What were the test numbers today ? 

On this site, we are all weather model followers, so we understand the difference between signal and noise.

So nothing to make of today's reduction in UK deaths, unless it is sustained.

Italy on the other hand, appears to be finally turning the corner, but at what cost? Italy won't have an economy worth the name after this for a long time.

There certainly won't be an early uptick in tourist numbers, even once Italy has the situation finally under control. Same goes for Spain and for France.

Can I ask why the testing numbers aren't consistent ?

I just thought it would be more structured and organised , I saw what Korea was doing and it looked as they meant business 

I don't think it is confusing. We have poor and limited data. Standard deviation is massive. It will be going up rapidly with a few dips and peaks on the way. Anything else is extremely unlikely. We have no right to think we are in a different place to every other Country in the world.

Quite.

There's been no time yet for the very recent UK measures (widely flouted) to have had any effect on the rate of deaths.

Italy, Spain, France still not seeing any really dramatic benefits of their measures in the death count.

There's huge uncertainty about the incubation period  (time from exposure to the development of symptoms).

The reason why lockdown hasn't worked in Italy or Spain is time lag. We will see a steady drop in cases there next week. I expect that cases there will fall to low levels by the end of April. However, one problem that I fear is that cases will hang around at a low level for some time thereafter so guards can't be dropped completely. 

I think people should know the difference between the GFS 18z operational and the ensembles by now! The same caveats apply. More runs needed.

I think the only numbers that matter are death rates.  Even then it’s hard to glean anything of real statistical value, as we don’t know what ‘underlying problems’ means.  We don’t know how many of those were at ‘end of life’ and even if other countries are using the same criteria.

An odd day. 

We visited my parents - but went round the side into the back garden and stayed about 15ft away, whilst they sat on the patio. Kept conversation light, and the dog made a big fuss of them.

Then went on to a quiet canal path for a long walk with the dog. It was nearly 5pm so even quieter than I presume it had been eearlier. Encountered two groups walking towards us, both times gave each other wide berths with a smile and a 'hello'.

Trying to milk as much normality out this situation as I can, because I hate all the disruption (even if I agree it's necessary)

The symptoms will probably set in later. He’s got the virus not the antibodies.

My alcohol intake has substantially increased these past 2-3 weeks 

Not been drunk at all, but having 2 and maybe 3 drinks instead of 1.

The opposite. I normally have two beers after work but haven't now had a drink for 10 days. I never drink at home because I don't really drink anything except real ale. Bottled beer doesn't do it for me and I don't drink wine or spirits except very rarely on big social occasions.

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Status of COVID-19

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

Quote

 The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.

Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios. 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

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I was thinking of this post during my walk today. We passed by a hotel in the countryside today, the car park was overflowing and it was obvious that the restaurant was full (it's not even a very good restaurant!). If just 1-2 members of staff are carriers, then they would probably have infected several of the customers today and a week or so later a nice cluster would develop in the area and some people (not necessarily customers!) could then die. This is all hypothetical of course, but why take such a risk?

Both the govt and some people still don't get it.

The only parent we have between us now is hubby’s step mum.  The family have taken her essential shopping items that she said she needed and to avoid contact, they’ve hung bags on her door handle and talked to her through the window.  Bro in law mowed her lawns yesterday but didn’t go in the house and today hubby left her a Mother’s Day card and plant plus outside and did the window communication thing.  

Tonight, she phoned to thank me for sending the paracetamol, milk and Mother’s Day gifts.  I asked if there was anything else she needed and she said, ‘oh no thanks, I’ll manage until I go shopping on Wednesday’!    Jeez!  I know this is hard but it’s much harder than hard!  

Usual thing. Someone's mate owns a hotel chain.

Come to think of it, Trump owns a few doesn't he?

Daily breakdown of the data from PHE

UK data 

• Daily confirmed Cases - 665 (-370)


• Patients Recovered - 135 (+42) - New daily high for recovered patients 


• Total UK deaths - 281 (+48)

English data

Top 10 Local Authorities with the highest confirmed cases

1. Hampshire: 156


2. Southwark: 139


3. Brent: 128


4. Lambeth: 127


5. Westminster: 117


6. Wandsworth: 110


7. Harrow: 103


8. Ealing: 97


9. Hertfordshire: 92


10. Birmingham: 91

Local Authorities with the fewest confirmed cases

• Middlesbrough: 1


• Blackburn with Darwen: 1


• Kingston upon Hull, City of: 1


• North East Lincolnshire: 1


• Telford and Wrekin: 1


• Hartlepool: 2


• North Lincolnshire: 2


• Stoke-on-Trent: 2


• Peterborough: 2


• Isle of Wight: 2

Regional data

• London - 2,189 (+224)


• Midlands - 624 (+133)


• South East - 536 (+44)


• North West - 390 (+78)


• North East and Yorkshire - 368 (+70)


• East of England - 274 (+53)


• South West - 242 (+26)

All changes with yesterday. Data based up to 9am today.

I'm below average as well.I don't tend to drink much at home and have  been giving pubs a miss for a week or so now.  The only thing I'm vaguely tempted by is  the bottle of Rumbullion  I have  on the sideboard but that's in reserve for if things get really grim !