Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
Published 6th January, 12:38
The rain has stopped, at least for now, and during the next few days the focus will be on colder weather. Does that mean snow is likely? Although the details are uncertain, there is the potential for at least a little in places. In particular, some computer models are suggesting that parts of the south could see snow on Monday night and Tuesday.
In a word, the answer is yes, as the UKV chart below illustrates. It shows forecast air temperatures at approximately 1500m above sea level at midnight on Monday. Across the southern half of the UK values are widely at or below -10C, which almost guarantees that any precipitation which falls will be snow even at low levels.
Being cold enough for snow is one thing, but will there actually be any around? Using data from the same computer model, the chart below shows forecast precipitation. The pink shading indicates is used to indicate where snow is forecast to be falling, so if this is correct, parts of southern and central England, as well as South Wales are most likely to see a few flakes.
The heaviest snow is in the London area and other parts of the south. However, forecasting snow in the UK is always very tricky, so this chart - as well as the others - is being used to give an indication of the possibilities, and the details are uncertain, with different computer models showing varying likelihoods of snow.
The snow shown in the chart above is patchy and not heavy. Therefore, significant accumulations are not being suggested, at least apart from in the Scottish mountains!
The chart below shows forecast snow depths at 03:00, Tuesday 9th January. Apart from the bright colours over the Scottish mountains, indicating deep snow, very close inspection reveals a dusting of snow in parts of southern England. You may need to look very closely, but it is there!
Other models suggest more than a dusting of snow is possible in parts of the south and south east. For example, the next chart which is generated using data from the DWD ICON model, valid for 06:00 Tuesday. On this one, more appreciable snow is shown in southeastern England, in particular along the Thames Valley and towards London. Amounts are still not large, but a covering of 1cm or so is being indicated.
Finally, the precipitation type chart below, generated using data from the GFS model, shows patchy outbreaks of light snow pushing westwards across southern England during Monday night and into Tuesday morning. It could lead to a covering in the south eastern corner and possibly to the south of London.
In summary, snow showers may push westwards across southern and central parts areas on Monday night and into Tuesday. Current guidance suggests that amounts of snow will not be large, but accumulations are possible. At the time of publishing, the sweet spot for snow could well be the Thames Valley area. Therefore, it is possible that London could see its first snow of the winter.
Through the second half of next week temperatures may well recover a little. However, a second plunge of cold air, this time coming from the north due to high pressure building over Greenland, is very possible as we head towards the middle of January. Forecast details are uncertain, but the greatest likelihood of snow from this pattern would be in the northern half of the United Kingdom, at least initially.
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