Issued Thursday 31st October 2024
Issued 29th October 2024
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Friday: Patchy outbreaks of rain slowly push southwards across Scotland. Elsewhere it will be dry with early mist and fog lifting to leave sunny spells in places.
Saturday: In southern and central regions it remains mostly dry with variable amounts of mist and cloud. In the north overcast skies are expected and patchy outbreaks of rain develop at times, especially in the north west.
Sunday: Mostly dry, though in the north west the risk of light spells of rain remains. The brightest conditions are expected to be in southern and central regions. Patchy fog is likely early and late in the day.
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday: Completely dry weather is likely in southern, central and eastern areas. Patchy fog continues to be a risk. In the north and the north west it should also be mostly dry, but a band of rain may push northeastwards through the middle of the period.
Forecast confidence is high falling to medium.
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A good deal of dry weather is likely in most of the UK early on. The exception could be the far north west where the chance of rain remains higher. Fog develops on some nights and patchy frost is possible. Daytime temperatures should be close to or slightly above the norm but where fog lingers, it remains cold. Towards the end of the week the chance of rain may increase, particularly in the west.
Forecast confidence is low.
High pressure dominates the weather so it will often be settled. That said, there are indications of an Atlantic disturbance brushing northern and western areas during the second half of the week.
The chart below is from the GFS model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 15:00, Monday 4th November.
High pressure is expected to be centred close to the south east of Britain. Towards the end of the period its influence could start to decline, allowing Atlantic disturbances to push farther eastwards. The air mass under the high pressure will be a warm one, but temperatures at the surface are less certain due to very short days and calm conditions potentially allowing a temperature inversion to develop.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Sunday 10th November.
An unusually lengthy settled period of weather is forecast. Daytime temperatures will probably be close to or above the average, but some chilly nights with patchy frost and fog are possible.
The GFS chart below shows forecast temperatures at 15:00 on Saturday 2nd November.
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