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Maunder Minimum
28 April 2020 11:04:20


 


Excellent post. No matter what Maunder says, the UK had the opportunity early on when it was isolating cases successfully to introduce social restrictions in the way New Zealand and South Korea did. But Johnson instead chose to be completely cavalier, allowing large events to continue and boasting about continuing to shake hands. HMG’s response has been the total catastrophe which many of us were predicting as far back as early February.


I stand by my forecast of between 100,000 and 200,000 UK deaths.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I agree that the Government response was found wanting in the early weeks, particularly when it came to border controls and port screening, which they refused to implement.


However, the failure is across the pitch, including PHE, the NHS and the supposedly wise experts on SAGE - right up until the middle of March, they were thinking in terms of herd immunity and that is the truth of it.


Let us also not forget about the culpability of the WHO in this, who appear to have been more concerned about relations with the Chinese Government than the facts on the ground at the time (Jan/Feb).


 

New world order coming.
Justin W
28 April 2020 11:04:33


 


So you say my comment about people ganging up like bullies is completely out of order, then in your next post you call me or other people if they agree "stupid". Beggars belief! Seems there is one law for one and one for the other.


If you also read I did say the govt had been caught with their pants down as well. But whatever they do they are in a no win situation. I expect our numbers will be similar to a few other european countries, but not the worst.


Our unpreparedness is a legacy thing if you read Roger's great post from earlier. Truth is even with a Labour govt in, we would still be having these same type of conversations now. Even with the benefit of hindsight and seeing how this nightmare is playing out, it's so early doors we don't know what the final outcomes will be yet.


 


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Our death toll is already the worst in Europe. 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Roger Parsons
28 April 2020 11:06:49


Is your surname ‘Space’?



Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Thanks, Mr Case.


I consider that those in the "business of biology" have to shoulder some of the historical blame and I certainly feel I could have done more. I am not just thinking of medics, but all the biological scientists who understood the danger and the risks but blithely assumed all was well; surveillance was adequate; preparedness was sufficient; and politicians and the public were up to speed. As a former professional biologist and educator and member of the public I score my efforts "nil points" and I hope I can raise it to "must try harder"! The trouble remains that even in the midst of an outbreak there are idiots who think they know better and can ignore the advice being given - instead of doing their best to contribute to the common good. With regard to the critics - the American saying captures that - "If you are so clever, why aren't you rich?"


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Phil G
28 April 2020 11:07:04


 


Is your surname ‘Space’?



Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I'm not taking the bait! Thank you for your contribution.

Justin W
28 April 2020 11:07:32


 


I'm not taking the bait! Thank you for your contribution.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Is it ‘Gap’, then?

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gooner
28 April 2020 11:08:42


 


Really? Not the rate of pay or the back-breaking hard work or being outside in all weathers?


Or not being able to speak the local language (Romanian) 😉


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes really 


I listened to an interview yesterday , a guy was offered 4 locations to go and work at , the pay balanced against the cost of accommodation meant he was a couple of quid up 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil G
28 April 2020 11:09:35


 


Our death toll is already the worst in Europe. 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


What has all this finished then? Long long way to go yet!

Phil G
28 April 2020 11:12:56


 


Is it ‘Gap’, then?


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Yawn, you are really not contributing Justin.

NickR
28 April 2020 11:12:57


 


So you say my comment about people ganging up like bullies is completely out of order, then in your next post you call me or other people if they agree "stupid". Beggars belief! Seems there is one law for one and one for the other.


If you also read I did say the govt had been caught with their pants down as well. But whatever they do they are in a no win situation. I expect our numbers will be similar to a few other european countries, but not the worst.


Our unpreparedness is a legacy thing if you read Roger's great post from earlier. Truth is even with a Labour govt in, we would still be having these same type of conversations now. Even with the benefit of hindsight and seeing how this nightmare is playing out, it's so early doors we don't know what the final outcomes will be yet.


 


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


They could have "won" had they taken better decisions and not failed to stockpile any PPE.


Didn't need the benefit of hindsight: plenty of people (scientists, doctors) were telling them they were wrong and what they should be doing at the time, in early March.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Maunder Minimum
28 April 2020 11:15:05


 


What has all this finished then? Long long way to go yet!


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Justin gets hysterical sometimes - our death toll is not "the worst in Europe" - it is similar in trajectory to what has happened in comparable European countries (by size and population), with the exception of Germany.


Yes, I wish the UK Government had taken things much more seriously at an earlier stage, particularly when it came to port screening and border controls. But with the best will in the world, South Korea and New Zealand are not comparable countries for a host of reasons.


P.S. the European country with the highest official per capita death rate is Belgium.

New world order coming.
Phil G
28 April 2020 11:19:30
Mods have a word. I am trying to contribute to the forum but already have been called stupid this morning and now have another poster who thinks he is being clever and trying to goad me very very childlishly in some way. Very immature!
Sevendust
28 April 2020 11:27:05

Mods have a word. I am trying to contribute to the forum but already have been called stupid this morning and now have another poster who thinks he is being clever and trying to goad me very very childlishly in some way. Very immature!

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


To be fair you don't always help yourself but I agree that petty one word slagging is not achieving anything

Phil G
28 April 2020 11:27:21


 


They could have "won" had they taken better decisions and not failed to stockpile any PPE.


Didn't need the benefit of hindsight: plenty of people (scientists, doctors) were telling them they were wrong and what they should be doing at the time, in early March.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Yes hence my mention of getting caught with their pants down, but even now equipment, tests are arriving faulty.


