theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
03 May 2020 19:08:44


 


I don't think there has been a single recorded example of transmission from a child (U10) to an adult. So if the plan is to open primary schools only it might actually be a good idea.


We need to make sure the evidence is robust first ofc.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Clearly a big risk to take without anything concrete to go on - Russian Roulette springs to mind


 


In Switzerland, authorities said on 29 April it is now safe for children under 10 to hug their grandparents because young children “do not transmit” the virus. But German virologist Christian Drosten conducted a study, published a day after the Swiss announcement, which found children “may be just as infectious as adults”.

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


CreweCold
03 May 2020 19:14:51


 


This is a very silly post but I do agree we are about to move into the next phase of this crisis. I predict a bit of a sh*tstorm in trying to ease the lockdown. The logistics are going to be a nightmare. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Looking at the figures, NW England has a big problem. No chance restrictions can be eased here without it flaring the pandemic up again. % increase in cases is rising rather than going down suggesting the R0 is above 1.


This means as a region we'd likely have to remain in lockdown. That then means travel restrictions and road blocks etc. 


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Quantum
03 May 2020 19:16:06


 


Clearly a big risk to take without anything concrete to go on - Russian Roulette springs to mind


 


In Switzerland, authorities said on 29 April it is now safe for children under 10 to hug their grandparents because young children “do not transmit” the virus. But German virologist Christian Drosten conducted a study, published a day after the Swiss announcement, which found children “may be just as infectious as adults”.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Well that's the thing isn't it.


We don't do this until either:


a) The virus is at such a low level the point is moot


b) The evidence is robust enough such that it isn't a roll of the dice


 


Whichever comes first.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bugglesgate
03 May 2020 19:26:44


 


A lot of people don't have a smartphone, especially older and poorer people, so Im not sure how this App is going to work. I suspect it wont even be used in a meaningful way


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Not everyone has to do it.  Just enough people  to reduce R0 - it's a bit like the argument for wearing   non-medical masks.   Chipping away at R0 in various ways  to make sure it stays below 1  is really the only way it can be done.  There  can be no "absolutes" here.


As for your comment about the thread   not being as big.  There is only so much that can be said until something new emerges.


I'm not even going to comment on your comment that it will just disappear


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
speckledjim
03 May 2020 19:30:05


 


Clearly a big risk to take without anything concrete to go on - Russian Roulette springs to mind


 


In Switzerland, authorities said on 29 April it is now safe for children under 10 to hug their grandparents because young children “do not transmit” the virus. But German virologist Christian Drosten conducted a study, published a day after the Swiss announcement, which found children “may be just as infectious as adults”.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


If they do announce on Thursday that the schools will begin to reopen on the 1st June then they have over 3 weeks to see how we progress. We could be be in a good position by then so great but if not then no going back to school. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
The Beast from the East
03 May 2020 19:30:19


 


Disappear ……...do you think ?


Quickly ........we had a few  months notice , bit like your enemy attacking you with a ghetto blaster playing at full volume .


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


There was no second phase of SARS . Ebola and Mers also petered out 


The global stats do show infection rates fallling, even in countries that didnt lock down


Of course, we may not be able to trust the data from some of those countries but we can trust Sweden


The Swedish model shows that all you need is social distancing and a sensible population, you dont need to close everything. 


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
CreweCold
03 May 2020 19:33:50

 


And what would be this magical mechanism for it disappearing? This is a virus not some sort of curse that has a deactivation date.


It's highly contagious and if lockdown isn't required then how come rates are increasing again in NW England, despite the measures put in place?


Aimed at bfte...quoted wrong post originally.


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
The Beast from the East
03 May 2020 19:42:50


 


And what would be this magical mechanism for it disappearing? This is a virus not some sort of curse that has a deactivation date.


It's highly contagious and if lockdown isn't required then how come rates are increasing again in NW England, despite the measures put in place?


Aimed at bfte...quoted wrong post originally.


