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xioni2
28 February 2020 16:48:09


 My father in law is Italian.  He's fairly calm but I can confirm at least in the south of Italy the driving is "assertive".  


Originally Posted by: howham 


This is such a classic 


Retron
28 February 2020 16:50:02


So we're clear, I really wasn't having a go at you, Darren. And with hindsight, 'cold' was probably too stark a word to use.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Heh, I didn't think you were - I thought it was worthwhile just to clarify why I post the frank way I do sometimes. I'm not an emotionless robot, despite appearances (you should have seen me when Torak the wolf escaped a couple of years ago, for example ), but I do have pretty unique circumstances for someone my age. I don't know any other 30- or 40-somethings who've lost both their parents, for example.


As an aside, it's always good to see other people's points of view, even those on the opposite end of the scale from mine (such as Q's); one of the joys of this forum is that we all seem to get along despite sometimes seeing things differently.


I suspect this thread (like the EU one) will run and run over the coming few months.


Leysdown, north Kent
Roger Parsons
28 February 2020 16:59:47


 


That is incorrect.  You are assuming that 'serious' equates to requiring intensive care.  Additionally the current figure is 18% not 20%.


The stats I saw from China suggested 5% became critically ill, which I think better equates to requiring intensive care. Also bear in mind that the stats are dominated by China and that a lot of progress has been made in the last two months to understand which treatments work and to identify people earlier.  Obviously the sooner treatments are started the better the outcomes.


 


Some helpful stats to get this into perspective:


COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:


*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.















































AGE
DEATH RATE*

80+ years old

14.8%

70-79 years old

8.0%

60-69 years old

3.6%

50-59 years old

1.3%

40-49 years old

0.4%

30-39 years old

0.2%

20-29 years old

0.2%

10-19 years old

0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

The higher rates in those 70 and above almost certainly links to the higher risk with pre-existing conditions:


PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE
Cardiovascular disease        10.5%
Diabetes                            7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease  6.3%
Hypertension                      6.0%
Cancer                               5.6%
no pre-existing conditions    0.9%


 



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Not looking too good for me, Gandalf - what about you?


On age risk alone I score 8.0% - take account of 2-3 pre-existing conditions on your list - and I'm Doomed. Doomed!


The saying goes: If you wake up without any aches and pains you died in the night.


I've not heard anything from our Italian relations yet.


Roger


 


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
howham
28 February 2020 17:01:05


 


Simple. Aberdeen has never been quarantined. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I think it has been quarantined from snow for the last two years!

Northern Sky
28 February 2020 17:06:46


 


 If you wake up without any aches and pains you died in the night.


 


Roger


 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 



 


I'm a bit miffed that my chances of fatality have risen by 0.9% since last year. People tell me 50 is the new 40 but now I can assure them it's not.

Maunder Minimum
28 February 2020 17:12:39


Italy is a composite county "cobbled together" by  Garibaldi, so I'm supposing there are many  Italian "types".  


Having worked for a time  in Rome, I have to say, the driving style would certainly be described as "flamboyant"  on the other hand Italians I have worked with all seemed  pretty level headed and sensible.


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 



Back in the 1990s we rented a cottage in Umbria - we had a hire car and I remember the drive back to Rome afterwards - going down a mountain road in the Apennines a car started to overtake us and the car in front of us and then another car started to pass the car passing us and then a truck was coming the other way - phew - they all just managed to squeeze in in time with much blaring of horns and gesticulation. Then in Rome itself - nightmare place to drive - the only comparison I can draw is driving the dodgems at the fair ground - we saw multiple dings and dents, but the drivers didn't seem to care :-)


 


New world order coming.
howham
28 February 2020 17:18:03
My favourite Italian driving moment was four of us squeezed into a Fiat Punto while our Italian driver played Pavarotti (on cassette) in the very south of the country. The white lines on the road were merely guidance (if he noticed them at all as he spent half the journey facing us in the back seat!). No seat belt either, obviously...
Saint Snow
28 February 2020 17:18:29


 



Back in the 1990s we rented a cottage in Umbria - we had a hire car and I remember the drive back to Rome afterwards - going down a mountain road in the Apennines a car started to overtake us and the car in front of us and then another car started to pass the car passing us and then a truck was coming the other way - phew - they all just managed to squeeze in in time with much blaring of horns and gesticulation. Then in Rome itself - nightmare place to drive - the only comparison I can draw is driving the dodgems at the fair ground - we saw multiple dings and dents, but the drivers didn't seem to care :-)


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


Spent a day each in Genoa, Naples/Pompeii and Messina (Sicily) last year and found the people great and the drivers no less uncivilised than over here.