Won? Even if they had achieved better PPE, earlier restrictions etc mark my words those who have the chance to have a pop at a govt will so, Conservative or Labour, that side of things seems to be human nature for some.


Any govt in charge wouldn't win in certain people's eyes.

Phil G
28 April 2020 11:30:40


 


To be fair you don't always help yourself but I agree that petty one word slagging is not achieving anything


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


I'm not really sure what I have to do or have done wrong Dave. If someone calls me a name, I have to respond if it wasn't called for. Find anything where I have attempted to belittle another poster first.

Justin W
28 April 2020 11:33:45


 


Justin gets hysterical sometimes - our death toll is not "the worst in Europe" - it is similar in trajectory to what has happened in comparable European countries (by size and population), with the exception of Germany.


Yes, I wish the UK Government had taken things much more seriously at an earlier stage, particularly when it came to port screening and border controls. But with the best will in the world, South Korea and New Zealand are not comparable countries for a host of reasons.


P.S. the European country with the highest official per capita death rate is Belgium.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Today’s ONS data proves the U.K. has the highest Covid death toll in Europe. There is no wriggling round it.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
speckledjim
28 April 2020 11:36:05


 


Today’s ONS data proves the U.K. has the highest Covid death toll in Europe. There is no wriggling round it.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Do you have the link please?

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Maunder Minimum
28 April 2020 11:39:11


 


Today’s ONS data proves the U.K. has the highest Covid death toll in Europe. There is no wriggling round it.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Depends what you are comparing against. There is a variety of reporting from different countries measured in different ways - the most accurate is to report confirmed hospital cases, although that is certain to be an underestimate. Some countries include excess deaths outside hospitals and some don't.


The most accurate measurement would be a retrospective statistical analysis of excess deaths over a period in each country, but that will take time to collate and analyse.


There is a lot of apples and pears comparison going on at the moment, both in terms of the way different countries collect and report their statistics and in terms of variations between countries. Our closest comparators are nations of similar size and population and demographics in western Europe.

New world order coming.
Justin W
28 April 2020 11:39:14


 


Do you have the link please?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending17april2020


 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
SJV
28 April 2020 11:39:53


 


Yes hence my mention of getting caught with their pants down, but even now equipment, tests are arriving faulty.


Won? Even if they had achieved better PPE, earlier restrictions etc mark my words those who have the chance to have a pop at a govt will so, Conservative or Labour, that side of things seems to be human nature for some.


Any govt in charge wouldn't win in certain people's eyes.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


It extends beyond the government, Phil. It is in our nature as you say to critically evaluate. In a situation as serious as this it is imperative we reflect and analyse what we could have done better. As you have already said it isn't finished yet but already we can look to some countries examples as better than others. Perhaps we follow their methods if there is a 'next time'?


In UIA, criticism of government methods is definitely more politically motivated but it is still rooted, I feel, in the wanting for the UK to set a good example to the world. I'd love to be on here praising our response but I don't feel I can do that, mistakes have clearly been made. What is there left other than to suggest (yes with the benefit of hindsight at times) ways in which we can do better? Politically motivated or not, it is the right thing to do.


Also, some would argue being in government is a no-win scenario - you can't please everyone all of the time and the loudest voices will always be those criticising or pointing fingers 


 

Justin W
28 April 2020 11:41:07


 


Depends what you are comparing against. There is a variety of reporting from different countries measured in different ways - the most accurate is to report confirmed hospital cases, although that is certain to be an underestimate. Some countries include excess deaths outside hospitals and some don't.


The most accurate measurement would be a retrospective statistical analysis of excess deaths over a period in each country, but that will take time to collate and analyse.


There is a lot of apples and pears comparison going on at the moment, both in terms of the way different countries collect and report their statistics and in terms of variations between countries. Our closest comparators are nations of similar size and population and demographics in western Europe.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


We have the highest death toll in Europe. Full stop.


It should be a matter of huge shame and regret but for some, it seems to be evidence that HMG is doing a good job ‘in difficult circumstances’.


It is grim beyond words.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
xioni2
28 April 2020 11:41:07

Mods have a word. I am trying to contribute to the forum but already have been called stupid this morning and now have another poster who thinks he is being clever and trying to goad me very very childlishly in some way. Very immature!

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


I don't like childish stuff or slagging matches. I didn't call you personally stupid, this is exactly what I said and I stand by it: If people are stupid or blinkered enough not to see that the govt has made a very difficult situation even worse, then that's their problem. 

Justin W
28 April 2020 11:43:00

Mods have a word. I am trying to contribute to the forum but already have been called stupid this morning and now have another poster who thinks he is being clever and trying to goad me very very childlishly in some way. Very immature!

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Just give over and grow up. You dished out the biggest insult I have ever received on this forum the other day. You aren’t the innocent you like to make out.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
xioni2
28 April 2020 11:43:06


 We have the highest death toll in Europe. Full stop.


It should be a matter of huge shame and regret but for some, it seems to be evidence that HMG is doing a good job ‘in difficult circumstances’.


It is grim beyond words.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Just one caveat, Justin: we need to see comparable estimates for other countries too, the FT is trying to collate the data, but it's obviously a difficult exercise.


 

Gavin D
28 April 2020 11:43:44
Nicola Sturgeon has announced a further 70 deaths from Covid-19 in Scotland the same number as they announced last Tuesday
Maunder Minimum
28 April 2020 11:46:31


 


Just one caveat, Justin: we need to see comparable estimates for other countries too, the FT is trying to collate the data, but it's obviously a difficult exercise.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Precisely the point I was trying to make.

New world order coming.
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