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Maunder Minimum
17 February 2020 17:05:10


As has been pointed out, you also concluded your post with the hysterical "so pandemic here we come!"


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


A not unreasonable piece of speculation, if it turns out that a good proportion of those on the Westerdam had become infected and returned to their home countries. The Diamond Princess started with a single infected passenger. We shall see.

New world order coming.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
17 February 2020 17:20:00




A lot of heat and discomfort could be avoided if posters were clearer about their sources so that readers could refer to the original material. 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 



This is a good one.
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
Chrome will translate it.
Or here
I see no particular reason to think the UK can't see figures similar to Hubei.
Not least because their draconian quarantine rules simply wouldn't be an option here.

North York Moors weather 
Quantum
17 February 2020 17:36:14


 


 


 


As has been pointed out, you also concluded your post with the hysterical "so pandemic here we come!"


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


A pandemic is considered to be at least 'conceivable' and at most 'likely'. Stop calling everything an overreaction. The reason this sort of thing is worrying is not because most of the time these things just fizzle out but because every century or so they cause devastation.


For a culture that has become so obsessed with calling everything a 'crisis', we sure are blind to a potential crisis in waiting.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Roger Parsons
17 February 2020 17:45:19


This is a good one.
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
Chrome will translate it.
Or here
I see no particular reason to think the UK can't see figures similar to Hubei.
Not least because their draconian quarantine rules simply wouldn't be an option here.


Originally Posted by: four 


My browser could not cope with the first link, but the 2nd [JHU] was interesting to see and well worth a look, 4.


Thanks.


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Ally Pally Snowman
17 February 2020 17:49:27

Some numbers from today.


 


Diamond Princess 99 new cases population 3700


China excluding Hubei province 115 new cases population 1.5 billion.


I think China might be telling porkies. Truly unbelievable numbers.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 February 2020 18:01:22


Some numbers from today.


 


Diamond Princess 99 new cases population 3700


China excluding Hubei province 115 new cases population 1.5 billion.


I think China might be telling porkies. Truly unbelievable numbers.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Diamond Princess offers the ideal incubation and transmission conditions?

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
xioni2
17 February 2020 18:04:03


Some numbers from today.


 Diamond Princess 99 new cases population 3700


China excluding Hubei province 115 new cases population 1.5 billion.


I think China might be telling porkies. Truly unbelievable numbers.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Perhaps, but let's see some more numbers: several days with no new cases in the UK and 8 out 9 infected patients discharged and they never required proper medical treatment. UK population ~67 million, perhaps the UK is telling porkies too?

speckledjim
17 February 2020 18:33:11
From the WHO re why it is not yet a pandemic

“The real issue here is whether we’re seeing efficient community transmission outside of China. And at the present time, we’re not observing that. And as such, we’re not in a position to have that discussion. What we’re seeing is, again, as we’ve said previously, the majority of cases outside China have a direct link still back to China. And of that transmission that’s occurred in countries outside China, the majority of that transmission can be traced through existing transmission chains. So therefore I think we have to be very, very careful not to drive fear in the world right now, and be very cautious in using the words you have used. We’ve said that the risk is very high in China, it’s high regionally and it’s high around the world. That is not, ‘the risk is high of a pandemic.’ The risk is high that the disease may spread further, and I think at face value, that is true."
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
17 February 2020 18:36:45

In what conceivable way is a modern Chinese city like Wuhan different to Europe?
Especially if it seems to be not particularly worrying if developing cases can repeatedly fly in unchecked.

North York Moors weather 
Ally Pally Snowman
17 February 2020 18:36:59


 


Perhaps, but let's see some more numbers: several days with no new cases in the UK and 8 out 9 infected patients discharged and they never required proper medical treatment. UK population ~67 million, perhaps the UK is telling porkies too?


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


Not really comparable when the Chinese provinces outside Hubei already have 12000 + confirmed cases. But if you want to believe the Chinese Communist Party be my guest.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
17 February 2020 18:42:41


 


Come off it Gandalf, that is absurd.


All I did was put something in plural, instead of singular.


That is hardly "overreacting"


I think my point is a cogent one - if containment of the spread of the virus is the paramount responsibility and concern of the WHO, it should have suspended all cruises in the Far East at the outset. The conditions on the Diamond Princess make that self evident.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Maybe, but after your absurd characterisation of the situation in Singapore and your misplaced and unwarranted mocking of my position I am not giving you any slack whatsoever.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
17 February 2020 18:44:20


 


 


Not really comparable when the Chinese provinces outside Hubei already have 12000 + confirmed cases. But if you want to believe the Chinese Communist Party be my guest.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Why would you just assume that the numbers provided by the Chinese authorities must be wrong?  That's just lazy conspiracy nonsense.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
17 February 2020 18:46:05


 


Diamond Princess offers the ideal incubation and transmission conditions?


Originally Posted by: DEW 


No, surely not - baseless conspiracy theories are the required approach here, surely?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
17 February 2020 18:49:00


 


A not unreasonable piece of speculation, if it turns out that a good proportion of those on the Westerdam had become infected and returned to their home countries. The Diamond Princess started with a single infected passenger. We shall see.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Come off it, Richard.  It was and is a completely unreasonable piece of speculation with virtually no merit.


