Yep, I've got the feeling this thread might be quite interesting this week. The storm track is holding and things look great for Southern Ontario (great if you enjoy snowstorms that is!). Henry Margusity sums up the scope of this storm rather well in this video. The Groundhog Day storm, as it's been called, will impact a vast area of North America and will feature some of the most disruptive weather possible including blizzard conditions, significant ice and tornadoes.

Obviously we have somewhat of a southern Ontario bias on this threadand let's face it much of that area is overdue a really big snowstorm. As things look right now that should be addressed by Thursday. EC aren't messing around on their winter storm watch:

This will be the first Major winter storm of the season for the Toronto area, and the most significant storm of the season for many regions outside the traditional snow belts. The heavy snowfall and blowing snow will cause whiteout conditions making for extremely hazardous driving conditions. The public should be prepared to change plans accordingly to avoid travel during the storm. This storm has the potential to create near-paralyzing conditions. 

I'll be interested to read Brett Anderson's update as last night he was calling for the worst of the snow to be north of the Golden Horseshoe (while ironically GEM hints at taking the heaviest snow south of Lake Ontario) - looking at the latest models I think the west end of Lake Ontario looks to get pasted. EC are calling for widespread 20-30cm amounts - I reckon with enhancement off the Lake 40cm (or more) is possible (perhaps even likely) for some towards Hamilton and St Catherines. It's still too early to talk of things being 'nailed on' (I hate that term anyway!) but it certainly looks like nail and hammer are at the ready.

More tomorrow...

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You beat me to it Graeme with the EC warning! They have a Winter Storm watch out for the City of Hamilton and reading their forecasts plus what TWN are saying, 40cm is the lowest amount (should the storm track hold!) that the Hamilton area can expect. It has actually already started to snow here in Downtown Hamilton this afternoon, light but a streamer of sorts already. This is the forecasted, 3 to 4 inches from the first piece of energy going through ahead of the major event Tuesday into Wednesday.

I am contemplating staying and working from home tomorrow and more likely on Wednesday. IF, it all holds then we will see dangerous travelling conditions, disruption to public transport links and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Hamilton Public Schools board pre-emptely closed all schools in the area before the storm arrives to save major issues being created on Wednesday morning.

Hate to say it Paul, but you'd be better ski-ing up the QEW than driving on Wednesday. If, you could delay then try later on Wednesday once the ploughs get going.

Biased yes Graeme, but i know you will agree, this has been 4 years in the making and definately one to enjoy and record! Here's the Spec's excellent early doors round-up of what to expect - http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/479749--storm-could-drop-30-cm-on-us.

I have a snowblower, but also can enlist the help of my wonderful neighbour who in the past has attached a mini-snowplough to the front of his sit-on tractor for grass cutting and sweeps the snow away better around here than the council could ever imagine! Some sight to see when required.

All health warnings of course required and not counting chickens but it looks 85% nailed on and the hammer is serviceable and ready for the final nail to go in to hit the go button! More tomorrow.

Snowy Regards

Christ on a Cracker Calgary!!! It was -28C this morning and 48 hours ago it was a balmy +15c at YYC and I heard from a friend who lives in Heritage near Chinook centre [SE Calgary]. Now today it's -21c tomorrow -11c and then by Thursday it will be back up to plus +6c - what a way to get a migraine!

Well at least there has been some fresh snow in Banff for my skiing in a few weeks time. Thanks for your update Peter. I will be staying near Kensington.

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Just looking at the weather in NYC where my cousin works on Queens for Coca Cola! And another in Conneticut for Mars I think.

From my uncle who live sin Alexandria [Springfield west Virginia] compared with last year Washington has seen less snowfall but it has lasted longer than that "snowmageddon" of last year! That was WET snow anyway. But even then it warmed up! This winter in Washington DC they have missed out on it! Whilst there is snow everywhere it is not as deep. The heavier snow has been from Philadelphia, Baltimore and NYC northwards:

Last week I was surprised that NY were getting one snowstorm every week now it looks like they are having one every 48 hours. Take a look at this storm AGAIN:

http://www.accuweather.com/us/ny/new-york/10017/city-weather-forecast.asp 

Joe ******i said this year would see less snowfall for eastern districts/NE States then last year and it has been the opposite.

Seriously now, this cold snowy weather must have a negative effect on their economy? How does NYC cope with 10 inches of snow one day 12 inches of snow 22 inches [Boxing Day] of snow, followed by 8 inches of snow two days later, and an additional 16 inches of snow, 13 inches of snow [last week] then tomorrow up to 6" of snow before freezing rain. This is day after day after day!!!

