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xioni2
20 April 2020 17:49:39


So a jump back up from today is possible ? 


I'm not for one minute predicting jaw dropping numbers but back up into the 600's 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


yep.

pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
20 April 2020 17:49:50

Canadian report: coronavirus pushed off the front page by a mass shooting in Nova Scotia . Such things are thankfully still rare here.


My own impression here from over the weekend is that people are starting to go out and about a lot more, but are still observing social distancing well. Far more traffic on the roads. Is this a bit like being on a diet where you are very good for the first few weeks, then your discipline starts to fade? Terrible analogy but I wonder if the same sort of psychology applies.

--
Paul.
Gandalf The White
20 April 2020 17:55:25




Worst of worst case scenarios, the death rate is nowhere near high enough to cause such carnage especially in those of working age.


Originally Posted by: four 


That's simply not true, Four.


Let's just look at the elderly:


There are around 1.5m people over 85 and another 7.5m over 70.


Applying the current mortality rates to those figures gives a potential 750,000 deaths if everyone caught Covid-19.  Of course not everyone will catch it, hopefully.


 


So, even excluding all other age groups you have a huge potential death toll.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
20 April 2020 17:56:08

Must admit I am not all the clued up on what this so-called 'weekend effect' is. What does that mean exactly? 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Polar Low
20 April 2020 17:59:19

Yes I would say the same around here far more traffic and many more people about not sure if it’s a local thing but I had noticed this today I don’t think the sunny weather helps.


Also not sure on TV why weather men use the word  you should follow the guidelines surly the word should be must!!




Canadian report: coronavirus pushed off the front page by a mass shooting in Nova Scotia . Such things are thankfully still rare here.


My own impression here from over the weekend is that people are starting to go out and about a lot more, but are still observing social distancing well. Far more traffic on the roads. Is this a bit like being on a diet where you are very good for the first few weeks, then your discipline starts to fade? Terrible analogy but I wonder if the same sort of psychology applies.


Originally Posted by: pfw 

Chunky Pea
20 April 2020 17:59:22


 


That's simply not true, Four.


Let's just look at the elderly:


There are around 1.5m people over 85 and another 7.5m over 70.


Applying the current mortality rates to those figures gives a potential 750,000 deaths if everyone caught Covid-19.  Of course not everyone will catch it, hopefully.


 


So, even excluding all other age groups you have a huge potential death toll.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Just going by Irish stats, but the median age of death from the virus itself (81) is similar to the average age of death in more 'normal' circumstances, which also stands at 81. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gooner
20 April 2020 18:00:27

Anyone got any idea when Boris will be back in front of the cameras ?


He must have been very very poorly 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


xioni2
20 April 2020 18:02:34


Must admit I am not all the clued up on what this so-called 'weekend effect' is. What does that mean exactly? 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


The virus taking time off? 


There is reduced reporting and admin work in general during the weekends, which is reflected on the numbers of deaths reported on Sundays and Mondays (last weekend was obviously a much longer one).


 

Polar Low
20 April 2020 18:04:16

Just to confirm 10 key workers children attended school today (Capacity around 600) 10 children spread over 5 classrooms.


with 5 Teachers 6 support  staff no ppe available.


 


 

Gooner
20 April 2020 18:07:26


Just to confirm 10 key workers children attended school today (Capacity around 600) 10 children spread over 5 classrooms.


with 5 Teachers 6 support  staff no ppe available.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


How will they cope with the return of schools proper ?


1) Do you expect a full return and as I am guessing some children being kept at home ?


2) How do the Teachers feel about no ppe ? 


Must be a nightmare at the moment ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


John p
20 April 2020 18:08:31


Anyone got any idea when Boris will be back in front of the cameras ?


He must have been very very poorly 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I thought he looked surprisingly well in the video he released straight after his release from hospital. 

Camberley, Surrey
Chunky Pea
20 April 2020 18:09:07


 


The virus taking time off? 