You keep doing this.  If you want to be overly dramatic then do it in the Brexit thread, except you won't because your blinkers won't let you acknowledge the likely car crash.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
17 February 2020 18:49:36


 


Maybe, but after your absurd characterisation of the situation in Singapore and your misplaced and unwarranted mocking of my position I am not giving you any slack whatsoever.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


You wrongly denied there were any cases in Singapore that were not directly linked to China when about 1/3 fitted that criteria. It's probably even higher now.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
17 February 2020 18:51:53


 


Come off it, Richard.  It was and is a completely unreasonable piece of speculation with virtually no merit.


You keep doing this.  If you want to be overly dramatic then do it in the Brexit thread, except you won't because your blinkers won't let you acknowledge the likely car crash.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Viral infections (relatively easy to model): Potential threat - Blaze attitude from you.


Climate change (moderately hard to model): Potential threat - takes it seriously


Economic consequences of Brexit (basically impossible to model): Potential threat - Blind appopletic panic


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
17 February 2020 18:52:18




This is a good one.
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
Chrome will translate it.
Or here
I see no particular reason to think the UK can't see figures similar to Hubei.
Not least because their draconian quarantine rules simply wouldn't be an option here.


Originally Posted by: four 


You seem to want to overlook the fact that the problem in China is largely because the authorities did nothing (well, apart from suppressing attempts to flag the problem) for the first month or so.  That alone is why the situation outside China is significantly different.


If you had an outbreak of a disease on your farm and ignored it for a month or more that would not be a benchmark for how other farms would be affected once alerted to the problem.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
17 February 2020 18:53:50


 


Viral infections (relatively easy to model): Potential threat - Blaze attitude from you.


Climate change (moderately hard to model): Potential threat - takes it seriously


Economic consequences of Brexit (basically impossible to model): Potential threat - Blind appopletic panic


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Are you still in your bunker?


This is typical misrepresentation and absurdity - something you seem to have as a specialty.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
17 February 2020 18:55:04


 


You seem to want to overlook the fact that the problem in China is largely because the authorities did nothing (well, apart from suppressing attempts to flag the problem) for the first month or so.  That alone is why the situation outside China is significantly different.


If you had an outbreak of a disease on your farm and ignored it for a month or more that would not be a benchmark for how other farms would be affected once alerted to the problem.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Nothing to worry about then. It's not like there are any other countries that might do nothing. It's not like North korea is still denying an epidemic exists, it's not like half of Africa can't even test for COVID 2019, It's not like the overwhelming majority of very large urban centres on the planet are in 3rd world countries with a capability or will to deal with this inferior to China.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
17 February 2020 18:57:53


 


Are you still in your bunker?


This is typical misrepresentation and absurdity - something you seem to have as a specialty.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Your characturization of my current situation as a 'bunker' is misrepresentation and absurdity.


Your projection is LSD enhanced.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
17 February 2020 18:58:55


 


You wrongly denied there were any cases in Singapore that were not directly linked to China when about 1/3 fitted that criteria. It's probably even higher now.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I got TWO cases wrong out of around 30-40.


Do try discussing this nicely.  If you can't then how about unplugging the keyboard and do us all a favour.


 


You have made one absurd prediction after another through this entire thread.   You ought to be hiding from embarrassment rather than trying to score petty points - and failing.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
17 February 2020 19:00:05


 


Why would you just assume that the numbers provided by the Chinese authorities must be wrong?  That's just lazy conspiracy nonsense.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


It's hardly a crazy conspiracy theory to suggest the Chinese Communists might be capable of fudging the numbers in their favour. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
17 February 2020 19:00:17


 


I got TWO cases wrong out of around 30-40.


Do try discussing this nicely.  If you can't then how about unplugging the keyboard and do us all a favour.


 


You have made one absurd prediction after another through this entire thread.   You ought to be hiding from embarrassment rather than trying to score petty points - and failing.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


No it wasn't two. I listed four cases at the time of that post, none of which had direct links to China. But those were only the most recent cases. Literally 1/3 cases at that time were not directly linked to China.


That's not a trivial inaccuracy, since it was a cornerstone of your entire argument that Singapore did not have local transmission.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
17 February 2020 19:01:26


 


Your characturization of my current situation as a 'bunker' is misrepresentation and absurdity.


Your projection is LSD enhanced.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


If you only have insults to offer just go back to your playpen.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
17 February 2020 19:03:15


 


 


It's hardly a crazy conspiracy theory to suggest the Chinese Communists might be capable of fudging the numbers in their favour. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


And not all conspiracy theories are wrong. 'Conspiracy theory' just means unfalsifable at the time they are proposed. At the time China hushing up COVID was a conspiracy theory, it's not a conspiracy theory now though as we now have evidence that China literally conspired to hush the whole thing up.


Anyway you don't need conspiracy theories, all you need is the record of how China handled this crisis in the first month which Gandalf freely admits.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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