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


Sunlight? Trumps expert did say UV was a proven factor, before it got lost in the disinfectant row. Perhaps like a flu virus, it will go away in the Summer. US states in the south have been affected much less badly than those in the north. Even states that didn't lock down properly like Texas and Georgia. The common factor is sunshine and heat


I don't know about NW England, but overall the UK infection rate is falling. 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
03 May 2020 19:44:05

For me it's common sense; the more people there are travelling around spreading the virus, the worse the problem becomes.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Well yes that is true, but the point I am making is that once those initial few were out, if Countries didn't lock down then as well and these initial early carriers weren't isolated, it spreads amongst the population of those Countries rapidly and between themselves, but not especially carried by Chinese people. Mathematically the numbers that left originally are largely irrelevant if not isolated further down the line. With our course of action and that of others we would still have ended up with 30,000 dead whether 10 or 1000 infected people left China originally.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
CreweCold
03 May 2020 19:55:08


 


Sunlight? Trumps expert did say UV was a proven factor, before it got lost in the disinfectant row. Perhaps like a flu virus, it will go away in the Summer. US states in the south have been affected much less badly than those in the north. Even states that didn't lock down properly like Texas and Georgia. The common factor is sunshine and heat


I don't know about NW England, but overall the UK infection rate is falling. 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


NW England +690 cases and a 3% + rise. Can't lift restrictions with those numbers.


Also, how is UV relevant in most places of work or inside the home?


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
picturesareme
03 May 2020 19:59:40


 


There was no second phase of SARS . Ebola and Mers also petered out 


The global stats do show infection rates fallling, even in countries that didnt lock down


Of course, we may not be able to trust the data from some of those countries but we can trust Sweden


The Swedish model shows that all you need is social distancing and a sensible population, you dont need to close everything. 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Ebola is still around.


MERS still keeps popping up.. Its never been a major infector with around 2500 confirmed cases since 2012

CreweCold
03 May 2020 20:02:16


 


Ebola is still around.


MERS still keeps popping up.. Its never been a major infector with around 2500 confirmed cases since 2012


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Yeah and he seemingly doesn't understand that those infections don't have the virulence of a common cold unlike COVID.


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Bugglesgate
03 May 2020 20:04:12


 


NW England +690 cases and a 3% + rise. Can't lift restrictions with those numbers.


Also, how is UV relevant in most places of work or inside the home?


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


 


To be fair, it does seem to see off flu.   I think it's the old R0 thing again, in summer people spend less time inside and the thing gets zapped outside.  Although the UV argument doesn't pertain to inside buildings, overall the effect drops R0 enough to drop it below 1 so  the virus peters out.   However, I'm not convinced that Corona is as sensitive to UV as  Flu appears to be. 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Polar Low
03 May 2020 20:12:32

Mike Pompeo: 'enormous evidence' coronavirus came from Chinese lab


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/03/mike-pompeo-donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-laboratory


 

Gandalf The White
03 May 2020 20:25:32


 


I realise that they and other Countries didn't have hindsight so what would have made a difference then? 


The first mistake was that China has practices (and possibly some other Countries  which allow including high intensity pig and poultry farming) which are likely to induce a pandemic. This is a known and nothing has been done. It started there so I do attribute blame and responsibility for that on China.


But ask yourself this. Let's assume China followed what you think should have happened.


They became concerned that something odd was occurring in Wuhan in late December , early January. It appears that the local Government tried to suppress this and caused a two week shutdown delay in Wuhan. SO let us say they knew exactly what it was in late December and shut all borders and told the World they had isolated a virus in the state of Wuhan. The rest of the World would now be in exactly  the same position as they had been with Sars and previous similar viruses. They didn't do anything then either. They then quite quickly told the rest of the World what the genome of this virus was. Doubt that could have been done much faster. So then there would have been a fewer number of people visiting Europe or being able to return from China. But there are some.


Are you honestly and seriously saying that all of the rest of the World would then have shut all their international borders then? That would have been the only way to control it better. The reality was that China shut its border in late January and most of the World decided to wait and watch and see what happened, generally playing it down until March!


China closing its borders sooner would only have helped if the International community followed suit immediately and we all know they wouldn't have. That's not the area the future investigations should focus on with China. 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


You haven't mentioned the fact that China denied there was any person-to-person transmission until it was so obvious that it couldn't be ignored. That's yet another example of their wilful deception.  The difference between it being capable of person-to-person transmission and not is absolutely immense. If it's not then you don't have a pandemic.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
03 May 2020 20:25:51


 


There was no second phase of SARS . Ebola and Mers also petered out 


The global stats do show infection rates fallling, even in countries that didnt lock down


Of course, we may not be able to trust the data from some of those countries but we can trust Sweden


The Swedish model shows that all you need is social distancing and a sensible population, you dont need to close everything. 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


We all know you are so excited to get back into the Red Lion 


Many many experts are expecting a second wave of the virus , they cant all be wrong , why are you comparing this one to those , if they were like for like we could second guess it and we are laughing , we all know that isn't the case .

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
03 May 2020 20:27:53


Mike Pompeo: 'enormous evidence' coronavirus came from Chinese lab


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/03/mike-pompeo-donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-laboratory


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Quote from Pompey, "Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was manmade"


Which he then admits is not true.


I don't trust what he says any further than anything his boss says.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
03 May 2020 20:28:19


 


NW England +690 cases and a 3% + rise. Can't lift restrictions with those numbers.


Also, how is UV relevant in most places of work or inside the home?


Originally Posted by: CreweCold 


That's alarming isn't it ? I wonder what has caused the increase ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bugglesgate
03 May 2020 20:32:46


That's alarming isn't it ? I wonder what has caused the increase ?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


There must be a special factor - the figures stick out like a sore thumb

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Gandalf The White
03 May 2020 20:35:06


 


There was no second phase of SARS . Ebola and Mers also petered out 


The global stats do show infection rates fallling, even in countries that didnt lock down


Of course, we may not be able to trust the data from some of those countries but we can trust Sweden


The Swedish model shows that all you need is social distancing and a sensible population, you dont need to close everything. 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



  1. Ebola keeps breaking out because it exists in the animal hosts; the others are also still in there natural animal hosts. It is incredibly naive or ignorant to suggest they've 'petered out'.

  2. Do you know the R value and method of transmission for those three?  If you did you would understand why SARS and SARS-Cov2 are behaving so differently.

  3. Global infection rates are irrelevant. What matters is whether you have hot spots within a country or in countries across the world.  You could have an R value here of 0.5 and fewer restrictions overall but an area with a severe outbreak which required a full lock down.  If you recall, Wuhan was locked down first and then others arras followed; it was the same in Italy.  The global position is meaningless as a basis for national policy decisions.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ulric
03 May 2020 20:46:28


A lot of people don't have a smartphone, especially older and poorer people, so Im not sure how this App is going to work. I suspect it wont even be used in a meaningful way


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


But the money to develop and run it will go to an off-shore corporation. It's all in the plan.

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
CreweCold
03 May 2020 20:51:58


 


That's alarming isn't it ? I wonder what has caused the increase ?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


No idea, but it certainly isn't good.


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Ulric
03 May 2020 20:53:56


Mike Pompeo: 'enormous evidence' coronavirus came from Chinese lab


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/03/mike-pompeo-donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-laboratory


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Does he realise that the virus was being researched there because the US Government ordered and paid for it?

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gandalf The White
03 May 2020 21:00:16


 


Does he realise that the virus was being researched there because the US Government ordered and paid for it?


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Sometimes I wonder if you've read too much about Machiavelli.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Roger Parsons
03 May 2020 21:03:27


Does he realise that the virus was being researched there because the US Government ordered and paid for it?


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Do you think people ever wonder what kind of biological research goes on related to defense, Ulric? We need to know what dangerous stuff might be used as a weapon against us. And what we might do about it if they did. Errr.


'Nuff said.


Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

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