Over here London Heathrow there was what 9cm of snow and the airport closed for days!

Also since the snowy/cold weather there - it has been uneventful January over here in the UK? Is there a change in this La Nina, is it strengthening or is it just the jet stream!?

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Also take look at BBC weather graphics and run the sequence showing the track and extent of the snowstorm, and the actual scale size of the winterstorm from Tuesday to Thursday:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/101 

Stretches from Chicago IL, USA right up to Ottawa ON, CANADA, then NYC - That is almost 700 miles apart in distance is it not? That the equivalent of the distance from London to Prague in the Czech Rep.

I know it is the USA but my gosh! What a storm that has to be the most widespread snowfall surely now one thats for sure!

I mean can anyone imagine Europe having a snowstorm extending from Madrid, Prague to Berlin to Paris and Amsterdam to London etc over here!? Thats what they are getting in terms of snow? Just shows how small Europe is in comparison to N. America. I guess we have the Gulf Stream and the English channel so it will never happen.

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The big 'event' in this 'event' will be the ice storm. AccuWeather, for example, is forecasting ice accumulation of up to 1.6" in Indianapolis. Lots of damage can be expected from that.

Yes, certainly in terms of size of the area affected and the intensity of the precipitation (record breaking snowfall likely for some (eg Chicago, Detroit),  a crippling ice storm for others) it's a real monster of a storm. I think this one will be remembered for a long time.

A nice summary from Weather.com here with some graphics here

More later!

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Seems to be getting quite severe in the Midwest now - blizzard conditions being reported widely, Dallas has just been snotted and it'll be Chicago's turn later in the day with over a foot expected there I think, some webcams below

 

Dallas:

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/texas/dallas/dealeyplaza/

Oklahoma City:

www.oktraffic.org

Tulsa OK:

http://www.instacam.com/showcam.asp?id=KJRHT&size=S

Wichita, Kansas:

http://www.360wichita.com/wichitacam/

Kansas City:

http://www.fox4kc.com/traffic/

Chicago:

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/

http://media.myfoxchicago.com/fox/webcam2.html

Detroit:

http://www.detroithistorical.org/webcam/

 

Oh and the windchill in Oklahoma City is currently is -25c, and -33c in Dodge City Kansas!

Thanks for the links Patrick - I only have the Chicago one saved for regular viewing. Nice walk through the development and trajectory of the storm by Elliot Abrams here.

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This is Brett Anderson's updated snowfall forecast above for this storm across Eastern Canada. Upgrading his total for most of the GTA but also bringing more Sleet/Ice pellets into the mix for locales near Lake Erie. I made it into work this morning as the snow wasn't so bad initially as i'd thought and EC in their warning below acknowlege that due to low level cloud, the feriocity of the Lake effect snowbands from Ontario has been lessened.

We have seen snow about an inch fell this morning off the Lake adding to the accumulations we got last evening from phase one of the storm's energy. So, with fairly light snowfall continuing this afternoon ahead of the main storm, we probably won't see the massive snowtotals locally that were experienced for Burlington/Hamilton in Feb 2007.

Still looks good though for a 45-50cm storm and crippling travelling conditions really kicking in after tea-time lasting through most of Wednesday until dinner tomorrow. The Spec, covers the storm well and the steps Hamilton is taking ahead of the event - http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/480113--hamilton-braces-for-storm.

Here is the said Environment Canada Winter Storm Warning, one which always gets the emotions going! -

City of Hamilton
2:28 PM EST Tuesday 01 February 2011
Winter storm warning for
City of Hamilton continued

Major winter storm tonight into groundhog day.

Light snow has fallen across portions of Southern Ontario this morning ahead of the upcoming storm. Most locales received a centimetre or two. It has now tapered off to isolated flurries.

Lake effect flurries are also coming onshore into the Hamilton area today. An additional few centimetres of snow are likely in and around the Hamilton area by tonight. The risk of a heavier snow squall is becoming less likely due to the shallow nature of the low cloud from the lake.

Heavy snow from the developing storm will arrive in Southwestern Ontario this evening and quickly spread northeast to the greater Toronto area shortly after midnight and into Eastern Ontario by Wednesday morning. Widespread total snowfall amounts of 20 to 30 cm are likely before the snow begins to taper off Wednesday morning in the southwest and in the afternoon farther east.

In addition strong and gusty northeast winds will accompany the snow. This will cause frequent whiteout conditions in blowing snow..Resulting in near blizzard conditions especially overnight into Wednesday morning.

The snow may change to ice pellets and freezing rain for a while tonight and tomorrow morning for regions near Lake Erie.

