The latest weather buzz

Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Snow risk

Posted Sat 8th December 17:50

Next week's weather details are uncertain. The UK is likely to be close to the border between a cold continental air mass and a milder Atlantic one. That could lead to the risk of snow.  

Battleground Britain

During the coming days high pressure builds over Scandinavia and it leads to colder air moving westwards across Europe. It isn't certain whether the cold will reach the UK and recent computer model run have been shifting the boundary eastwards and westwards.

If the cold makes it here there is the potential for snow during the second half of the week as weather fronts begin to return from the Atlantic. The general consensus continues to be that weather fronts will push through, so snow would be transient.

Today's GFS 12z run restricts the snow risk next Thursday and Friday to the northern half of the UK. It is a plausible outcome but the 12z run shows the Scandinavian high pressure block holding out against the Atlantic for longer than recent GFS runs. If that trend continues subsequent updates could start to show the risk of more widespread snow.

Today's CMC GEM 12z run does show the risk of more widespread snow, albeit not until later in the week. The chart below is for 09:00 GMT, Saturday 15th December. A disturbance from the Atlantic pushes eastwards across the UK bringing a period of snow on its leading edge before milder air turns it back to rain. 

At this stage it's not worth worrying about the details. It's just worth remembering that snow is a possibility at some point in the second half of next week. For it to happen we'll either need to be lucky or unlucky, depending on your point of view.  

TL;DR

Next week the UK is expected to be close to the border between a cold continental air mass and a mild Atlantic one. That set-up could lead to snow for a time. High ground in the north is most likely to see snow but some computer models show a period of it affecting the south before milder air returns.

Live chart preview

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