I'm getting my knowledged from the literature. Not from Youtube or random internet sites.

 

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Corona virus is finally confirmed to be able to do aerosol infection (droplets through air).

And it can survive up to 5 days on surfaces depending on sun exposure - this is why the WHO should have suspended all cruises in the region at the outset of the epidemic.

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Resolved CFR outside mainland China and Iran (I don't trust anything from them) is 4.2%, which is likely to be a better estimate of the true mortality rate than the naive CFR of <1%.

But how many cases are mild/asymptomatic. The mortality could be lower, but that would require the disease to be more infectious and, in turn, increase the risk of a pandemic.

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We should stop all direct and indirect flights from Iran and North korea immediately (since economic impact will be negligable we can do this), NK probably is already self isolated anyway.

Also we should have travel restrictions on Indonesia, South Korea and Japan in addition to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and China.

 

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Only a couple of days ago it was decreed that officials were to ensure that new cases in China must rapidly cease - so they probably will. Officially.
Those still trying to tell us it's only like mild flu in most cases need to explain various major cities in China now on total lockdown.

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You didn't describe the above as worst case scenario, you kept inferring that you were confident that the mortality rate would be at least 10%. When I asked for your reasoning, you said 'dodgy chinese data and because the SARS mortality rate was underestimated early on'. I kept saying to you that we simply don't know this and it's too early to say stuff like that. 

Your own reaction was also comical '(stop all social activity and turn up the thermostat to 27C' and that was in late January!). It's fine to admit that you over-reacted, but obviously you inadvertently were trying to alarm other people here too.

 

LOL.

Last night I went to Boots and bought a £10 digital thermometer. Just for peace of mind.

No symptoms whatsoever so far but want to be doubly sure, and I think I owe it to my friends and colleagues.

The vast majority of infected individuals would present with a fever so it's a fairly good indicator. 

 

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At the time there were pre lit estimates much higher than 10%, I merely wrote what was being reported. Since then we have learned the disease is less deadly but it's also alot more infectious. When I first floated that figure there was only limited evidence to suggest it could even be transmitted without close contact. Now we know it transmits through droplets and possibly aerosols. 

And it is too early to say it was an overreaction. The naive severe/case rate is still around 20% which is really really bad if it ever turns into an epidemic here. And if it does turn into an epidemic it will be more easily able to infect a large minority of the population because it is more infectious.

 

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Also why do you only quote the pesimisstic stuff? I've also posted alot of stuff on the other side, the idea is to try and represent both a best and worst case scenario that is backed up by evidence.

 

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One is supposed to learn from their mistakes, but then I remember the brexit stuff (the NI border infrastructure, the A50 extensions etc.), so there is probably a pattern somewhere.

85 cases in Europe, USA, Canada and Australia and only one death which was an elderly Chinese woman in France.

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The problem is with how things are said, or repeated, and it’s exactly the kind of thing that spreads panic.  Taking a report and adding to it - Chinese whispers!  Granted, at that time the media were doing their usual best to sensationalise and spread their pessimism, rather than reporting facts.  

So it would help if you quote your source and state that you’re repeating what’s been reported, rather than stating it’s going to happen.  Then others can judge for themselves whether it’s factual and reliable information and whether or not to panic.

If we think the NHS would struggle to deal with a major outbreak of this virus, imagine the strain of having to test thousands of people who are needlessly panicking about it.  Let’s try sticking to facts. 

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It's still early days, but so far there has probably been more harm in this country by worrying about the virus than by the virus itself. Negative impacts are both economic, but also individual health/stress related, re-allocation of resources etc.

I am not arguing that the state shouldn't prepare, but worrying too much about it and overthinking it is seriously counter-productive for many people.

  Spot on!  I’ve said exactly the same in earlier posts and being stressed makes us more vulnerable to disease.  

Maybe that’s why they’ve dealt with it so well in places like Singapore because I can honestly say, when I was there things seemed quite normal.  It was pretty much the same in all the Asian countries we visited and when we got back to the UK I genuinely couldn’t understand what all the panic was about. 

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I never said it was going to happen. In fact at the time I said it probably wouldn't (re a Pandemic).

This is the problem, people are selectively cherry picking what I say, picking the most pesimisstic posts and ignoring all the others.

The intention was never to spread alarm, but complacency is just as damaging if not more so.

 

 

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Of those 85 cases only 33 are resolved.

 

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Where’s your source for that figure as I’ve been trawling the web looking for it?

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I've just added together all the cases with a resolution.

3 recoveries in the USA

7 recoveries in France + 1 death

8 recoveries in the UK

2 recoveries in Canada

2 recoveries in Spain

1 recovery in Belgium

1 recovery in Finland

9 recoveries in Germany

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Yes 27 seriously ill from the cruise ship a catastrophic failure it has to be said.  11 dead now and 1200 ish infected outside mainland China about 1%. A 1% death rate seems a decent guess at the moment which is far to high for governments to sit back and do nothing. So if we do get a significant outbreak here which at the moment seems likely expect a large amount of disruption.  Mass school closures and public events cancelled etc.

 

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I’d expect pandemics to be more likely in this age of world travel but that doesn’t mean it’s more deadly.

I’m sure people do read all your posts but have no reason to complain about the good news.  I’ve no doubt your intention was not to alarm people deliberately but some certainly picked up on your panic.  Overreaction can be just as harmful as complacency, as can crying wolf once too often.

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But this is the thing when it comes to viral outbreaks. It's the low risk, high impact scenario.

There was 'alarmism' over H1N1 and others, but it wasn't unwarranted at the time. Those all could have become very nasty indeed, thankfully they didn't. It isn't possible to know this with hindsight. With regards to covid-19, a pandemic now sits somewhere between possible and probable and I don't think it's alarmist to say that.

 

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My point is Q, alarmism doesn’t help, it hinders.  Just because it happened before doesn’t mean you have to repeat it.  We should learn from mistakes. 

What is your definition of ‘pandemic’?  Mine is that an epidemic reaches further across the globe and is therefore quite infectious, but we already know this virus is infectious.  It doesn’t mean its symptoms are worse, or that morbidity rates are higher.  So, suggesting it will be a pandemic isn’t really being alarmist.  I think we all agree it’s fairly widespread. What we don’t all agree on is whether it’s worth making ourselves ill with stress. 

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As I understand it, it is declared to be a pandemic if it becomes widespread across multiple countries and, I assume, is not under control.

There has been far too much alarmist talk in here and elsewhere.  There's a huge difference between a balanced assessment of the risks associated with Covid-19 and emphasising worst case scenarios, particularly when there's still a lot of uncertainty around the infection rates and severity.

As it stands now, outside of China seasonal flu carries a higher threat.  It would be good it the overly dramatic comments and unfounded conspiracy theories were not shared.

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Seasonal flu does not carry a higher threat, you don't get a global emergency for seasonal flu.

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As I see it, I'm all for alarmism if it makes people stop and think about their hygiene standards and how they interact with others.

From what I've seen so far, people can't be that alarmed as I've seen people hacking their guts up without covering their mouths and people spitting on the street. Every time I see things like this, I can't help thinking we're screwed if something really nasty does come our way.

I genuinely believe with some people there is a case of 'well I've got it, you can have it too'.

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