This will be the first Major winter storm of the season for the Toronto area..And the strongest storm of the season for many regions outside the traditional snow belts. The heavy snowfall and blowing snow will cause whiteout conditions making for extremely hazardous driving conditions.

This major winter storm is quite large in size and will have a major impact on travel especially tonight and on Wednesday.

This is a warning that dangerous winter weather conditions are imminent or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

The major winter storm is over Arkansas and is tracking towards the lower Great Lakes. It will likely cross Northern Ohio overnight then into New York state on Wednesday. Major winter storms originating in Texas usually have a fairly large band of heavy snow in areas on the cold..Or north side..Of their track..With maximum total snowfall amounts often reaching 30 cm. This winter storm is no exception.

The public should be prepared to change plans accordingly to avoid unnecessary travel during the storm as travelling conditions will be dangerous at times. If driving is necessary, make sure you have an emergency kit. And if your car gets stuck, remain calm and stay in your car.

Environment Canada continues to monitor this dangerous winter storm and will issue further watches and warnings as necessary.

I've highlighed the part about the Blizzard conditions and whiteout because this storm will produce proper Blizzard conditions and whiteouts, nothing like the overuse of the word back in the UK at times to describe some foul but not overly dangerous or deadly weather, excepting parts of the Scottish Highlands. Not overexagerating to say that this storm is life-threatening, not just for Southern Ontario including Toronto & Hamilton but for the Chicagoland area where storm totals will excede 2ft in spots and rival a famous Blizzard there in 1968. In Ohio, where dangerous amounts of Ice will form all the way through PA to NY also. Power outages are a certainty in this situation, maybe for upto a week and with the cold weather plunging in behind - another major problem. And deadly too with the rain and severe weather that this system contains for Southern portions of the U.S. Tornadic actively is highly likely.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR - King City radar latest here.

Now it's a waiting game, will post an update if i can later - if not then tomorrow. Leaving work now and following what most people are planning, a trip to the LCBO and a snowparty! Action stations.....

Take Care

 

Made it home with LCBO receipt in hand! lol Just logged-on and couldn't imagine we'd be dealing with this now :

City of Hamilton
3:30 PM EST Tuesday 01 February 2011
Blizzard warning for
City of Hamilton upgraded from Winter storm warning

Blizzard conditions expected overnight into Wednesday morning.

The major storm which was born in Texas late Monday is approaching Southern Illinois accompanied by an expansive swath of wintery precipitation. Heavy snow will arrive in Southwestern Ontario this evening and quickly spread northeast to the Golden Horseshoe around midnight. Widespread total snowfall amounts of 20 to 30 cm are likely before the snow begins to lighten up Wednesday morning. Locally higher amounts are possible in the Hamilton to St. Catharines corridor.

In addition, strong northeast winds of 40 gusting to 60 or 70 km/h will accompany the snow, creating blizzard conditions.

Note that the blizzard warning criteria for Ontario was changed June 2010 to remove cold wind chill requirements. The new criteria requires a visibility of 400 metres or less in snow and blowing snow accompanied by sustained wind speeds of 40 km/h for at least four hours. This will likely mean more blizzard warnings will be issued in the future.

This is the first widespread blizzard warning for Southern Ontario since March 1993, during the 'storm of the century'.

This is a warning that blizzard conditions are imminent or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Motorists should be prepared to change plans accordingly to avoid unnecessary travel during the storm as conditions will be dangerous. If driving is necessary, make sure you have an emergency kit. And if your car gets stuck, remain calm and remain in your car.

Environment Canada continues to monitor this dangerous winter storm and will issue further watches and warnings as necessary.

Had to post that, i know the criteria changed but this is indeed a 'rare' event for populated areas of the GTA and Golden Horseshoe. TWN now on calling it a storm that Hamilton hasn't witnessed in SEVERAL YEARS!!!!!

Latest also on the radio is that the City of Hamilton is considering very closely to issue a snow emergency which bans vehicles from parking on City boundary streets during the emergency to allow essential vehicles and snow-clearing crews access. I've lived here for 5yrs nearly and i haven't heard talk about a storm like that before.

It's coming, just approaching Detroit and already affecting the Chicagoland area. This could be one to talk about for years to come.

Post later if i can!

great stuff !

send some here over the pond !!

Guest what it is snowing again in NYC for the 11th consecutive day, between then it has been snow showers and flurries and flakes followed by huge mammoth dumpings or blizzards every 48 hours!

