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kmoorman
18 January 2019 17:18:40

the control run also drags milder air into the mix from the south, hopefully not a trend


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
tallyho_83
18 January 2019 17:19:31

Again midday on Tuesday the Parallel run s - temps barely above freezing anywhere in the UK:


 



 


Operational has it a little milder by a degree or two:



 


GEM is milder or less cold in the south on Tuesday:



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Russwirral
18 January 2019 17:22:46
Details aside as that will fluctuate, it seems a consistent factor is prolonged cold. Somewhere in the UK looks to stay sub zero for a while once it kicks in next week.

People saying down south not always in the cold - not always a bad thing. Usually a case they are closer to the moisture and the heavier snowfalls.

This could be one of those 1 in 5 yr events that seem to ruin future winter expectations. Fingers crossed the charts arent lying.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
18 January 2019 17:23:11

.


We have to still keep watching this Space ahem.


There is no concrete certainty that we in the UK could be getting some very cold and snowy weather!.


But today's 12z UKMO is great, perfect for bringing us winter wonderland.  Polar NW, North then NNE flow.


The Breakdown cannot yet be suggested from 27th and 28th Janaury, so stay calm.


The Cold Blocking North Europe and NE Atlantic High could be back from Tuesday 29th January fending off any possible breakdown on Sunday and Monday Jan. 27 and 28th.


As we all watch this unfold, I say all to play for.  Situation currently very cold in NE off Newfoundland SW of Greenland where our Polar Vortex currently is.


Westerly winds to it's South hah!, and SW and East as well as Central USA, some areas of Low Pressure and patches of wet and windy weather currently there.  Canada and far Northern USA is quite cold, away from Central USA and it currently quite mild in South USA.


More updates I will post, but what the GFS and UKMO is showing us is very nice indeed.


The mood in here much depends when we get closer, say we shall patiently wait until Tuesday to Thursday comes in itself.


.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Russwirral
18 January 2019 17:25:11


Don't know what this means but this ended up over the UK when we had beast from the east - the dark blue thickness line covering most of Scotland and N. England in FI?



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


510Dam  line.  Not completely unusual for Scotland, but a very rare visitor.  Would demonstrate just how cold the air would be wrapped up in that.  It usually tickles the very north, andno further, so this would be a good example of an even rarer encounter with the UK.


Rob K
18 January 2019 17:25:12
The GFSP has consistently had a thinner more SW-NE oriented high pressure than the op and most of the GEFS.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
18 January 2019 17:25:55
If the op run comes off, the progged 850 temps are likely to be too high. Would expect -10 and lower over the UK widely - with a lot of snow in some parts
kmoorman
18 January 2019 17:29:32

Having skipped through the GFS ensemble members, I'll say 1 thing - for the south there's going to be a MASSIVE spread at 850hpa temp in the 2nd half. 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Whether Idle
18 January 2019 17:29:36

ICON has other ideas.  I noted in the build up to the failed cold spell post Christmas, it was lauded for some of the charts it was showing, so for the sake of some balance, here is the 180 chart from the 12z suite: 



Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
18 January 2019 17:31:25
A few more of those "mild stranglers" on the 12Z short ensemble. Still looks ok though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
kmoorman
18 January 2019 17:33:25

A few more of those "mild stranglers" on the 12Z short ensemble. Still looks ok though.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I'm not a fan of the ensemble re-diverging after seemingly reaching agreement...   it worries me.   


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
18 January 2019 17:35:50

.


Nice to see very cold NW winds on Tuesday and Wednesday 22-23 Jan. then they turning very cold NE flow by Thursday to Sunday, GFS Parallel run really good.


Far NW and Far N. Atlantic and Greenland next week and for weekend of 26-27th, the zonal Low Pressure train going straight across Central Arctic Sea and Svalbard.


North Europe High UK High from Thursday onwards, NE Atlantic also blocked by High Pressure, great 12z GFS Parallel run.


.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
eddied
18 January 2019 17:36:14

A few more of those "mild stranglers" on the 12Z short ensemble. Still looks ok though.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


stranglers or stragglers?


Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
Northern Sky
18 January 2019 17:38:01

All the background signals and teleconnections that the LRF experts have been talking about for what seems like ages seem to be coming together nicely. For weeks the change to a colder pattern has been forecast for around mid Jan and here we are. We would have to be unlucky to miss out here - yes I know we are unlucky quite often!


Great runs tonight so far though.

Quantum
18 January 2019 17:38:01

So we have cross model agreement across the board. Looking very encouraging. Will the ECM agree?


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
18 January 2019 17:39:08


 


I'm not a fan of the ensemble re-diverging after seemingly reaching agreement...   it worries me.   


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


 


GEFS are completely insane all over the place but many/most good for at least some point. Looks like the first set to be seriously affected by the SSW. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
18 January 2019 17:39:28


 


stranglers or stragglers?


Originally Posted by: eddied 


Thats my fault lol


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
18 January 2019 17:41:16

Massive snow event at 222h on the Para .


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
18 January 2019 17:45:42


Massive snow event at 222h on the Para .


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


OK that's fairly good. Virtually the whole of Europe snow covered!



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
18 January 2019 17:47:07

The para-lyse run and chart @ 240z:




Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
18 January 2019 17:48:12


 


OK that's fairly good. Virtually the whole of Europe snow covered!



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Midday daytime maxes @ 240:



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


kmoorman
18 January 2019 17:49:35


 


Midday daytime maxes @ 240:



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


That's mental....    


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Solar Cycles
18 January 2019 17:59:10
Odds on a lengthy cold spell have shortened dramatically over the last twenty four hours though I’m still a little dubious with some of the outlandish charts on offer. Still it looks like we’ll be seeing some colder weather on the way which should go some way to lowering the overall CET for the winter thus far.
ballamar
18 January 2019 18:01:18
Slider at end of parallel run with heights building to the east - well if it goes tits up shows what can happen!!
Arcus
18 January 2019 18:03:14
Still have nagging reservations on this set-up - tomorrow's runs will be key on handling the US storm.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl

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