My father in law is Italian.  He's fairly calm but I can confirm at least in the south of Italy the driving is "assertive".  

Originally Posted by: howham 

So we're clear, I really wasn't having a go at you, Darren. And with hindsight, 'cold' was probably too stark a word to use.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

That is incorrect.  You are assuming that 'serious' equates to requiring intensive care.  Additionally the current figure is 18% not 20%.

The stats I saw from China suggested 5% became critically ill, which I think better equates to requiring intensive care. Also bear in mind that the stats are dominated by China and that a lot of progress has been made in the last two months to understand which treatments work and to identify people earlier.  Obviously the sooner treatments are started the better the outcomes.

Some helpful stats to get this into perspective:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

The higher rates in those 70 and above almost certainly links to the higher risk with pre-existing conditions:

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE
Cardiovascular disease        10.5%
Diabetes                            7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease  6.3%
Hypertension                      6.0%
Cancer                               5.6%
no pre-existing conditions    0.9%

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Simple. Aberdeen has never been quarantined. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 If you wake up without any aches and pains you died in the night.

Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Italy is a composite county "cobbled together" by  Garibaldi, so I'm supposing there are many  Italian "types".  

Having worked for a time  in Rome, I have to say, the driving style would certainly be described as "flamboyant"  on the other hand Italians I have worked with all seemed  pretty level headed and sensible.

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

Back in the 1990s we rented a cottage in Umbria - we had a hire car and I remember the drive back to Rome afterwards - going down a mountain road in the Apennines a car started to overtake us and the car in front of us and then another car started to pass the car passing us and then a truck was coming the other way - phew - they all just managed to squeeze in in time with much blaring of horns and gesticulation. Then in Rome itself - nightmare place to drive - the only comparison I can draw is driving the dodgems at the fair ground - we saw multiple dings and dents, but the drivers didn't seem to care :-)

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Not looking too good for me, Gandalf - what about you?

On age risk alone I score 8.0% - take account of 2-3 pre-existing conditions on your list - and I'm Doomed. Doomed!

The saying goes: If you wake up without any aches and pains you died in the night.

I've not heard anything from our Italian relations yet.

Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

(snip)

That's some excellent info - it's the first time I've seen the risks quantified like that.

It looks like, at present, it's around an order of magnitude more deadly than regular flu, at least in the under-50 crowd.

For the oldest age groups it's much as you'd expect given that there's no vaccine available: it's a reminder of what flu can do to those who are vulnerable.

It's also interesting reading the past page or so of replies! As you get older the inevitability of death becomes more tangible, so I've been told, along with an understanding that you will eventually die of something. In my family's case it was mostly lung cancer, heart attacks and strokes - all quick killers and all (IMO) infinitely preferable to the lingering death sentence of dementia. This flu would, I suspect, be added to that quick killer list for older people.

Incidentally to Saint, I suspect part of the reason I post the way I do is because I'm an only child who has no elderly relatives: my parents and grandparents are long since gone, even though I'm only 40. I also have no children, no partner and no desire for either: I'm happy on my own.  It gives a different perspective from most, who'll have parents, spouses, siblings, children etc to worry about.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I'm sure Quantum will be along soon to lecture you about why your sums are wrong.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Spent a day each in Genoa, Naples/Pompeii and Messina (Sicily) last year and found the people great and the drivers no less uncivilised than over here.

But hey, we just love a stereotype 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

LOL.

I am in the 3.6% group still, if not be very much.  I go to the gym 2-3 times per week so hopefully reasonably fit.  Last time I was tested I was told my 'body age' was below my actual age - maybe I could sneak into the 1.3% bracket...?

As for the saying, an older friend once said that when he wakes up he checks that he's not surrounded by a wooden box!

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

He's gone and divided the number of active serious/critical by the number of cases.

So anyone who died or recovered from being serious or critical was not included.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Back on topic - the breaking news is that at least 210 have died of COVID-19 in Iran.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

My figure is far more accurate than your made up one. 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

You literally divided the number of active serious/critical by the number of cumulative cases.

That figure is meaningless.

It assumes 100% of people in serious/critical condition are in serious/critical condition now and 0% of them have died or recovered.

And to be honest 3.6% of people in indefinite serious/critical condition would crash the healthservice even faster!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

(snip)

That's some excellent info - it's the first time I've seen the risks quantified like that.

It looks like, at present, it's around an order of magnitude more deadly than regular flu, at least in the under-50 crowd.

For the oldest age groups it's much as you'd expect given that there's no vaccine available: it's a reminder of what flu can do to those who are vulnerable.

It's also interesting reading the past page or so of replies! As you get older the inevitability of death becomes more tangible, so I've been told, along with an understanding that you will eventually die of something. In my family's case it was mostly lung cancer, heart attacks and strokes - all quick killers and all (IMO) infinitely preferable to the lingering death sentence of dementia. This flu would, I suspect, be added to that quick killer list for older people.

Incidentally to Saint, I suspect part of the reason I post the way I do is because I'm an only child who has no elderly relatives: my parents and grandparents are long since gone, even though I'm only 40. I also have no children, no partner and no desire for either: I'm happy on my own.  It gives a different perspective from most, who'll have parents, spouses, siblings, children etc to worry about.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I should have given the source - although it's the same one I used a day or two ago.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Lots of very good data there.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

What's interesting is that Gov.uk are recommending isolation for people travelling from certain areas in Italy, China and S Korea; but from anywhere in Iran- the whole country is a category 1 zone.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

It's an excellent source of info for anyone who wants to understand the true picture and not be taken in by some of the hysterics we have witnessed on here

Originally Posted by: speckledjim