I had a skype from my cousin on Queens NYC and they have had more snow this time mixing with rain and tomorrow the snow will turn to freezing rain! They have had several ins I think and this storm is moving towards Connecticut. My uncle in Springfield near DC missed out on the worst of this snowstorm for once. I think this storm effected more inland areas unlike previous storms!

Oh well, now that the snow/sleet and freezing rain will move away up to the Maritimes tomorrow afternoon only to probably allow for another blizzard, snow or ice-storm to develop 48 hours later.

How ever on earth are JFK, La Guardia or Dulles Airports coping with these blizzards of snow day after day, when Heathrow failed to cope with 9cm of snow over a four hour period?

JFK airport does not have a heated runway!

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Great stuff Stewart - thanks for the updates. I think the changes to the criteria for a blizzard warning make a lot of sense. Frankly, who cares about windchill values when you can't see anything due to heavy, wind-driven snow. 

Stay safe but do try to get out and take some photos tomorrow! 

LCBO - ah that brings back the memories!

 

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Evening all

By amazing coincidence I have just returned from the LCBO too . Stuck the car in the garage and I suspect my next trip outside will be with a snow shovel.

Today has been reasonably quiet here, light snow on and off, a breeze but nothing to indicate an approaching storm and no significant accumulation. It's also a little warmer, much warmer than Monday morning which was around -20C, standing on the station platform at 0630 was deeply nasty with the windchill.

In the last hour the wind has suddenly picked up and there is more of a stormy feel to the air. Looking at the radar we have probably 2 hours before the real snow starts and most of the white stuff will fall later tonight and into tomorrow morning.

We're not planning to go skiing until tomorrow evening. If (and it's quite a big if) the main highways are clear by then and we can go, it could be epic with a foot of fresh powder . If the predicted 30cm does materialise there will be significant disruption, including at the airport, likely to be some cancellations. Canada copes better than the UK but if enough snow falls in a short time it takes a while for things to get back to normal.

With this in mind, I'm snowwatching working from home tomorrow, there is a possibility of a school snow day too.

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Blizzard after oklahoma city begin in Chicago...over 50 cm expected.

 

http://www.meteosottoceneri.ch/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48&Itemid=54

Storm now raging in the eastern Great Lakes in the wee hours local time. ROM webcam in T.O.

And the latest US news on the storm from CNN. We can expect a clearer idea of conditions in a few hours time as the locals wake up to the Groundhog Day storm!

The southern plains were hit hard yesterday, with Owasso, Oklahoma picking up an incredible 21" of snow.

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Hmm, just been focusing in on the Toronto area and taking a look at the radar, recent reports and the webcams and I must say things don't look that bad. Most of the heavier precip seems to have banded to the north of Toronto, which as I recall was Brett Anderson's original take on things. It'll be interesting to see the snowfall reports coming in but at this point I don't see anything like 20-30cm being realised for T.O. Of course it's not always easy to tell how conditions are from afar!

Further along the Lake the snow has been heavier in the Hamilton/Burlington area. Hamilton airport has been reporting snow (as opposed to mostly light snow at Pearson) since late last night. I'm sure Paul and Stewart will be around soon to give us a far more accurate take on things than I can provide right now.

Meanwhile, over in Chicago which was pretty much ground zero for this snowstorm there has been 16" at O'Hare and 18" in other parts of the city thus far with a bit more to come today. Report from the Tribune here.

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Morning all, a very quick update 

We have about 20cm of fresh snow I would say, drifting to over a foot in places. So probably towards the lower end of some of the estimates. Still backbreaking to shift from the drive by hand though, and I think the largest overnight snowfall I have seen since moving here 

The snow was falling steadily when I went to bed around midnight, I also had a quick peek at 4am and it was very nasty, blizzard conditions.

Still snowing lightly now so I would guess there is still potential for some more before the system moves through. Looking at the radar we might get a break in the snow and then a little more later in the day. Can't see us making 30cm from this storm but I'll be happy to be proved wrong.

Also still quite windy and there is plenty of snow blowing off the rooftops.

Schools are closed, although I have already seen a plough along one of the more well used minor roads here and SWMBO has managed to get out in the car - winter tyres 

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I'll drink to that.

Some good real-time webcams here from Chicago with lots of snow atm. Webcam 4 doesn't work.

http://www.fineartsbuilding.tv/webcams.html 

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Great reports - and once again I'm jealous to death!

 

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Nice summary of some of the Groundhog Day storm totals thus far in the US from Jesse Ferrell.

Also a piece from the Toronto Star on why the storm wasn't the monster expected for T.O. - also detailing that Hamilton has been hardest hit area in the GTA (as we expected).

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some great reports guys, very interesting.

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