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Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2020 09:30:19

 2 confirmed cases in England now. it was always going to happen on Brexit day wasn't it.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2020 09:32:53

BREAKING Two confirmed cases of the Coronovirus in the UK confirmed.


The government have confirmed that the two individuals were members of the same family. They haven't yet confirmed if they had recently returned from China. I suspect this is likely. They key is when they arrived back and who they have been in contact for.


I wonder where their location is. 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
xioni2
31 January 2020 09:46:55


BREAKING Two confirmed cases of the Coronovirus in the UK confirmed.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


One of them was Quantum in what experts say it's a mysterious, idiopathic case.

Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2020 09:48:25

Thailand now has 19 cases. An increase of 5 on yesterday. Thailand now has the highest number of cases outside mainland China.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2020 09:50:02


 


One of them was Quantum in what experts say it's a mysterious, idiopathic case.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Not sure why there is a need to be rude. Perhaps keep your smart arse remarks to yourself. Q has posted measured and reasoned arguments on this thread its a shame some have to dip to playground insults.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Arcus
31 January 2020 09:53:29


BREAKING Two confirmed cases of the Coronovirus in the UK confirmed.


The government have confirmed that the two individuals were members of the same family. They haven't yet confirmed if they had recently returned from China. I suspect this is likely. They key is when they arrived back and who they have been in contact for.


I wonder where their location is. 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Have they said they are British nationals? Can't find anything beyond the fact they were members of same family, so could be Chinese nationals visiting UK or Chinese students. 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
xioni2
31 January 2020 09:54:42


Not sure why there is a need to be rude. Perhaps keep your smart arse remarks to yourself. Q has posted measured and reasoned arguments on this thread its a shame some have to dip to playground insults.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


What rudeness and what insult? It was just a joke. Perhaps you should keep your lack of understanding to your self.


As for Q, he may be well meaning but he did manage to really stress Joe unnecessarily. 

Ally Pally Snowman
31 January 2020 09:58:14


Thailand now has 19 cases. An increase of 5 on yesterday. Thailand now has the highest number of cases outside mainland China.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


One of them a taxi driver who hadn't been to China . Will be interesting to see how quickly it spreads in a much hotter country than China,  Will it make a difference. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
31 January 2020 10:01:05


 


Have they said they are British nationals? Can't find anything beyond the fact they were members of same family, so could be Chinese nationals visiting UK or Chinese students. 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 



I wouldn't be surprised if it's the two Chinese tourists in a York Hotel yesterday morning.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18198725.york-hotel-rooms-cordoned-off-coronavirus-fears-chinese-national-taken-ill/

North York Moors weather 
Quantum
31 January 2020 10:03:00




I wouldn't be surprised if it's the two Chinese tourists in a York Hotel yesterday morning.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18198725.york-hotel-rooms-cordoned-off-coronavirus-fears-chinese-national-taken-ill/


Originally Posted by: four 


I'm not sure why they don't just release the information. It's only going to encourage needless speculation.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2020 10:27:52


 


I'm not sure why they don't just release the information. It's only going to encourage needless speculation.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Apparently a hospital in Hertfordshire was evacuated last night after two patients were suspected of having the virus. If they were in that waiting room for a while this could be a significant worry.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Maunder Minimum
31 January 2020 10:37:16


 


 


One of them a taxi driver who hadn't been to China . Will be interesting to see how quickly it spreads in a much hotter country than China,  Will it make a difference. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


A taxi driver will have come into contact with an awful lot of people whilst he was incubating the disease.


P.S. The Italian authorities claim this threat is "contained", but the couple in question had been travelling around Italy for a week prior to being diagnosed as confirmed coronavirus cases:


https://www.thelocal.it/20200131/italy-suspends-all-china-flights-after-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-in-rome


 

New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
31 January 2020 10:41:12


 


A taxi driver will have come into contact with an awful lot of people whilst he was incubating the disease.


P.S. The Italian authorities claim this threat is "contained", but the couple in question had been travelling around Italy for a week prior to being diagnosed as confirmed coronavirus cases:


https://www.thelocal.it/20200131/italy-suspends-all-china-flights-after-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-in-rome


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Not necessarily ‘in contact’ with many and they will trace everyone if it’s true. It’s what they do and they’re very good at it.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2020 10:55:07

PA are saying that the two cases in the UK are being treated in Newcastle

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Arcus
31 January 2020 10:56:23




I wouldn't be surprised if it's the two Chinese tourists in a York Hotel yesterday morning.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18198725.york-hotel-rooms-cordoned-off-coronavirus-fears-chinese-national-taken-ill/


Originally Posted by: four 


They are being treated at Newcastle, so it's possible (as York won't have the facilities, though I'd have thought it would be Leeds).

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2020 10:57:05

Japan cases have now increased to 17.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2020 11:12:40

New Government Advice:


1. Anyone coming back from China with respiratory symptoms should self isolate for 14 days.
2. Anyone coming back from Wuhan, with symptoms or not, should self isolate for 14 days.


This is poor and inadequate advise

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Quantum
31 January 2020 11:12:49


PA are saying that the two cases in the UK are being treated in Newcastle


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


That makes me speculate it could have been the York case.


Again could be completely wrong.


 


 


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
31 January 2020 11:13:34

From an article on the BBC Website:


"Why is this outbreak more difficult to stop than Sars?


The answer is not down to China - the speed and scale of the country's response to this new virus is widely considered to be unprecedented. The difference is the way the virus behaves inside the human body.


