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idj20
04 May 2020 15:41:05


 


A new craze, hazmat clubs?


Originally Posted by: westv 



Given the state of the inside of most night clubs and the kind of people who frequent them well before lock down even started, catching COVID-19 would be the least of our concerns. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Sharp Green Fox
04 May 2020 15:42:27


 


We'll see how things evolve.


I just get the impression that things will become very nervy & stressful in a pub very quickly with all these additional rules. To be frank once people have had a few it'll just be unworkable in my view.


A gastro type pub may be a little easier.


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Can't see that working in the Red Lion Joe. When I used to go there it was shoulder to shoulder even on a Monday. They could all congregate on the bowling green I suppose.

springsunshine
04 May 2020 15:46:19

Buzzfeed have got hold of all 7 of the draft government documents on their plan to ease lockdown in workplaces

Customers would be encouraged to shop alone is one of the many plans drawn up

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/governments-draft-plan-to-ease-lockdown-workpace-in-full


So restaurants,bars and pubs to remain shut.As for hotels,i am a chef in one,if bar areas and seated restaurants are to remain shut then hotels will have to also remain shut or will have to be occupancy only and guests will have to self cater All a bit confusing! and how will housekeeping be carried out?? It raises more questions than answers.

xioni2
04 May 2020 15:52:39


I'd be happy to see more of Maria Van Kerkhove. Exceptional knowledge. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 she often does the WHO press conferences, which are quite informative, but our media don't bother. 

fairweather
04 May 2020 15:58:10


There are also reports of cases in China being traced back to November 17th, after they did re-testing there of historical cases. The USA also reported earlier cases following re-testing.  How true these reports are just leaves to be seen but it’s my view that by the time it was identified it had already spread hundreds, possibly thousands of miles from it’s source.  Patient zero has never been found. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


There are no doubt plenty of reasons why China can be criticised but I don't think the timing of their lockdown of international borders is really one of them. Maybe if a large part of the world had acted at the same time but they waited two months once they knew anyway.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
04 May 2020 16:04:34


One wonders what's the point in actually opening?


A pub as you describe is completely pointless - people would rather be at home. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

  And I daresay the landlords wouldn’t be too happy, as they’d surely be running at a loss!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gavin D
04 May 2020 16:06:17

13,258 in hospital down from 14,248 yesterday


85,186 tests yesterday


3,985 new cases


288 all settings deaths in the UK

Gavin D
04 May 2020 16:17:45

Daily slides 


Daily tests



New cases



People in hospital



Critical care



All settings deaths with rolling average


Gavin D
04 May 2020 16:19:39

Italy



  • 1,221 new cases

  • 195 new deaths

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
04 May 2020 16:24:48


I understood that it was observed that milk maids never caught smallpox and that led to the discovery of cow pox and the subsequent cure.  I think the risk associated with the test on the child was extremely low.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


This might be worth a read for anyone interested.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Jesty


Nick


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Quantum
04 May 2020 16:26:18

The Isle of Wight thing is my idea word for word!



2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Darren S
04 May 2020 16:30:41


13,258 in hospital down from 14,248 yesterday


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Looks like the drop is due to Northern Ireland's data not being available. In fact the number in hospital looks flat otherwise.


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Gavin D
04 May 2020 16:33:04

Regional data for new cases today in England


The 7 English regions 



  • London +160 (0.6%) 24,988

  • Midlands +279 (1.3%) 20,931

  • North West +303 (1.5%) 20,428

  • North East and Yorkshire +266 (1.4%) 19,233

  • South East +219 (1.2%) 17,756

  • East of England +134 (1.2%) 11,077

  • South West +82 (1.2%) 6,571


The 10 local areas with the highest cases



  1. Kent +63 (1.8%) 3,481

  2. Birmingham +24 (0.8%) 2,928

  3. Lancashire +42 (1.4%) 2,920

  4. Hampshire +26 (0.9%) 2,887

  5. Essex +14 (0.5%) 2,664

  6. Surrey +18 (0.7%) 2,626

  7. Hertfordshire +38 (1.6%) 2,379

  8. Sheffield +29 (1.3%) 2,220

  9. Cumbria +34 (1.7%) 1,988

  10. Staffordshire +35 (1.9%) 1,822


The 10 local areas with the lowest cases



  1. Rutland +1 (4.8%) 21

  2. Isle of Wight +1 (0.7%) 136

  3. North East Lincolnshire +16 (11.2%) 143

  4. Hartlepool +4 (2.0%) 201

  5. Torbay +2 (1.0%) 208

  6. Bath and North East Somerset +3 (1.4%) 215

  7. Bracknell Forest +1 (0.5%) 218

  8. Calderdale +3 (1.2%) 255

  9. North Somerset +2 (0.8%) 256

  10. Peterborough 257 - No change

JHutch
04 May 2020 16:35:31


 


Looks like the drop is due to Northern Ireland's data not being available. In fact the number in hospital looks flat otherwise.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


Good spot, did they mention that at the briefing? Agree that if you take the London line then it is fairly flat although generally a slight decrease.

JHutch
04 May 2020 16:40:17


The Isle of Wight thing is my idea word for word!



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Thought you might have noticed that!


 


Just for info, from sky website, Isle of Wight has the 8th lowest number of cases per head of population in England. Today has actually seen a record rise in daily cases of 16 (previous two daily highs on 1st May and 26th April were 15).


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-tracker-how-many-cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258

Darren S
04 May 2020 16:49:12


 


Good spot, did they mention that at the briefing? Agree that if you take the London line then it is fairly flat although generally a slight decrease.


