Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
Posted Tue 26th June 19:08
A transition to more changeable and cooler weather is expected next week. However, there is uncertainty and a different outcome remains possible.
Today's GEFS 06z ensemble for London shows upper air temperatures falling in early July and the risk of rain increasing. Upper air temperatures for much of the coming week remain between +10C and +15C. The 30 year average is about +7C so the anomaly is marked, but between July 3rd and 11th the GEFS mean falls to just below the 30 year average.
Between now and July 1st it's a dry picture but then the risk of rain increases. Initially that's probably caused by a thundery area of rain pushing up from southern Europe. In the longer term it suggests the possibility of low pressure areas sitting close to the UK.
However a few recent computer model runs have shown a different outcome with a trough becoming stuck to the west or southwest of the UK. That leads to VERY warm air being sucked up from North Africa again.
The GEM 12z chart below shows the sort of thing, although it would be thundery too. Hot and bothered!
Cooler and more changeable continues to be the form horse for next week. Nonetheless further hot weather is a possibility that can't be discounted yet.
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