North Korea still has no confirmed cases according to its Health minister . Well done Kim Jong-un. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Of which almost everyone appears guilty.

But the key point remains entirely valid: extrapolating based on cherry-picked data built on a lack of real understanding leads to absurd predictions and comments.

"it's out of control in Singapore" - demonstrably wrong when the comment was made and clearly wrong now.

"A global pandemic is inevitable" - so far not

"China is underreporting the numbers" - absolutely no evidence

Plus ridiculously pessimistic guesses on the mortality rate.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-china-diamond-princess-cruise/

"The British man David Abel, 74, from Oxfordshire, who has been trapped on the Diamond Princess cruise ship with his wife, Sally, has revealed that they have both tested positive for coronavirus. 

Mr Abel has previously criticised the Government for not doing more to help Britons trapped on the quarantined ship off the coast of Japan. 

The Government is "working to organise" a flight to repatriate British nationals on board, the FCO has said. Other countries have already repatriated citizens. 

"Given the conditions on board, we are working to organise a flight back to the UK for British nationals on the Diamond Princess as soon as possible," a statement from the department said."

-------------------------------

Diamond Princess has proved that cruise ships are the best possible environment for spreading the virus.

I repeat - it was madness for the WHO not to have requested that all cruises in the region should have been suspended at an early stage to help contain the virus.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Which you are guilty of more than anyone else. Notice you ignore all the posts I've made which haven't been pesimisstic which there have been many. Wrg to singapore you have failed to concede you were wrong when you said there was no local transmission at a time when literally 1/3 cases were due to local transmission. Regarding the pandemic, the view that a global pandemic is somwhere in between possible and probable is completely in alignment with the views of most experts on this matter. And China is underreporting the numbers, not necessarily deliberately for the most part, but estimates are that China is missing the majority of cases while even in Europe we could be missing more than half.

Wind your neck in and say something productive for once.

And for the umpteenth time on the mortality rate. Naive CFRs are not mortality rates. This is basic stuff.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

So does any cruise ship, which is the basic point I have been making all along. Unbelievable that cruises in the region have not been suspended even now (they should have been suspended on WHO recommendation weeks ago).

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Why is it you say cruises should have been stopped?  I was on a cruise around the Far East and we had no problems at all.

Originally Posted by: Caz 

You were fortunate. The Diamond Princess shows what happens if an infected person is on board.

This article gives an insight:

https://fortune.com/2020/02/10/cruise-ship-coronavirus-spreads/

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

You were fortunate. The Diamond Princess shows what happens if an infected person is on board.

This article gives an insight:

https://fortune.com/2020/02/10/cruise-ship-coronavirus-spreads/

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

That’s a good article but it doesn’t answer my question.  You said cruises should be stopped, but why? 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

That’s a good article but it doesn’t answer my question.  You said cruises should be stopped, but why?  

That article shows how seriously cruise companies take hygiene and the steps they take to prevent viral outbreaks or spread and the cleanliness on board and the high standard of hygiene was certainly evident in my experience.  The article also highlights how easy it is to isolate cases and prevent spread outside the ship.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Surely it also shows is that the quarantine measures were either ineffective or not followed. Or that the authorities should have removed the infected person from the vessel.

Given documented cases of viral outbreaks (eg the virus causing vomiting) on cruise ships we know that such infections can spread rapidly.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

The original spreader was not on board when he was diagnosed - he had already left the vessel:

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-photos-inside-diamond-princess-cruise-with-135-sick-2020-2?r=US&IR=T#the-diamond-princess-has-become-a-floating-home-to-2666-guests-and-1045-crew-members-in-the-port-of-yokohama-japan-1

"The cruise line suspects the contagion started sometime after January 20, when a man from Hong Kong boarded the ship in Japan.

The man stayed on board for five days, then disembarked in his hometown. He was diagnosed with the coronavirus on February 1, alerting health officials to a potential outbreak on the Diamond Princess.

..."

