a broken clock is right twice a day....

Their journalism is the same for their weather as with everything else... tell lies until they hit gold.

Deja vu again!!

Also funny how they tag the Met Office in the URL link and when they talk about first widespread frosts back up their point by including one temp model of a GFS run and then go on to say beneath temperature model map that temperatures are forecast to drop in the winter' or something crass! - haha well as if we don;t know that there will be frost and that temps down't fall during winter months!! DOH! 

It's James Madden?

Sunday 6 Oct - Tuesday 15 Oct

Outbreaks of rain are likely on Sunday, mainly in the north and east. Drier further west though probably turning wet and windy in the far west later. The unsettled weather looks set to continue to start next week with bands of rain moving eastwards. Brighter but showery and breezy weather is then likely to follow. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but feeling colder in the wind and rain. Later in the week and the following weekend, there is lower confidence, though the weather is likely to remain changeable. A northwest/southeast split is possible with northern and western parts remaining unsettled. There are some signs for drier and brighter weather to develop by the end of the period, increasing the risk of fog overnight.

Wednesday 16 Oct - Wednesday 30 Oct

Confidence in the forecast is low throughout this period. There are some signs for a drier, brighter and more settled spell during the middle of the month. However, changeable conditions are more likely to dominate towards the end of October, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Temperatures are likely to be near or a touch above average for October, with any quieter spells bringing overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 7 Oct - Wednesday 16 Oct

A spell of wet and windy weather is likely on Monday as a band of rain moves east across the country, followed by sunshine and showers. The unsettled weather looks set to continue through the start of next week with scattered showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but feeling colder in the wind and rain. Later in the week and the following weekend, there is lower confidence, though the weather is likely to remain changeable. However, some longer drier spells may develop in the south and east. There are some signs for drier and brighter weather to develop more widely by the end of the period, increasing the risk of fog overnight.

Thursday 17 Oct - Thursday 31 Oct

Confidence in the forecast is low throughout this period. There are some signs for a drier, brighter and more settled spell during the middle of the month. However, changeable conditions are more likely to dominate towards the end of October, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Temperatures are likely to be near or a touch above average for October, with any quieter spells bringing overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and very wet at times, but drier later

_________________________________

Wednesday 2 October – Sunday 6 October

A dry cold snap midweek, then turning mild and wet

After a cold start, Wednesday is expected to be a mostly dry and sunny day but with temperatures falling several degrees below average. This will make things feel noticeably colder than recent days, especially at night with calm, clear skies. Temperatures will plummet widely in the low single figures, and some places in northern England and Scotland will see some air frosts bringing a slight glaze onto cars, buildings, and plants.

Thursday will continue with the cold snap, although it should be just a touch less cold than Wednesday morning. However, the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo will be moving towards Ireland from the southwest, and this will send a warm front into the UK from the west later in the day. This front will bring plenty of rain, with a few bands of heavy rain, as well as some much warmer air from the southwest. Temperatures overnight into Friday are expected to recover and return to near average.

Meanwhile the remnants of Lorenzo will move near the west coast of Ireland and Northern Ireland, bringing a risk of some severe gales and very high surf on the coast. Overnight into Friday morning strong winds may spread into West Scotland, where a further risk of gales is expected on the coast. A strong high pressure centre to the northeast will prevent Lorenzo from continuing northwards and instead the low is expected to make a right-hand turn and track into Britain. However, as it does this is will rapidly weaken, so while heavy rain is likely, strong winds are not.

A brief break in the rain on Saturday in the wake of Lorenzo will lead a return of active Atlantic fronts sweeping in from the west by Sunday.

Monday 7 October – Sunday 13 October

Unsettled weather to continue but feeling mild.

Heading into the first full week of October, the weather pattern is expected to keep things unsettled across the UK with low pressure tracks moving overhead or just to the north. It looks like low pressure will tend to remain near or over Scandinavia through the week, bringing frontal systems into the UK from the northwest. This will lead to a cooler picture for Scotland and Northern Ireland, but nearby high pressure to the south and southwest will tend to keep things a bit milder in the South and West.

It will likely remain rather unsettled across the country as frontal systems are expected to be frequent. Northerly or north-westerly winds will bring in cooler air, but there are no strong signals at this time for any wintry precipitation anywhere - it just won't quite be cold enough yet. With high pressure nearby, a few drier interludes are likely between fronts, and these may be accompanied by a brief cold snap with more northerly winds, although these will be dry and sunny.

Confidence is a bit lower than normal for this range, as there is still a lot of uncertainty on how the atmosphere will react to the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo in the previous week (which is helping to drive low pressure into Scandinavia). There is a 30% risk that the jet stream may not strengthen much as Lorenzo weakens, which will keep high pressure ridging stronger into Northwest Europe and the UK. This will push active frontal systems off to the north and low pressure into Scandinavia, leading to an overall drier but colder picture.

Monday 14 October – Sunday 27 October

Gradual shift into a more settled, warmer pattern.

Unfortunately, due to Atlantic hurricanes and a few other tropical weather patterns, forecast confidence for mid-to-late October remains rather low at the moment. We currently expect that the more active low pressure tracks across the UK from earlier in the month will gradually get pushed out of the area by encroaching high pressure as we head into the second half of the month. This will likely be a gradual shift that takes place for several days as opposed to a more abrupt change.

As Atlantic hurricane season winds down deeper into autumn, some tropical weather patterns favour a building ridge of high pressure in North Europe, which we expected to end up near Scandinavia. This should bring a break in the unsettled and very wet weather across the UK, although some occasional rain may reach western areas at times. High pressure in Scandinavia will favour easterly winds through Central Europe, and while we do expect East Europe and Germany to turn a bit colder, the UK should remain relatively mild.

However, this comes with a rather large caveat that Atlantic hurricane season may not wind down. The typical Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 1st, so we may well see further strong hurricanes develop. These storms can strongly influence the weather patterns even thousands of miles away over Europe and will tend to wreck long-term forecasts as the large scale computer models can struggle to forecast them in advance. Therefore, there is currently a quite high risk (40%) that low pressure tracks will remain over the UK and things will stay more unsettled for the rest of the month.

Further ahead

We will take a closer look as the potential for some cold snaps through October and see if our milder pattern shift will hold.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

UK weather: Gales and heavy rain as remnants of hurricane arrive

Quote

 

The remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo are expected to bring gales to parts of the UK and Ireland. The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for wind for parts of Northern Ireland, which is in force from 3pm to 10pm on Thursday. A separate yellow wind warning has been issued for Cornwall, most of Devon and coastal parts of southwest Wales. This warning is in place from 4am to 4pm on Friday. The weather could cause power loss, as well as disrupt travel.

https://news.sky.com/story/gales-and-heavy-rain-expected-as-storm-lorenzo-hits-uk-and-ireland-11825814

Week ahead

Storm Lorenzo weakening
Staying unsettled

Outlook

Strong winds
Spells of rain
Colder next weekend?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49928482

Tuesday 8 Oct - Thursday 17 Oct

After early rain clears from the southeast, Tuesday is expected to be a windy day of sunshine and blustery showers, some heavy with hail and thunder. The unsettled weather looks set to continue for the rest of the week with scattered showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but feeling colder in the wind and rain. Over the following weekend the weather may well remain changeable though there is less confidence about this. However, some longer drier spells may develop in the south and east. There are some signs for drier and brighter weather to develop more widely by the end of the period, increasing the risk of fog overnight.

Friday 18 Oct - Friday 1 Nov

Confidence in the forecast is low throughout this period. There are some signs for a drier, brighter and more settled spell during the middle of the month. However, changeable conditions are more likely to dominate towards the end of October, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Temperatures are likely to be near or a touch above average for October, though any quieter spells could bring overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• More spells of rain for a time


• Emerging signs of change


• Drier and quieter end to October

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* 

https://weathertrending.com/2019/10/04/john-hammond-lets-calm-things-down/

UK weather: Britain hit by SNOW in 10 days as forecasters warn COLDEST winter for 70 years

  Quote

 

Temperatures will sink below freezing with weather models revealing the first snow will blanket parts of Scotland around mid-month. Freezing air from the North Pole will descend across the UK swept in by low-pressure stretching across the north Atlantic from Greenland to the northwest coast of Ireland. Long-range weather forecasts have started to agree on the autumn outlook with Northern Europe facing an unusually harsh winter.

Cold weather will be driven by a pattern of atmospheric blocking which tends to stop milder westerly winds reaching the UK while opening the gates to colder easterlies. Such a block was the driver for last year’s savage Beast from the East which brought a historic whiteout across Britain during the final weeks of winter. Thermometers will start to fall around the middle of this month heralding the run up to a brutally cold end to the year. Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden said: “October is now looking like it will turn out to be colder than average with more of a chance of something wintery setting in through the second half of the month.

"There is a strong chance of widespread frosts and the chance of snowfall which will set the scene for November. “This will pave the way for what is shaping up to be a colder than average winter with some extreme cold weather events. “While these could start to make an impact within the next few weeks they will be particularly troublesome from December onwards. “Snow events have been few and far between in recent years, but this winter is looking favourable to bring snow event after snow event as weather systems from the Atlantic clash with cold stagnated air over the UK.”

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1186627/uk-weather-forecast-snow-met-office-weather-warning-long-range-bbc-weather

Wednesday 9 Oct - Friday 18 Oct

Wednesday will be another breezy day with sunshine and blustery showers. The unsettled weather looks set to continue for the rest of the week with scattered showers or longer spells of rain at times. It will often be windy, particularly near northern and western coasts, where occasional gales are likely. The best of any sunshine will be in the south and east. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but it will feel colder in the wind and rain. Over the following weekend the weather may well remain changeable though there is less confidence about this. However, some longer drier spells may develop in the east. The continuing unsettled weather will mean that nights will probably be cloudy, with very little in the way of frost.

Saturday 19 Oct - Saturday 2 Nov

Changeable conditions could well dominate towards the end of October, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Some drier and brighter spells are likely, though these may be short-lived. Temperatures will probably be around average for October, though in those drier spells, overnight frost and fog will become more widespread. At the end of the period, the northwest is likely to stay on the wet and windy side, with greater chance of drier and brighter weather in the southeast though there is low confidence this far in advance.

https://metoffice.gov.uk 

There we go, that’s better. 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Very wet and quite windy. Perhaps less so later

_________________________________

Saturday 5 October – Sunday 13 October

Rain at first then showery and thundery midweek

Recent very wet and unsettled weather across the country looks set to continue for the first full week of October for most. Saturday will start out mostly dry with just a few showers in the east, but a front pushing in from the west will bring rain to western areas by midday. This will spread more widely across western Britain into the afternoon. Overnight, rain will continue eastwards into central and eastern Britain, some of which will be heavy.

Sunday will see further wet weather across eastern Britain, whilst further west, it will be drier and brighter. Yet more rain will spread east during Monday whilst Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will see low pressure the dominant feature, bringing sunshine and showers across the country. As well as the showers it will also be rather windy, particularly towards the north-west of the UK. There are growing signs of a more active weather system moving into the UK towards the end of the week and into the weekend. There is still some uncertainty on the exact timing of this feature, but this is expected to bring more widespread heavy rain and a brief strong wind event.

Monday 14 October – Sunday 20 October

Wet or very wet in places. Windy at times

Low pressure is likely to remain near to the UK into mid-October, which will keep things wet and windy at times for most of the country. However, the main difference from earlier in October will be the development of a stronger North Atlantic jet stream. The jet stream is a fast-moving ribbon of air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, and a stronger jet stream will mean more frequent, faster-moving rain-bearing fronts pushing across the UK.

Some of these frontal systems will bring some strong winds as well, and gales are expected at times, especially across northern and western coasts. Scotland will likely stay rather windy throughout the week. As rain will tend to push in from the west, westernmost counties will generally see the highest rainfall totals, which could result in some local flooding.

Monday 21 October – Sunday 3 November

Gradual pattern shift with more settled weather.

While October looks like it will be a fairly wet and breezy month, there are some signs that towards late October, we will see a shift in the weather pattern. High pressure near Spain will drift a little further north into central Europe. This will mean Atlantic weather systems will get pushed a bit further northwest, allowing the UK to see some drier spells and milder air. This should be a gradual change, with fronts becoming more infrequent with some longer lived high pressure ridges in between them. Milder air will feed into the South and Southeast more frequently, so temperatures will likely begin to climb slightly above average here.

Weakened Atlantic fronts will still drift east, so while not completely dry, it will be much less wet than earlier in the month. However, all this comes with a hefty caveat of low confidence. October is known as a transition month between summer and winter, and the weather tends to become much more volatile. Our long range computer models can struggle with capturing this changeability. Therefore, there is a 40% chance that low pressure stays dominant into November, making the whole of October very wet and quite windy.

Further ahead

Mid-October is looking very wet and windy, and we will try and pin down some specifics for any significant wind events.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

'70' years? I thought it was 100 years last time?

