theweatheroutlook

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lanky
08 February 2020 09:18:11




We get 50mph+ gusts all the time (one this morning already hardly noticed) Met office is usually very close both timing and highest gust but only if you look shortly before.
They are continually revising it and most times gradually less than suggested 2 or 3 days before - but not always


Originally Posted by: four 


These short term revisions tend to be in connection with the depth and exact trajectory of secondary depressions which zip across on a zonal flow and are often subject to very last minute adjustments


In this case we are talking about a primary feature that has been consistently modelled for several days with a position around NW Scotland and a central pressure about 940-945mb so my guess is that they are going to be pretty spot on this time with just the exact positionaing of the maximum pressure gradient to be observed at the last minute


Unlike the N York Moors any gusts over about 50mph are likely to finish off weak fences, branches and roof tiles and lead to some dispruption


This was the state of my and next door's fences after a maximum gust of about 56mph at Kew Observatory on 23-24 Dec 2013 so I am a bit worried about what 80mph could do !


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Heavy Weather 2013
08 February 2020 09:19:16


 


Amber will be expanded in this morning’s revision round. Red unlikely but you never know - if it is it will use the 12Z or 18Z data and real time to assess the very latest.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Thanks Neil. Much appreciated 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
llamedos
08 February 2020 09:34:23


 


I’ve studied these events for many years. A significant majority of the damage (trees, buildings) with these storms occurs from one or two rogue peak gusts (often associated with trough passage or in rare occasions sting jet impacts).


In a general swathe of 60mph gusts you might get a rogue local 70mph gust and off go your ridge tiles.


Here in The Solent I’m advising against travel tomorrow afternoon but the ‘highlight’ could be the coast. The overtopping still high tide is going to be something else.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

A question.......am I correct in believing that forecasting, even at relatively short notice, the location of a sting jet (given it's size and when it forms) is nigh on impossible ?  

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
CornishBlizzard
08 February 2020 09:51:17
Amber warnings for most of England and Wales now.

Andrew
Par
Cornwall
doctormog
08 February 2020 09:53:21

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-09&id=9b547185-76da-486f-9786-760ccd42761d 

I guess it will be less windy elsewhere or lower probability/greater uncertainty apparently.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
08 February 2020 10:09:14
Every single part of the country covered by warnings, with six separate warnings. Tomorrow looks pretty wild. Time to gather up anything loose in the garden I think.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Global Warming
08 February 2020 10:14:40

Latest 06z ARPEGE run has inland gusts up to 120kph across the whole of the SE at lunchtime tomorrow. Some pockets of 120-130kph gusts especially towards Kent and Essex. 130kph is 80mph.


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2020020806/arpege-11-31-1.png?08-11


ECM also showing gusts well above 70mph inland - as high as 77 mph in my part of the world.


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/gusts-3h-mph/20200209-1800z.html

Ally Pally Snowman
08 February 2020 10:17:04

Amber warnings for most of England and Wales now.

Andrew
Par
Cornwall

Originally Posted by: CornishBlizzard 


 


Reflects the model output well now. If it really starts to kick off tmrw it could go red somewhere. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
cultman1
08 February 2020 10:23:22

all london parks are to be closed tomorrow as a precaution including Hyde Park Richmond Park etc. 

eddied
08 February 2020 10:25:20

Well at least if my roof is already removed it can’t get damaged. And I do have a flimsy bit of tin protecting the rooms inside at least, constructed in the form of a huge sail.  


I should just kiss goodbye to my house now then and spend Sunday in the pub.

Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
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Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
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Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
picturesareme
08 February 2020 11:29:08
Doubt many will be that bothered down here about the wind tomorrow. Its not like a winter gale is unusual, and usually a storm with winds gusting in the proximity of 75-80mph happen at least once a year.

It's not going to stop the joe public.
haghir22
08 February 2020 11:44:53


Well at least if my roof is already removed it can’t get damaged. And I do have a flimsy bit of tin protecting the rooms inside at least, constructed in the form of a huge sail.  


I should just kiss goodbye to my house now then and spend Sunday in the pub.


Originally Posted by: eddied 


See you there or alternatively we’ll help with the clear up!

YNWA
idj20
08 February 2020 11:47:06

Doubt many will be that bothered down here about the wind tomorrow. Its not like a winter gale is unusual, and usually a storm with winds gusting in the proximity of 75-80mph happen at least once a year.

It's not going to stop the joe public.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



That.

While it does look grim for us hardened weather-beaten south coasters, like you say it actually isn't that totally unusual. The main issue is how the expansive and long lasting wind field may come a shock to those living at inland low laying areas not conditioned to regular strong winds (eg, the Midlands, London, etc). 

At my end, I'm really hoping the wind may just have enough of a SW component for my location to be relatively sheltered by the nearby built up hilly alcove, like what happened with Brendan when it was nothing more than a bit of a breeze in my back yard while the other end of the town copped it. 

