Or a ScotRail train.

Hi David, I'd say even better, the Caledonian Sleeper...just enjoyed a 100% refund on the trip the other week to Inverness..Sleeper was more than an hour late, so all our money back...even better the scenery north of Pitlochry was stunning which we could see in daylight... snow on the tops at Dromachter.... I was tempted to book another trip based on the likelihood of the service being late and us getting our money back again....apols for the completely off topic post!  I can't really contribute to this thread in a meaningful manner really!

Nice 

I see the GFS 12z op shows another brief northerly passing through towards the end of the month https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_252_1.png 

Maybe, maybe just maybe a hint of significant cold appearing in the start of December. Probably only a 20% chance at this stage but worth keeping an eye on . Some hope for Coldies.

Maybe not so much 'significant' - but nonetheless it does look as though something may be trying to brew..

I suppose it depends on what peoples definition of 'significant' are but we'd all take a little Northerly at the back end of next week even if it toppled over after a few days. 

The significant cold has my patience.. for now. :P 

 Our good friend -5 850's flirt with the country around Friday/Saturday next week. 

12z certainly keeping the interest up 

I was thinking more like November/December 2010.

All JFF but something of interest:

This week's LP is a flabby affair and slowly drifts off SE, gone by Sun 24th. Then GFS has an increasingly intense series of depressions running across  N of Scotland  up to Norway, with westerlies penetrating well into Siberia by Thu 28th. That LP gives us a back edge northerly on the Fri but the westerlies resume. The precipitation pattern in week 2 says it all http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

ECM rather different - the westerlies are not so strong and the Atlantic low sticks around NW Britain and doesn't link up with the LP over N Norway, so there's a ridge of HP around the Baltic on the 28th and southerlies not northerlies.

No trace of the HP over the S which was there at the end of yesterday's GFS run

Ens show rain generally from the 23rd, more and a bit earlier in the S, while temps have a brief bit of warmth around 25th (as yesterday), then a big scrmable either side of the seasonal average.

Keep watching as change is in the air, but I'd hold off on the expectation of any long deep cold

A Stratospheric warming and displacement has already commenced and will gather strength in the coming days. Whilst increasing our chances of some decent weather, the usual caveats apply - weakening and displacing the PV provides conditions under which we can get decent winter weather, but it all depends on how the displacement plays out in the Trop - we can always end up on the wrong side of any meridional flow which results as a consequence. Also, there is a time lag of a few weeks usually, before the disruption in the strat propagates down to the Trop, something itself which is never guaranteed to occur.

Here here!  Bring it on. I only just put my bikini away too.

Some stark changes already on the 12z at 120hrs

6z 

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_120_1.png

12z

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

This chart looks a mess at 201hrs. Pattern looks disorganised.

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_201_1.png

Inter run changes suggest this all remains volatile and could go either way. People have often said when you start seeing charts like that the models don't have a clue