Looks like the GEFS 06z has now come to cross model agreement that we will see a cold spell - the mean is below the 30 year average throughout - the question now is how cold at the moment it looks cold to very cold but not the bitter freezing cold like beast from the east time cold.

The parallel run is insanely snowy, especially for the northern half of the country. In fact for most of Europe:

Absolutely crazy output here. Looks like one of Brian's upside-down charts!

With guidence from the ec46 and strat warming etc we could very likely be on the cusb of something really special. The 06z run and ensembles really picking up on the downwelling in the extended range with the runs a lot more believable in the mid to longer term showing a very -AO rather than the opposite.
Can not remember seeing such a strong signal for prolonged cold and wintry weather in the internet era and that includes 09/10 and Dec 10 with the signal seemingly  getting stronger by the day. We could very well be looking at a historical spell of winter weather for the UK not seen since......

I think that might be a bit over the top - most of the output so far suggests maxima a couple of degrees above zero for most rather than a prolonged freeze or ice days. It's not deep -15C or -20C cold air like we have seen in the past (or even at the end of Feb last year I think the -18C isotherm just about made landfall).

Can we call that a "Bartlett Low"?  

The PARA is even closer to this but the low approaching from the SW saves the day and sucks the dallying <-10 850 cold from the East coast towards it. Still one to watch in the 12s, I think

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&time=204&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Jeff

Surely it's a Gaze Cyclone? 

I thought that too, that it may be possible to draw some similarities with ‘47 and with the timing of the onset of cold too, Perhaps we are on the cusp of something epic..... then again.

Ill remain on edge until some of those annoying mild stranglers go. None the less, its good to finally have something to look forward to. Its been a long wait these last 7 weeks

You could of course be right but with the evidence (guidence) at hand I wouldn't bet against it at the moment. If the country saw say a cet return for the period 25th Jan to 25th Feb of -1.5c or lower that I think would be more historically significant than a four or five day bitterly cold spell. Besides I certainly would not rule out seeing some bitterly cold uppers ( -15c or lower). My thoughts from over 10 or so days ago was for deep cold by 25th which may only be a few days premature.

Isn't it great though to even have the possibility of such synoptics and weather and the discussion that goes with it.

For me, nothing epic in view yet but I agree the pattern looks like evolving into something colder. Perhaps average or a little below the average next week.  FI brings the greater chance of deeper cold but what goes on in FI stays in FI for me.

Deep cold in the reliable time-frame with NWP consensus is what we need.

This is very interesting. Highly coherent occlusion moving across the UK. As I've said before this is exactly the sort of event where you do not need low uppers to get snow. The only downside is its a cold occlusion, a warm occlusion would be better. As such its *very marginal*. I think we need uppers of -4C to make this work, uppers are in the -2 to -3C range.

This is so margingal it could really go either way, its going to be a complete nightmare to call this one right.

Remember it well,  started Saturday evening 18th Feb 78 and by the morning we had 15 foot drifts against our house in Frome. 

Yes I much prefer the charts that are Peaches 

The last chart on the 'GFSP' looks very Iceagesque.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU06_384_2.png

Warm Arctic, freakish displaced cold over the continental mid latitudes. 

London snow row total> 160. Not sure if I've seen that before.

Brighton up to 139

nighttime records could be broken under that setup

I see this chart comes from wetterzentrale - where are the GFSP charts located? I can't find them. (Obviously, I know where they are on TWO :-))

Go to the main GFS page and then choose PARA in the members section at bottom left. Or here: run: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=0&run=12&lid=PARA&h=0&tr=3&mv=0