Sars was a brutal infection that you couldn't miss - patients were contagious only when they had symptoms. This made it relatively easy to isolate the sick and quarantine anyone who might have been exposed.


But the new virus, 2019-nCov, is harder to spot and therefore harder to stop.


From the virus's perspective, it has a far smarter evolutionary survival strategy than Sars.


The best estimate is only one-in-five cases cause severe symptoms, so instead of infected people turning up in hospital, you have to go out and find them.


And we are getting detailed documented cases of people spreading the virus before they even have symptoms.


There is a tendency to focus only on how deadly a virus is. But it is this, in combination with a virus's ability to spread, that determines its true threat."

New world order coming.
Quantum
31 January 2020 11:18:55


From an article on the BBC Website:


"Why is this outbreak more difficult to stop than Sars?


The answer is not down to China - the speed and scale of the country's response to this new virus is widely considered to be unprecedented. The difference is the way the virus behaves inside the human body.


Sars was a brutal infection that you couldn't miss - patients were contagious only when they had symptoms. This made it relatively easy to isolate the sick and quarantine anyone who might have been exposed.


But the new virus, 2019-nCov, is harder to spot and therefore harder to stop.


From the virus's perspective, it has a far smarter evolutionary survival strategy than Sars.


The best estimate is only one-in-five cases cause severe symptoms, so instead of infected people turning up in hospital, you have to go out and find them.


And we are getting detailed documented cases of people spreading the virus before they even have symptoms.


There is a tendency to focus only on how deadly a virus is. But it is this, in combination with a virus's ability to spread, that determines its true threat."


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Indeed. If you were designing the 'perfect virus' you'd have very slow progression with symptons gradually becoming more severe and then culiminating in a high mortality rate.


That way the virus can have both high virility and high mortality. My hope is, that it will mutate overtime to become less dangerous as they often do but the long incubation and 'mild symptons' period may prevent that from happening.


 


Also even though we know the virus can be caught during the incubation period it doesn't mean it is as infectious. So do you need close contact to catch it within those first 5 days? I suspect you might.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
31 January 2020 11:43:46


From an article on the BBC Website:


"Why is this outbreak more difficult to stop than Sars?


The answer is not down to China - the speed and scale of the country's response to this new virus is widely considered to be unprecedented. The difference is the way the virus behaves inside the human body.


Sars was a brutal infection that you couldn't miss - patients were contagious only when they had symptoms. This made it relatively easy to isolate the sick and quarantine anyone who might have been exposed.


But the new virus, 2019-nCov, is harder to spot and therefore harder to stop.


From the virus's perspective, it has a far smarter evolutionary survival strategy than Sars.


The best estimate is only one-in-five cases cause severe symptoms, so instead of infected people turning up in hospital, you have to go out and find them.


And we are getting detailed documented cases of people spreading the virus before they even have symptoms.


There is a tendency to focus only on how deadly a virus is. But it is this, in combination with a virus's ability to spread, that determines its true threat."


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I find it fascinating how viruses are given characteristics which almost imply some sort of 'intelligence'.  In reality it's just random evolution and pure chance but with the dice loaded in favour of the virus because of the rate of replication and potential mutation.


As you say, the issue here is the period when the virus can be transmitted before the host shows any symptoms.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
31 January 2020 11:51:08


 


Indeed. If you were designing the 'perfect virus' you'd have very slow progression with symptons gradually becoming more severe and then culiminating in a high mortality rate.


That way the virus can have both high virility and high mortality. My hope is, that it will mutate overtime to become less dangerous as they often do but the long incubation and 'mild symptons' period may prevent that from happening.


 


Also even though we know the virus can be caught during the incubation period it doesn't mean it is as infectious. So do you need close contact to catch it within those first 5 days? I suspect you might.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yes, one of the experts said exactly that: initally, when you have no symptoms the chances of passing it on are low and require more sustained and/or close contact.


As regards designing the 'perfect virus', if it was to be used as a weapon you would want something that kills very quickly with minimal risk of transmission unless you inoculated everyone 'on your side' first and that would surely be leaked to the wider world?

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Essan
31 January 2020 11:51:54


Indeed. If you were designing the 'perfect virus' you'd have very slow progression with symptons gradually becoming more severe and then culiminating in a high mortality rate.


That way the virus can have both high virility and high mortality.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Why would a virus want to kill it's host?  What it wants (from an evolutionary perspective) is high virility and zero mortality.   Then it can go on forever.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
picturesareme
31 January 2020 11:54:34
Now that it's becoming ever increasingly evident that this virus is relatively speaking not a danger to the majority of the population with a mortality rate of around 2%, and a likely anti virus being available within 6 months, how long before governments and health agencies begin to scale back control measures??
Heavy Weather 2013
31 January 2020 12:01:56

Now that it's becoming ever increasingly evident that this virus is relatively speaking not a danger to the majority of the population with a mortality rate of around 2%, and a likely anti virus being available within 6 months, how long before governments and health agencies begin to scale back control measures??

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I suspect they won't. Its not just about mortality rate. People with comprised immune systems will now worry. Equally, now the virus is here you can expect an immediate influx of people worrying about symptoms. This will put pressure on GPs and the NHS.


I am immune comprised and will worry if this spreads in London. I have a flu jab each year which helps mitigate against that. Currently there is nothing. The though of being on the tube atm isnt appealing,


 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
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