GFSP still less keen on the early trough disruption, everything further east than even the GFSP 0Z at this stage. Still brings lying snow to virtually anywhere by Tuesday though.

Indeed, a remarkable evolution.

Although there's not the same build of pressure over Greenland as late December 1962, the trough moving down into cold air from a previous easterly is similar.  

Widely 15-20 cm of snow from that trough; 36 hours of snowfall for the east/SE.

....and the Daily Express!

But it's as good as you get from 0 to 384 really in terms of cold and followed by proper locked in severe cold so let's hope this stays this way or even upgrades and we eventually see cross model agreement. We have been waiting almost half of the winter to see anything of interest so it's about time we saw something wintry. Maybe this could be the time the models have finally picked up on the SSW around Xmas and into New Year. 

I wonder if this outlook could paralyse the UK any more than the politicians are currently doing!

Yep it does indeed pee on our collective parade . Flat at 168h . Let's see where it goes from here but BIG caution still folks!

So just s the OP run upgrades the para downgrades each run:

Could be more different event if it tried. Para shows temps widely up to 10c midday next Thursday 24th:

The Op run shows temps barely above freezing by midday on 24th with a mild south westerly:

 5 or 6 ensembles look similar to the Para at 168h the rest are cold .

Yes the GEFS is out to 192hrs and the majority take the cold route. The mean has crept up a little as there are two or three more members going milder than there were on the 0Z.

The GFSP is a worry, an interesting test of old vs new!

Squeaky bum time! It really is incredible how different the Para is to its older brother by 216h.

So irritating. All last week we were waiting for the GFS to catch up with the Parallel and now its the other way around. You couldn't make it up. Still, that GFS run was outstanding.

12z runs are the most important runs of the winter so far. Exciting times

Indeed - so frustrating how one goes mild when the other goes cold although the Para does end blocked and cold:

Hope the parallel will catch up with the GFS Op run now.

Despite a stunning Op run, the ensemble is a slight downgrade for Brighton Snow.

Purdy!

The Wall - we built the Wall!

The 00z GFS, UKMO, and the ECMWF Models are supporting a cold and changeable forecast.

The SW UK, Monday evening to Tuesday and Southern UK- could see some weather action to do with winter weather.

And there is a possibillity but not yet likely but have the chance- to go either Cold with easterly to NE winds by Wednesday to Saturday if the GFS and ECMWF 00z runs are to be believed, and the deflection on Tuesday to Thursday of NW Atlantic NE USA PV Low to Southeast Greenland and West SW of Iceland is being clearly shown on the GFS and ECMWF 00z runs.

NE and Eastern Central N. Atlantic blocking High North and West UK High Pressure is backed up from Wednesday to Saturday 23rd to 26th January based on GFS and ECMWF 00z runs.

But NW to North Atlantic Zonal west to east flow with Cold and less cold mix of weather and Deep areas of Low Pressure are suggested by the ICON, GFS Para, GEM as well.

The UKMO at T144 is not that impressive but is great enough for Southeastern UK.

GFS ENS is quite cold throughout both day and night.

The Flip Flop style of the Model runs is there but ECMWF and GFS 12z, and 00z Model runs are still looking fine.

I wonder whether the NW and North Atlantic Zonal train can be stopped on GFS and ECMWF 12z today- they are saying that blocking over UK and Eastern N. Atlantic is winning but then in the afternoon and evening today we may get some negative response!!.

Next 96 hours we need the support from the UKMO, ECMWF and GFS to be sustained.

.

Parallel is a new and (supposedly) improved iteration of the model, which is intended to replace the old version. For a time they run in parallel, to compare their performance.

The pantomime in the model output has a lot of parallels with the pantomime being played out in Parliament - no one can agree on the way forward and no-one knows how it will end.

The 06Z Op is a thing of beauty but it would cause a few problems we probably could best do without right now