Thursday 10 Oct - Saturday 19 Oct

The unsettled weather looks set to continue for the rest of the week with scattered showers or longer spells of rain at times. It will often be windy, particularly near northern and western coasts, where occasional gales are likely. The best of any sunshine will be in the south and east. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but it will feel colder in the wind and rain. Over the following weekend the weather is likely to remain changeable, with the wettest weather still most likely in the west. However, some longer drier spells may develop in the east. As a result of the unsettled weather, overnight frosts are unlikely untill the end of the period when occassional frost and fog is possible.

Saturday 19 Oct - Saturday 2 Nov

Changeable conditions could well dominate through the end of October and into the start of November, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Some drier and brighter spells are likely, though these may be short-lived. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, though in those drier spells, overnight frost and fog will become more widespread. At the end of the period, the northwest is likely to stay on the wet and windy side, with a greater chance of drier and brighter weather in the southeast, though there is low confidence this far in advance.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Weather forecast UK: 100-day storm to batter Britain until 2020 in washout

Britain is braced for a wash-out winter with three months of storms and torrential downpours – starting today. Weather forecast experts say unprecedented rainfall could be dumped on the country over the next 100 days. The warning comes as a 1,000-mile-wide, low-pressure vortex is set to batter the UK until Wednesday bringing rain and gusts of up to 60mph in the north west. It threatens to become autumn’s first named storm, with large areas of the nation facing six inches of rain and 22ft waves predicted.

And forecasters predict severe wind and rain could batter us into January – heralding a wet and windy end to the year. Gales of more than 100mph are expected, which could cause power cuts and travel chaos. It is more bad news after the Daily Star Sunday revealed last week that an Arctic freeze is on the way.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/uk-weather-forecast-100-day-20470877

Friday 11 Oct - Sunday 20 Oct

The unsettled weather looks set to continue through the middle of October with scattered showers or longer spells of rain at times, but also some drier and more settled interludes. It will often be windy, particularly near northern and western coasts, where occasional gales are likely. The best of any dry and sunny weather will be in the south and east of the UK. Temperatures will be around the average for the time of year to begin the period, but it will feel colder in the wind and rain. During any drier and clearer interludes, which may only be short-lived, there is a risk of seeing overnight frost and fog. As we head further into the month, it may turn a little colder.

Monday 21 Oct - Monday 4 Nov

Changeable conditions could well dominate through the end of October and into the start of November, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Some drier and brighter spells are likely, though these may be short-lived. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, though in those drier spells, overnight frost and fog will become more widespread. At the end of the period, the northwest is likely to stay on the wet and windy side, with a greater chance of drier and brighter weather in the southeast, though there is low confidence this far in advance.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Take your pick this morning the beeb are saying it's going to be pouring down quite widely at 11am but it's also going to be dry quite widely

The beebs main website 

The beebs video tweet

Saturday 12 Oct - Monday 21 Oct

The unsettled weather looks set to continue through the middle of October with scattered showers or longer spells of rain at times, but also some drier and more settled interludes. It will often be windy, particularly near northern and western coasts, where occasional gales are likely. The best of any dry and sunny weather will be in the south and east of the UK. Temperatures will be around the average for the time of year to begin the period, but it will feel colder in the wind and rain. During any drier and clearer interludes, which may only be short-lived, there is a risk of seeing overnight frost and fog. As we head further into the month, it may turn a little colder.

Tuesday 22 Oct - Tuesday 5 Nov

Changeable conditions could well dominate through the end of October and into the start of November, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Some drier and brighter spells are likely, though these may be short-lived. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, though in those drier spells, overnight frost and fog will become more widespread. At the end of the period, the northwest is likely to stay on the wet and windy side, with a greater chance of drier and brighter weather in the southeast, though there is low confidence this far in advance.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 13 Oct - Tuesday 22 Oct

The unsettled theme looks set to continue throughout the period with rain or showers at times. Despite this, there should be some brief interludes of more settled periods, with spells of sunshine by day. It will often be windy, particularly in the north and west of the country, with the threat of gales in places. Southern and eastern parts will often be a little drier with more in the way of brightness. Temperatures will remain around the average for this time of the year, although it will often feel colder in the wind and rain. In the short-lived periods of drier and clearer conditions, there is a potential for some overnight frost or fog. This could be slow to clear by day.

