Really interesting final point in the Met Office article - that the source regions for our hot airmasses have seen more climatic warming than the UK. Considering that this warming can then be focused across a smaller region by dynamic forcing to further increase the anomalies, perhaps it's no wonder that we're breaking records from large imports of hot air lasting only 1-3 days, as opposed to an unusually long day-on-day heat build across the UK (the old July record pre-2015, set during exceptionally prolonged anticyclonic conditions in 1976) and/or Europe (exceptionally lengthy 2003 heatwave) that those old records were the result of.
Briefly on the models for 1st half Aug - I'm of the expectation that they're leading us up the garden path with another round of bias toward shifting the mean trough east when it'll actually stay west. We'll see if that bears fruit for the third time this summer... what if there's an inverse to 'third time's the charm'?
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser