Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
Published 19th June, 15:56
Warmer than average weather looks set to continue for much of the rest of June. How high could temperatures go?
The provisional Central England Temperature (CET) recorded until June 18th is 16.5°C, which is 2.4°C above the long-term average. As a result, the month has the potential to be notably warm, provided temperatures do not significantly decrease during its final third. Will they?
The ensemble chart below displays temperature forecasts for London, encompassing all runs in the GEFS model, for the next 16 days. Over the upcoming week, there is an upward trend, and maximum temperatures in the low 30°Cs seem distinctly possible.
GEFS London 2m temperature forecasts
However, starting around June 28th, the forecast becomes more uncertain. While most individual runs indicate slightly lower temperatures, a few of them indicate higher values reaching the mid-30°C range.
In recent years, there have been several instances of extreme heat, notably last July when temperatures surpassed 40°C for the first time on record. Therefore, the possibility of a very hot period towards the end of June or early July cannot be ruled out. However, currently, most of the computer model runs do not show this scenario.
The chart below displays the maximum temperatures forecasted by one of the hottest runs in the latest GEFS update at the time of writing this piece. It indicates a top value of 36°C in East Anglia. However, it is important to remember that this is just one of over thirty runs in the ensemble model, and the majority of the others are currently showing significantly lower temperatures.
Nevertheless, this particular run suggests that temperatures as high as 36°C are possible, although they are currently considered unlikely. When looking this far ahead, it is crucial to monitor how subsequent updates unfold. For instance, will there be more runs indicating such high temperatures or fewer?
One other key consideration is rain or the lack of it. During this time of year, rainfall is often characterized by showers, leading to significant variations in amounts over short distances. This is in contrast to the autumn and winter months when more organized bands of rain move in from the Atlantic. With that being said, the general suggestion is that the wettest conditions will be in the northwest, while the driest conditions will prevail in the south. In large part that is due to high pressure building from the Azores towards north western Europe.
A significant amount of warm or very warm weather is expected throughout the remainder of June. There is potential for hot temperatures, especially in the southern regions, with values reaching the low 30°C range. Currently, only a few model runs suggest they will climb into the mid-30°C range in the upcoming weeks, but the possibility is not ruled out.
There is also expected to be a considerable amount of dry weather, although isolated thundery downpours may occur at times. In the northwest, wetter periods are likely due to the influence of the jet stream and areas of low pressure tracking to the northwest of the UK.
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