Wednesday 23 Oct - Wednesday 6 Nov

Changeable conditions could well dominate through the end of October and into the start of November, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Some drier and brighter spells are likely, though these may be short-lived. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, though in those drier spells, overnight frost and fog will become more widespread. At the end of the period, the northwest is likely to stay on the wet and windy side, with a greater chance of drier and brighter weather 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often wet and windy but mild.

_________________________________

Wednesday 9 October – Sunday 13 October

Windy and showery with prolonged rain at times.

The remainder of this week will be often windy with showers and temperatures near or a little above normal. Most places will have rather mild nights too, with any frost limited to upland glens of northeast Scotland.

On Wednesday, much of the UK will have some bright or sunny intervals. However, it will be breezy with showers in places; the showers most frequent and heavy in the west of the UK and also in the far south-east of England. Into Wednesday night, it will remain breezy with further showers in the west.

Thursday and Friday will have further showers or longer outbreaks of rain, most frequently in the north and west of the UK. The south-eastern quarter of England will have the best of any lengthier periods of dry weather. Over England and Wales, it will be windy on Friday, perhaps with gusts up to 40-50mph quite widely.

The unsettled theme will continue into this weekend with rain at times for many.

Monday 14 October – Sunday 20 October

Unsettled with rain and brisk winds at times.

The unsettled theme to the weather looks like persisting through next week. Low pressure areas over the north-east Atlantic will bring bands of rain and showers to many areas. The rain is likely to be heavy at times, particularly over western areas, bringing a threat of local flooding. The rain is likely to be accompanied by strong winds at times. Current indications are for the strongest winds and most widespread rain to be around the middle part of next week.

Despite an unsettled picture, it will be a rather mild week for most with temperatures mainly a little above the seasonal average. Once again, there should be a lack of night frosts. However, it does look like turning a touch cooler towards the end of the week, perhaps with winds switching from a south or south-westerly to a westerly direction by then.

Monday 21 October – Sunday 3 November

Further wet and windy weather for a time.

Unsettled conditions are expected to persist for a while longer with further bands of rain and brisk winds spreading from the west at times. Initially, it should stay rather mild too with temperatures a little above the seasonal average.

However, towards the turn of the month, we expect a more changeable weather pattern over the UK as low pressure areas starts to alternate with high pressure areas. Therefore, we should see some lengthier drier and calmer interludes in between the bands of rain. Temperatures are likely to fall nearer to the seasonal average, too, perhaps with a few chillier nights and occasional mist and fog.

Further ahead

October is shaping up to be a wet and windy month. We will take another look to see how things could change going into November.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 14 Oct - Wednesday 23 Oct

Monday morning is likely to be bright, although showers could linger in the southeast. Beyond that, the unsettled theme looks set to continue throughout the period with rain or showers at times. There should be some brief interludes of more settled periods, with spells of sunshine by day. It will often be windy, particularly in the north and west, with gales in places. Southern and eastern parts will often be a little drier with more in the way of brightness. Temperatures will remain around average for this time of the year, although it will often feel colder in the wind and rain. In the short-lived periods of drier and clearer conditions, there is a potential for some overnight frost or fog. This could be slow to clear by day.

Thursday 24 Oct - Thursday 7 Nov

Changeable conditions could well dominate through the end of October and into the start of November, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Some drier and brighter spells are likely, though these may be short-lived. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, though in those drier spells, overnight frost and fog will become more widespread. In early November, the northwest is likely to stay on the wet and windy side, with a greater chance of drier and brighter weather in the southeast, though there is low confidence this far in advance.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 15 Oct - Thursday 24 Oct

Tuesday will be mostly dry with sunny spells; however, the northwest will become wetter and windier later. Beyond that, the unsettled theme looks set to continue with rain or showers at times. There should be some brief episodes of more settled weather, with spells of sunshine by day. It will often be windy, particularly in the north and west, with gales in places. Southern and eastern parts will generally be a little drier with more in the way of brightness. Temperatures should remain around average for this time of the year, although it may feel colder at times in the wind and rain. In the short-lived settled periods of drier and clearer conditions, there is the potential for some overnight frost or fog, which would be slow to clear.

Thursday 24 Oct - Thursday 7 Nov

Changeable conditions could well dominate through the end of October and into the start of November, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Some drier and brighter spells are likely, though these may be short-lived. Temperatures will probably be around average for the time of year, though in those drier spells, overnight frost and fog will become more widespread. In early November, the northwest is likely to stay on the wet and windy side, with a greater chance of drier and brighter weather in the southeast, though there is low confidence this far in advance.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/