There is reduced reporting and admin work in general during the weekends, which is reflected on the numbers of deaths reported on Sundays and Mondays (last weekend was obviously a much longer one).


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Of course 


Brighter minds would naturally have known this. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
bledur
20 April 2020 18:10:28


it was always going to happen one day with the decline of British manufacturing and unsupportive British governments in the seventies 


It has bitten us in the arse at the worst possible time.


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Quite true . There needs to be far more stuff made here in future, whether it will happen we will see but people have short memories and the love of a quick buck.

Polar Low
20 April 2020 18:12:22

At fist lockdown numbers were 21 children


SD does not work even in such small numbers teachers are very nervous about no PE but do feel that is a good human duty given the times I must say so do I rumours that when full capacity or end of lockdown masks will have to be available with compulsory use.


 




 


How will they cope with the return of schools proper ?


1) Do you expect a full return and as I am guessing some children being kept at home ?


2) How do the Teachers feel about no ppe ? 


Must be a nightmare at the moment ?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

bledur
20 April 2020 18:13:53


 


How will they cope with the return of schools proper ?


1) Do you expect a full return and as I am guessing some children being kept at home ?


2) How do the Teachers feel about no ppe ? 


Must be a nightmare at the moment ?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 Just three in our village school where our grandaughter attends. We have her some days but cannot every day. 

bledur
20 April 2020 18:17:21


 


If true, it's just more incompetence and dishonesty by our government. It reminds me of what happened with testing:


"The lack of action on testing was confirmed by Doris-Ann Williams, chief executive of the British In Vitro Diagnostics Association, which represents 110 companies that make up most of the UK’s testing sector. Amazingly, she says her organisation did not receive a meaningful approach from the government asking for help until April 1 — the night before Hancock bowed to pressure and announced a belated and ambitious target of 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month."


Yet, the govt kept saying during the last week of March that it was ramping up testing.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 Regularly hearing stories like this now and i cannot make my mind up whether it is deliberately lying or just bumbling incompetence in the chain of command 

glenogle
20 April 2020 18:29:40


Probably a load of balls but...


Delayed clearance of SARS-CoV2 in male compared to female patients: High ACE2 expression in testes suggests possible existence of gender-specific viral reservoirs


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20060566v1.full.pdf


or the tabloid version


Men’s testicles ‘could make them more vulnerable to coronavirus’


https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/19/mens-testicles-harbour-coronavirus-12578779/


 


 


Originally Posted by: RobN 


I think it might be accurate to an extent. I read somewhere that they had traced it as far as the x chromosome and the fact women have 2 was being pondered as a factor.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Saint Snow
20 April 2020 18:34:48




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Spot on.


May had her faults, but her integrity - at least in so far as she believed - is not in question. 


Bozo is a feckless, adulterous, egomaniac snob.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Polar Low
20 April 2020 18:40:01

Also what worried me this afternoon is that one of the contractor cleaners works for a caring agency during the morning caring for very old and sick people I have raised a red flag and phoned the head of school because of the very high risk transmission trail the head has accepted and agreed to pay her in full in none attendance until further notice  a result all around 👍👍


quote=Gooner;1207334]


 


How will they cope with the return of schools proper ?


1) Do you expect a full return and as I am guessing some children being kept at home ?


2) How do the Teachers feel about no ppe ? 


Must be a nightmare at the moment ?


glenogle
20 April 2020 18:41:22


 


The evidence of where the outbreak originated, i.e. a wet market in Wuhan, and the genetic characteristics of the virus, i.e. clearly traceable to identical viruses in the original host species, are very strong indicators that it was not 'created' in a laboratory.


So, whilst it may, in the strict usage of the expression, be 'completely conceivable', I take exception to your use of the word 'naive' to describe people who dismiss the idea.  I would say it is entirely rational to follow the evidence and draw a conclusion based on that evidence.