But hey, we just love a stereotype 


 


 


Edit - scariest place I've driven is to Ronda in Spain from near Marbella. Winding mountain roads (although comfortably wide) and I was driving at a slightly testing speed, about 70-80kmh generally. There's a constant flow of lorries coming down the road laden with quarried rock, and empty lorries going back up to reload.


I was getting overtaken by some of the empty lorries.


Often on blind bends.


A few times the lorry overtaking me would need to throw themselves back on the right side of the road to avoid a head-on, but I'd already be braking. I was knackered by the end of the journey! Luckily, by the time we were driving back the working day was over and far fewer lorries on the road.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
28 February 2020 17:19:24


 


Not looking too good for me, Gandalf - what about you?


On age risk alone I score 8.0% - take account of 2-3 pre-existing conditions on your list - and I'm Doomed. Doomed!


The saying goes: If you wake up without any aches and pains you died in the night.


I've not heard anything from our Italian relations yet.


Roger


 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


LOL.


I am in the 3.6% group still, if not be very much.  I go to the gym 2-3 times per week so hopefully reasonably fit.  Last time I was tested I was told my 'body age' was below my actual age - maybe I could sneak into the 1.3% bracket...?


As for the saying, an older friend once said that when he wakes up he checks that he's not surrounded by a wooden box!


 



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 February 2020 17:22:23


 


(snip)


That's some excellent info - it's the first time I've seen the risks quantified like that.


It looks like, at present, it's around an order of magnitude more deadly than regular flu, at least in the under-50 crowd.


For the oldest age groups it's much as you'd expect given that there's no vaccine available: it's a reminder of what flu can do to those who are vulnerable.


It's also interesting reading the past page or so of replies! As you get older the inevitability of death becomes more tangible, so I've been told, along with an understanding that you will eventually die of something. In my family's case it was mostly lung cancer, heart attacks and strokes - all quick killers and all (IMO) infinitely preferable to the lingering death sentence of dementia. This flu would, I suspect, be added to that quick killer list for older people.


Incidentally to Saint, I suspect part of the reason I post the way I do is because I'm an only child who has no elderly relatives: my parents and grandparents are long since gone, even though I'm only 40. I also have no children, no partner and no desire for either: I'm happy on my own.  It gives a different perspective from most, who'll have parents, spouses, siblings, children etc to worry about.


Originally Posted by: Retron 

I think that’s called speaking your mind.   I tell it as it is too but maybe a little more diplomatically in text.  I’m the eldest of 8, have a very large family including elderly ones, my mum died only 3 years ago and I’m only 65 ().  I’ve had three children, a lovely husband and I’d be totally miserable on my own.  


Quite a different background to you but not such a different perspective on life!  Maybe having so many people in my life helps me to get things out a bit more empathetically. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Quantum
28 February 2020 17:22:27


 


 


I'm sure Quantum will be along soon to lecture you about why your sums are wrong.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


He's gone and divided the number of active serious/critical by the number of cases.



So anyone who died or recovered from being serious or critical was not included.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
xioni2
28 February 2020 17:22:31


Spent a day each in Genoa, Naples/Pompeii and Messina (Sicily) last year and found the people great and the drivers no less uncivilised than over here.


But hey, we just love a stereotype 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It has changed a lot actually over the last 30 years.

Bugglesgate
28 February 2020 17:23:48


 


LOL.


I am in the 3.6% group still, if not be very much.  I go to the gym 2-3 times per week so hopefully reasonably fit.  Last time I was tested I was told my 'body age' was below my actual age - maybe I could sneak into the 1.3% bracket...?


As for the saying, an older friend once said that when he wakes up he checks that he's not surrounded by a wooden box!


 



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


I'm just in the 1.3% - but I can see the "rot setting in" statistically speaking from here on in.


My older neighbour says she's stopped buying unripe bananas


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Maunder Minimum
28 February 2020 17:26:40

Back on topic - the breaking news is that at least 210 have died of COVID-19 in Iran.


