bit from the street of shame......sounds very encouraging.

Certainly credible when one looks at the latest seasonal SST anomaly pattern:-

Excuse a little bit of own trumpet blowing....but if your little mole friends are right..then 19th April looks like a pretty good call. Another triumph for TWO

Interesting, thanks Justin.

My biggest concern right now is the warm waters developing in Regions 1 and 2 of the Pacific. I hope we're not going back to El Nino.

blizzard of 78:

Brian Gaze:

Sevendust:

I recall Jonny got a bit of flack last year for doing something similar in May.

To be fair to Jonny the MetO do much of the groundwork for their winter forecast in May, and they have done well during recent years. So I'd have thought this is a decent and valid topic for discussion. FWIW, I'd not be surprised to see the MetO call a cold one this year, BUT (BUT..BUT..BUT) it's a huge gamble. They'll cover themselves with something along the lines of, "but we don't know whether the warming of recent years will have an impact". I think they did this in 2005/06. It's worth remembering that the MetO produced some research a couple of years ago suggesting that the years ahead bring an increased risk of -NAO conditions.

 

This is a very interesting topic Brian.

 I think the MetO are getting wise to the massive media over-reaction that accompanies even three days of northerly winds these days. To be honest I think that even if they could genuinely see another 47,63 or 79 on the cards I don,t think they would put it out there in September or October for public consumption. They would probably go for some thing like '' considerably colder than average and then ratchet it up with each monthly update.  One only has to look at the c**p that was printed in the media ahead of 2005/6 to see what would happen if the MetO publicly went the whole hog for a genuinely hard winter.

Having said that I,m sure they would let their commercial clients know their private thoughts well ahead of time if they really did see a hard winter on the cards. 

You make an interesting point Blizzard.

In the light of the oil peak, fuel cost inflation, impending recession etc. etc. I'm sure the meeja will jump on any story about a cold/cool winter forecast with a frenzied apocolyptic glee. I can just see the headlines in the Daily "Excess" now... They'll certainly be blaming Broon, Badger and the rest of ZaNu Labour's politburo for the cold

Ah well...only a couple of days to go to see if the MetO is gonna call cold