Folkestone Harbour. 
surbitonweather
08 February 2020 11:51:03


all london parks are to be closed tomorrow as a precaution including Hyde Park Richmond Park etc. 


Originally Posted by: cultman1 


i might be wrong but that’s the first time in years that’s happened........

Surbiton, Surrey 21m ASL
ARTzeman
08 February 2020 11:55:52

All hanging items are now in a brick shed. Bird feeding station feeders are going in the shed later.  Recently planted Hellaborouse will also go in the shed. I Hope the 8x6 foot wooden shed survives the amber warning.





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
roadrunnerajn
08 February 2020 11:57:05
I wouldn’t want to be the owner of one of the many new houses built near the salt flats over the next few days. Big tides, huge surf and 2,500 miles of strong WNW fetch across the Atlantic. That will push the tide in and hold it there.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
surbitonweather
08 February 2020 11:59:20
The MetO often get hammered by the public but it’s fair to say so far they have done an excellent job of modelling Ciara with early warnings. The first yellow warning on Wednesday was released as the low pressure was forming above the Texas Plains.......👍👍
Surbiton, Surrey 21m ASL
idj20
08 February 2020 12:02:36

I wouldn’t want to be the owner of one of the many new houses built near the salt flats over the next few days. Big tides, huge surf and 2,500 miles of strong WNW fetch across the Atlantic. That will push the tide in and hold it there.

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 



Same goes for the proposed flats to be built on the former Rotunda site next to Folkestone harbour where they'll have the sea literally at their front doors. At the moment it's just an extension of the shingle beach.

Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
08 February 2020 12:03:03


All hanging items are now in a brick shed. Bird feeding station feeders are going in the shed later.  Recently planted Hellaborouse will also go in the shed. I Hope the 8x6 foot wooden shed survives the amber warning.


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


https://gfycat.com/eagertautchick-twister 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
idj20
08 February 2020 12:12:34


 


https://gfycat.com/eagertautchick-twister 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



That's how I usually feel just before looking at the latest GFS update at this time of the year. 

Folkestone Harbour. 
Bugglesgate
08 February 2020 12:50:03


 


I’ve studied these events for many years. A significant majority of the damage (trees, buildings) with these storms occurs from one or two rogue peak gusts (often associated with trough passage or in rare occasions sting jet impacts).


In a general swathe of 60mph gusts you might get a rogue local 70mph gust and off go your ridge tiles.


Here in The Solent I’m advising against travel tomorrow afternoon but the ‘highlight’ could be the coast. The overtopping still high tide is going to be something else.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Had mine done a  3 years ago - along with the chimney repointed - Pretty crap  it all needed  doing in a 25 year old house IMHO but a ridge blew off  his Mum's  house and hit the top of my mates car - wrote it off.  Bloody things are a lot bigger than they look from the ground and are certainly capable of killing you if you should get hit by one !


Spent  the morning  reinforcing the fence.  I have a log store against the weakest part so bolted that to the panels - should hold it - sez 'ere


I'm not in Ian's category  but I can't say this type of weather is my favourite - bloody b*astard destructive things gales

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
cultman1
08 February 2020 13:03:03


 


i might be wrong but that’s the first time in years that’s happened........


Originally Posted by: surbitonweather 

yes it’s on the royal parks website and numerous others 

Retron
08 February 2020 13:03:42
FWIW, the Euro4 (a close relative of the UKV used for the Met Office shortrange forecasts) hints at the cold front bringing the strongest winds inland:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/euro4.php?ech=25&mode=11&map=10 

You can see it tracking SE'wards across the Midlands and central southern England around 3 PM - it loses some of its strength as it moves towards the far SE, but in doing so it just prolongs the strong winds for the likes of Kent, Essex and Sussex.

The strongest winds from that are a patch of 140km/h gusts around the Welsh borders, or 87 mph. IF that gust front forms as shown it's going to create chaotic scenes!
Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
08 February 2020 13:19:19

I remember in Jan 1990 Francis Wilson pointing out that it's the acceleration during the gusts that does the most damage, and remembered my O level physics formula list: f=ma.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Heavy Weather 2013
08 February 2020 13:28:56

FWIW, the Euro4 (a close relative of the UKV used for the Met Office shortrange forecasts) hints at the cold front bringing the strongest winds inland:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/euro4.php?ech=25&mode=11&map=10

You can see it tracking SE'wards across the Midlands and central southern England around 3 PM - it loses some of its strength as it moves towards the far SE, but in doing so it just prolongs the strong winds for the likes of Kent, Essex and Sussex.

The strongest winds from that are a patch of 140km/h gusts around the Welsh borders, or 87 mph. IF that gust front forms as shown it's going to create chaotic scenes!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I remember the storm on 30 October 2000. I call it the millennium storm. It was probably the first time I had seen widespread wind damage in London at least. I was too young in 1987.


That event had the strongest winds as the front pushed through around 7am. I haven’t seen anything like it since. Trees were almost horizontal and I suspect that was when most of the damage occurred.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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