Ensemble forecasts generate multiple weather predictions to account for uncertainties. Imagine running a weather model many times, each with slightly different starting conditions. By analyzing the range of these forecasts, we gain a better understanding of the most likely weather scenario and its potential variability.
The charts here use data from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), a version of the GFS model run 30 times to provide this range of forecasts. pen_spark
Uses GEFS data with updates at 07:15 GMT, 13:15 GMT, 19:15 GMT, 01:15 GMT
Runs out to 16 days ahead
Spring bank holiday weather
Summer 2024 potentially very warm?
Unsettled weather for the early May bank holiday?
Hot and thundery summer?
Will the relentless rain relent for Easter?
Daily weather by email
14 day outlook
Monthly outlook
Seasonal outlook
Christmas weather
See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data