Christmas weather forecast

Christmas countdown

Christmas weather forecast

TheWeatherOutlook says is our view. Regular updates are running.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates are running.

TheWeatherOutlook says

Welcome to the Christmas Day 2024 countdown.

Background

We're back! That soon came around! A very big welcome to this year's fun look at the Christmas weather prospects. Expect regular updates as we head through the coming weeks. Initially it's a case of looking at analogue years, in other words finding the best matches with 2024 and seeing what the weather was like at Christmas in each of them. Also, seasonal models give some indications of temperature trends in the coming months. There are background signals too which are known to have a correlation with the UK's weather.

That said, this is for fun because usually it's not until the middle of December when the fog starts to lift and the Christmas Day weather comes into site. So please enjoy this feature but remember that we are NOT claiming to be able to do the impossible and give an accurate forecast for the Christmas Day weather months in advance! 

Santa's Puzzle Forecast

PS: Our new game, Santa's Puzzle Forecast is now playable, with a new puzzle appearing every day between now and 25th December. Also, you can still play the popular Save our white Christmas game freely this season. Remember that if you want your game scores identifiable you'll need to be logged in with a site (not forum account). You can register here. 

Christmas weather update: 17th November

Only 38 sleeps until Christmas at the time of this update. In the next few days the extended range GEFS model will be covering the big day and video forecasts will start! In the short term a period of much colder weather will bring snow to parts of the UK. So what's the latest view on the prospects of a white Christmas?  

The thirteenth update increases the percentage chances of snow in the north and the south. The best matching analogues for the weather patterns of the last 30 days are 2007, 1982 and 2008. Although they aren't favourable, December 2008 was a cold month on the whole. See the Weather Analogue Index for the best matches. Also, there are some indications from longer range models of blocking patterns continuing in December.

Percentage chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 9%

Updates: 1: 01/09/24, 2: 10/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 21/09, 5: 28/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10, 8: 20/10, 9: 21/10, 10: 26/10, 11: 02/11, 12: 11/11, 13: 17/11

Video forecast

Update 5 - filmed 18th December 2023.

Christmas period charts and data

Computer model charts and data to help you make your own forecast.

Forecast 850hPa temp anomaly

The GEFS35 charts don't yet reach the Christmas period but they soon will. Therefore, charts are now being displayed which go to the middle part of December.

Blue shading indicates colder than the 30 year average.

Red shading indicates warmer than the 30 year average.

The ghost of Christmas past

If the past is the best guide to the future, you may find it interesting to check out these charts from Christmases gone. Links open in a new window.

1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

1981 - 2010 temperature average

Average December 25th temperatures for the 1981 - 2010 period are shown on the chart below.

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