Issued Sunday 17th November 2024
Issued 19th November 2024
The 14 day video forecast is usually updated weekly.
The 14 day discussion is usually updated twice each week.
Monday: Outbreaks of rain push eastwards across Northern Ireland, Wales and England. On their northern edge they turn to sleet and snow, with disruptive accumulations likely in parts of northern England, especially over high ground. The snow risk could extend into southern Scotland and possibly northern parts of the Midlands. Ahead of the rain it will be dry and bright. In northern Scotland there will be a mix of sunny spells and snow showers. Very cold in the north, milder in the south and particularly the south west. Becoming windy in the south.
Tuesday: The remnants of the rain, sleet and snow clear eastwards in England. All parts of the UK then have sunny spells, but there will be wintry showers in Northern Ireland, north western England and eastern coastal counties. In the northern half of Scotland heavy snow showers continue, leading to significant accumulations in places. Cold or very cold. A widespread frost quickly develops in the evening and it will be severe in the north.
Wednesday: Much of the UK will be dry and bright. However, wintry showers continue in the same areas as on Tuesday, and there is a risk of more prolonged outbreaks of snow in northern Scotland. By the evening outbreaks of rain or sleet may push into the south west. Cold or very cold. Frost widespread early and late.
Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday: At the start of the period outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow may push eastwards across southern Britain. To the north a mix of sunny spells and wintry showers is expected. Milder conditions will probably spread northwards later on, but their rate of progression is very uncertain. In the south the emphasis may be on wet and windy conditions, with the north staying colder and possibly having further spells of sleet and snow.
Forecast confidence is high.
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An unsettled start to the period is expected with a risk of rain in the south and snow in the north. In the south it probably becomes mild, but colder conditions could persist in the north. Through the rest of the week the changeable theme continues, leading to a risk of showers, as well as longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. There is a lot of uncertainty about the outlook for temperatures, with small variations in expected weather patterns having a big impact. In general terms, the likelihood of mostly cold conditions persisting in the north is significantly higher than in the south. Frost is most likely in the north. Strong winds are most likely in southern and central areas.
Forecast confidence is very low.
An area of low pressure pushes eastwards early on. As it pulls away cold air returns southwards across all areas. During the second half of the week further areas of low pressure move in from the Atlantic. The first one of these could give a period of sleet and snow in southern Britain.
The chart below is from the GFS model. It shows pressure and precipitation at 06:00, Thursday 21st November.
The boundary between cold and mild air masses may remain close to the UK throughout the week. That leads to a greater likelihood of wet and windy periods the southern half of the UK. In the north, particularly Scotland, incursions of cold air are more likely, thus leading to a risk of sleet and snow.
The chart below shows the GEFS forecast mean surface level pressure on Wednesday 27th November.
Cold and wintry weather continues for much of the first week. There is a risk of disruptive snow in places and frost become widespread. Towards the end of the first week milder air starts to return from the southwest. However, the cold to mild boundary could remain close to or over the UK for much of the second week.
The UKV chart below shows forecast precipitation at 22:00 on Monday 18th November.
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