Issued Thursday 25th April 2024
Issued 23rd April 2024
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Friday: Showery outbreaks of rain push into the south west and possibly other parts of the south through the day. Areas to the north have a mix of sunny spells and showers. Rather cold for late April.
Saturday: Outbreaks of rain in southern and central regions become showery and then fade away. Northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland have sunny spells and showers. Generally chilly, but in the south east it will be milder.
Sunday: Outbreaks of rain push northeastwards across England and steadily clear. Showers develop to their north and west, but there should be a good deal of dry weather with variable amounts of cloud.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Changeable. Showers or longer spells of rain are possible in all regions, but to begin with it could be mostly dry. Towards the end of the period dry conditions are more likely in the north than south. Temperatures climb and there is the potential for it to become warm and humid, possibly leading to thundery showers in the south and east.
Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.
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A warm and humid start is forecast. Showers are likely, particularly in the south where they could be heavy and thundery. In the north there will be more emphasis on dry and bright periods. Later on temperatures dip and further showers or even longer spells of rain affect all regions.
Forecast confidence is low.
Areas of low pressure will be meandering around the UK for much of the week. A fragmented jet stream makes pinning down their movements very difficult. As a result it is difficult to be confident about the details of the weather, but the general theme is a changeable one. Later on high pressure may have more influence in the north and west.
The chart below is from the GFS model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 15:00, Monday 29th April.
High pressure is likely to be centred to the northwest early on, with areas of low pressure having more influence in the south. Later on a transition to a more westerly based pattern may take place.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Sunday 5th May.
The forecast period begins with chilly conditions and frost remains a widespread risk. However, temperatures will be trending upwards and by the start of the second week warm and humid conditions may develop.
The chart below shows forecast temperatures at 05:00am, Saturday 27th April.
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