So a man boards the Diamond Princess on 20th January and left on 25th January in Hong Kong - during that time, he clearly passed the infection on, even though he was asymptomatic at the time. On 1st Feb. he was diagnosed with the infection and the authorities and the Diamond Princess were alerted, but it was too late - the infection was already spreading on board.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

The original spreader was not on board when he was diagnosed - he had already left the vessel:

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-photos-inside-diamond-princess-cruise-with-135-sick-2020-2?r=US&IR=T#the-diamond-princess-has-become-a-floating-home-to-2666-guests-and-1045-crew-members-in-the-port-of-yokohama-japan-1

"The cruise line suspects the contagion started sometime after January 20, when a man from Hong Kong boarded the ship in Japan.

The man stayed on board for five days, then disembarked in his hometown. He was diagnosed with the coronavirus on February 1, alerting health officials to a potential outbreak on the Diamond Princess.

..."

So a man boards the Diamond Princess on 20th January and left on 25th January in Hong Kong - during that time, he clearly passed the infection on, even though he was asymptomatic at the time. On 1st Feb. he was diagnosed with the infection and the authorities and the Diamond Princess were alerted, but it was too late - the infection was already spreading on board.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

The original spreader could have left a trail of infection before and after he was on the ship, which makes it impossible to trace everyone he came into contact with.  He could have infected hundreds more who will never show symptoms and may never know, therefore they’ll never be tested and won’t be counted.  There will be many people walking around unaware and possibly spreading it further.

On board a ship, it’s pretty obvious how many people he’s come into contact with and all can be tested and treated early to prevent serious symptoms and death.  All may not show symptoms and would not otherwise have been tested but they will all be counted.  I’d say that makes it easier to contain and safer but it probably skews numbers.  It also makes big news when so many people in one place are involved.  

It would be just as easy to spread the virus in a hotel, the difference being, people will come and go oblivious, spreading it further afield.  It would be difficult to trace their movements and to test everyone they’d come into contact with.  I still don’t see any logical reason to stop cruises. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

All true, Caz!

What is more, whatever we do next there may be unforeseen outcomes, and yet more questions!

Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

The quarantine for the Diamond princess is going to end in a few days.

People will just be allowed to leave and travel freely if they haven't tested positive.

This could be a disaster. Thousands of potentially infected people spreading this all over the world.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Why shouldn’t people be able to travel freely if they haven’t tested positive?  You might as well suggest a stop to freedom of movement for everyone.  What would be the point in living with no human contact?   We can’t just lock and shutter our homes every time there’s an outbreak of something.

You’d be right to question whether 14 days quarantine is enough.  I don’t think enough is know about the virus to be able to set a time limit but a line has to be drawn somewhere. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

The quarantine for the Diamond princess is going to end in a few days.

People will just be allowed to leave and travel freely if they haven't tested positive.

This could be a disaster. Thousands of potentially infected people spreading this all over the world.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

re-post from Daily Thread... relevant here

A "new" disease can wreak havoc in a human population. It was not until I worked in the S Pacific I learned what measles had done to the islanders. Sobering thought that this happened within the lifetime of our house! Here's an interesting bit of background, relevant to the Covid-19 story. "...extreme mortality during first-contact epidemics is a function of epidemiological isolation, not a lack of previous selection."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5197612/

Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Very interesting Roger.  Your text in bold does add weight to what I was saying about the isolation of those on the quarantined ship, although I believe the mortality rate there is zero at this point in time. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

In response to Caz on the cruise ship issue  - the problem is that the virus has a large reservoir of people in a close environment with aircon and thus spreads rapidly. I have been reading about the longevity of the virus outside the body and COVID-19 is a humdinger - it can survive for days on a handrail, a tap, a work surface - again ensuring a very easy transfer mechanism to new hosts. Compare that to HIV/AIDS - when AIDS first hit the news, people were concerned that they could contract it from toilet seats - fortunately however, the AIDS virus becomes inactive very rapidly once outside the host, so cannot be transmitted via that means.

I repeat that the WHO should have advised the suspension of all cruises in the region at the outset. The Diamond Princess is the biggest single cluster of infected people outside of China itself.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum