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Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

UK temperature record and 40C

Published 16th July 2022, 15:45

Computer models are consistently showing the incoming heatwave being short, but probably the most intense the UK has experienced.  

Records set to be broken

Temperature records are set to be broken on Monday and Tuesday. There is still uncertainty about which day will be hotter, but what is clear is that Monday night will be exceptional too. A new high minimum overnight temperature is expected to be set.

Many computer model runs, such as the GFS 06z which the chart above was produced from, continue to show 40C being reached on one or both of the days. However, there is also good agreement that it will turn a lot cooler on Wednesday in all of the UK.

In the longer term things become less clear with some computer models suggesting that it will turn hot again through the last week of July.

Latest temperature probabilities

What are the chances of a new UK maximum temperature record being set or 40C reached on Monday 18th July and Tuesday 19th July? 

To help answer those questions a tracker is available. It is being updated regularly and can be viewed by following the link below.  

UK heatwave tracker July 2022

TL;DR

Monday and Tuesday are expected to bring unprecedented levels of heat. By Wednesday it will be turning cooler, but in the longer term there is a chance of hot weather returning.  

Latest charts

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vinceedwards27 2 years ago Show replies(0)

40C Woodhall Spa.

Update

vinceedwards27 2 years ago Show replies(0)

On target for 40C. I see a fair number of 38Cs scattered across central and eastern England. 12.37.

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vinceedwards27 2 years ago Show replies(0)

38C just north of Cambridge. 16.13.

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brian gaze 2 years ago Show replies(0)

Tuesday looks like peak heat at the moment. Keep an eye on the UK heatwave tracker July 2022 for the latest odds.

Update

vinceedwards27 2 years ago Show replies(0)

I see that the maximum daytime temperature forecast has been downgraded by a couple of degrees since yesterday's forecast. Yesterday the Monday forecast for Coventry was 41C, but today 39C is favoured. I know this seems picky, and we shouldn't be wishing disaster on people, but I am a weather freak. I wanted to see 40C breached.

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