Now on the BBC website:


At least 210 Covid-19 patients have died in Iran, sources within the country's health care system have told BBC Persian.


This figure, as of Thursday evening, is way above the official figure of 34.


The official figure for infected people is at 388 but many have challenged official figure. Most victims are from Tehran the capital and city of Qom where the outbreak of the virus started.


New world order coming.
speckledjim
28 February 2020 17:27:16


 


He's gone and divided the number of active serious/critical by the number of cases.



So anyone who died or recovered from being serious or critical was not included.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


My figure is far more accurate than your made up one. 


 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
28 February 2020 17:28:06


Back on topic - the breaking news is that at least 210 have died of COVID-19 in Iran.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


So several thousand have it assuming that figure isn't an underestimate.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
28 February 2020 17:29:51


 


 


My figure is far more accurate than your made up one. 


 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


You literally divided the number of active serious/critical by the number of cumulative cases.


That figure is meaningless.


It assumes 100% of people in serious/critical condition are in serious/critical condition now and 0% of them have died or recovered.


 


And to be honest 3.6% of people in indefinite serious/critical condition would crash the healthservice even faster!


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
speckledjim
28 February 2020 17:32:06


 


You literally divided the number of active serious/critical by the number of cumulative cases.


That figure is meaningless.


It assumes 100% of people in serious/critical condition are in serious/critical condition now and 0% of them have died or recovered.


 


And to be honest 3.6% of people in indefinite serious/critical condition would crash the healthservice even faster!


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


No i didn't so I suggest you stop telling me what you think i did and crawl back into your bunker and hunker down for the next few months


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gandalf The White
28 February 2020 17:32:10


 


(snip)


That's some excellent info - it's the first time I've seen the risks quantified like that.


It looks like, at present, it's around an order of magnitude more deadly than regular flu, at least in the under-50 crowd.


For the oldest age groups it's much as you'd expect given that there's no vaccine available: it's a reminder of what flu can do to those who are vulnerable.


It's also interesting reading the past page or so of replies! As you get older the inevitability of death becomes more tangible, so I've been told, along with an understanding that you will eventually die of something. In my family's case it was mostly lung cancer, heart attacks and strokes - all quick killers and all (IMO) infinitely preferable to the lingering death sentence of dementia. This flu would, I suspect, be added to that quick killer list for older people.


Incidentally to Saint, I suspect part of the reason I post the way I do is because I'm an only child who has no elderly relatives: my parents and grandparents are long since gone, even though I'm only 40. I also have no children, no partner and no desire for either: I'm happy on my own.  It gives a different perspective from most, who'll have parents, spouses, siblings, children etc to worry about.


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I should have given the source - although it's the same one I used a day or two ago.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


 


Lots of very good data there.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
28 February 2020 17:33:26

And the naive fatality ratio is now about 3.6%


So somehow simbultaenously 0% and 100% of serious/critical cases resulted in deaths.


Perhaps we should swap names. And you can be Quantum since that's the only way you can simbultaenously have 0% and 100% critical/serious mortality rates at the same time.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Bertwhistle
28 February 2020 17:33:29

What's interesting is that Gov.uk are recommending isolation for people travelling from certain areas in Italy, China and S Korea; but from anywhere in Iran- the whole country is a category 1 zone.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
speckledjim
28 February 2020 17:34:09


 


I should have given the source - although it's the same one I used a day or two ago.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


 


Lots of very good data there.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


It's an excellent source of info for anyone who wants to understand the true picture and not be taken in by some of the hysterics we have witnessed on here


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
28 February 2020 17:36:08

The total number of serious/critical cases / total number of cases is 18%.


Not 3.6%.


Of course this is also a naive ratio that suffers from the same problem as the naive CFR (albeit with a lower lag) so the resolved serious/critical ratio might be higher.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
28 February 2020 17:37:55


What's interesting is that Gov.uk are recommending isolation for people travelling from certain areas in Italy, China and S Korea; but from anywhere in Iran- the whole country is a category 1 zone.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


That seems about right tbh.


Only parts of Italy/South korea have out of control local transmission wheras the entirety of Iran has it.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
28 February 2020 17:39:31


 


 


It's an excellent source of info for anyone who wants to understand the true picture and not be taken in by some of the hysterics we have witnessed on here


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


That source literally says 18%


....



2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)

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