You might argue that it is immature to be incapable of understanding the probabilities of certain events or sequences of actions.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The research lab in wuhan, studies SARS and as such holds bats as part of its research inventory. What's to say there wasnt an accidental bat escape which had a mutation of sars they were studying?


I think that's the Avenue quantum is going down.  If I was being cynical, I'd also say that the original headline doesnt rule this out, as the headline infers imo that lab made equals synthetic.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Gavin D
20 April 2020 18:45:32

Regional data for new cases today in England


The 7 English regions 



  • London +297 (1.4%) 21,654

  • Midlands +457 (3.0%) 15,038

  • North West +457 (3.2%) 14,328

  • South East +315 (2.4%) 12,878

  • North East and Yorkshire +366 (2.9%) 12,642

  • East of England +256 (3.3%) 7,732

  • South West +192 (3.9%) 4,861


The 10 local areas with the highest cases



  1. Kent +94 (3.9%) 2,402

  2. Birmingham +67 (2.9%) 2,310

  3. Hampshire +37 (1.7%) 2,159

  4. Lancashire +78 (3.7%) 2,096

  5. Surrey +20 (1.0%) 1,961

  6. Essex +46 (2.4%) 1,892

  7. Hertfordshire 56 (3.0%) 1,864

  8. Sheffield +33 (2.0%) 1,631

  9. Cumbria +29 (1.9%) 1,496

  10. Staffordshire +46 (3.7%) 1,248


The 10 local areas with the lowest cases



  1. Rutland 12 - no change

  2. Isle of Wight +1 (1.5%) 68

  3. Hartlepool +5 (5.6%) 89

  4. North East Lincolnshire +1 (1.1%) 92

  5. Torbay +6 (4.7%) 129

  6. Peterborough +1 (0.7%) 137

  7. Herefordshire, County of +8 (5.4%) 149

  8. Bracknell Forest +1 (0.6%) 156

  9. North Somerset +8 (4.8%) 167

  10. Telford and Wrekin +9 (5.4%) 168

glenogle
20 April 2020 19:01:50


 


Despite the lack of lockdown legislation in place, the population has been cautious and compliant...


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective


"More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office.


And while many other countries have introduced strict laws, including hefty fines if people are caught breaching newly minted social-distancing laws, Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland -- a popular vacation destination -- dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital.


Sweden also recently pushed back against the notion that there’s little to no social distancing going on.


“We don’t have a radically different view,” Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in an interview with Radio Sweden. “The government has made a series of decisions that affect the whole society. It’s a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden.”


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Yes, I have friends in Sweden. They are on lockdown similar to us and as far as I'm aware home schooling due to closed schools.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
20 April 2020 19:14:43


 


I think it might be accurate to an extent. I read somewhere that they had traced it as far as the x chromosome and the fact women have 2 was being pondered as a factor.


Originally Posted by: glenogle 


We have probably kicked this can around already but..


Why are men more likely to get worse symptoms and die from covid-19?


https://www.newscientist.com/article/2240898-why-are-men-more-likely-to-get-worse-symptoms-and-die-from-covid-19/

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
bledur
20 April 2020 19:24:54


 


 


Spot on.


May had her faults, but her integrity - at least in so far as she believed - is not in question. 


Bozo is a feckless, adulterous, egomaniac snob.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Yet you love him all the same.


 

glenogle
20 April 2020 19:31:32


 


Exactly!


But, the economy isn't wrecked, it's suspended, mothballed, paused, hibernating. Nothing has been bombed, wrecked, torpedoed. When this has gone (if it goes...), the economy is ready to go - and with vast amounts of cheap oil and cheap solar (thanks to clear skies) about who knows....


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


That's my view I've been trying to put over to my friend who bases all his economy views on oil price.  I dont think it will be as bad as that. Yes a reset and a reduction in share values but that's been coming for ages. Just needed the trigger to justify it.  I dont foresee a prolonged depression.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
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