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


No they didn't. But Hancock mentioned the total number in the press conference AND didn't say it was excluding NI. You'll see there's a note at the bottom of the slide stating a problem with NI data.


They should, therefore, have replicated the previous day's number as that will no doubt be closer for comparison purposes. 


To also put the total at the top of that slide and using it as a comparison for the figure a week ago is either shoddy data presentation, or deliberately misleading. I'd go for the former, as no doubt the NI data will be back tomorrow and I don't suppose they'll mention a rise of nearly 1,000.


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Northern Sky
04 May 2020 17:06:46

Remains to be seen whether this line of thought has any merit but there seems to be a growing number of people thinking this way - 


https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/


"I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake. I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden. They didn’t practise too much lockdown and they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity. I see the standout losers as countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict lockdown but didn’t have many cases. They have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity.


There is no doubt in my mind, that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor."

Phil G
04 May 2020 17:20:21


Italy



  • 1,221 new cases

  • 195 new deaths


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Italy death toll may be far higher, report suggests


From the BBC ticker:


"Italy may be relaxing its lockdown but the death toll from coronavirus could be far higher than has currently been reported, a new report says.


The Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) says thousands of fatalities not officially attributed to Covid-19 could have been caused by the virus.


The official death toll in Italy stands at 28,884, the second highest total in the world after the US. But from 21 February, when the first Covid-19 deaths occurred in Italy, until March 31, nationwide deaths were up 39% compared to the average of the past five years.


Of the 25,354 excess deaths during the period, coronavirus was registered as the official cause for 13,710, leaving around 11,600 unaccounted for.


ISTAT said these people may either have died of coronavirus without being tested or that the extra pressure on the health system meant they died of other causes they were not treated for".


 


How many more revisions? Certain countries not reporting their true figures, for whatever reason. Just shows we should not get too hung up on actual numbers in datasets that really ARE NOT comparing like for like.

springsunshine
04 May 2020 17:26:52


Remains to be seen whether this line of thought has any merit but there seems to be a growing number of people thinking this way - 


https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/


"I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake. I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden. They didn’t practise too much lockdown and they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity. I see the standout losers as countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict lockdown but didn’t have many cases. They have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity.


There is no doubt in my mind, that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor."


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


The last sentence is spot on, we have ruined the lives of the many to save the few.

Gavin D
04 May 2020 17:30:31


25 person lockdown street party 'with bingo and BBQ' sparks huge police response in Brambles Farm




Quote


A street party sparked a large police response in Brambles Farm. Several police units attended the scene at the junction of Marshall Avenue and Millbrook Avenue, in Middlesbrough, at around 3pm on Monday. A video shows a number of people in the street packed with cars and emergency response vehicles.


Cleveland Police confirmed that around 20-25 people were in the street having a party. Two men, aged 20, have been arrested on suspicion of public order offences and a number of people were issued with warnings for breaching covid-19 regulations.





https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/25-person-lockdown-street-party-18197931


JHutch
04 May 2020 17:37:02



25 person lockdown street party 'with bingo and BBQ' sparks huge police response in Brambles Farm




Quote


A street party sparked a large police response in Brambles Farm. Several police units attended the scene at the junction of Marshall Avenue and Millbrook Avenue, in Middlesbrough, at around 3pm on Monday. A video shows a number of people in the street packed with cars and emergency response vehicles.


Cleveland Police confirmed that around 20-25 people were in the street having a party. Two men, aged 20, have been arrested on suspicion of public order offences and a number of people were issued with warnings for breaching covid-19 regulations.





https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/25-person-lockdown-street-party-18197931



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Out of the 149 local authorities in england, Middlesbrough has the 3rd highest rate of infection per head of population

Gavin D
04 May 2020 17:37:42
UK data

Number of tests - 85,186
People tested - 62,956
All settings deaths - 288
Retron
04 May 2020 17:37:47


The last sentence is spot on, we have ruined the lives of the many to save the few.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


Warning: assumptions ahead!


Say, for simplicity's sake, that we've 5% immunity now, i.e. we've actually had around 3.3 million cases.


Gavin D posted these figures earlier:


    0-19 - 11
    20-39 - 152
    40-59 - 1,706
    60-79 - 8,310 (1 is awaiting verification)
    80+ - 11205


A simple 20x multiplication to assume everyone gets it gives:


    0-19 - 220
    20-39 - 3040
    40-59 - 34120
    60-79 - 166200
    80+ - 224100


A total of just over 420000 - not far off the initial herd immuniy estimates.


There are 3281955 over 80s (or were, as per the ONS estimates), so you'd be losing around 7% of them.


Now, from a purely economic point of view it makes sense to just let it rip. Take the losses of economically inactive and already ill people, save the considerable costs of looking after them and gain an economic advantage as the rest of the world continues to struggle (at least until a vaccine is developed). It'd rejuvenate the housing market too and we could all - well, those of us left - get back to normal by the end of the year. Economically, it'd be brilliant.


Society wise? Not so much. And that's why we had the lockdown, of course, as in addition to the raw numbers above there would be lots of extra people dying as the NHS imploded... not to mention the ethical aspects of letting hundreds of thousands die.


 


 


 


Leysdown, north Kent
The Beast from the East
04 May 2020 17:42:32


 


The last sentence is spot on, we have ruined the lives of the many to save the few.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


Some heartbreaking calls to O'Brien on LBC this morning about the side effects of lockdown - students being forced to pay full fees even though uni is closed. Mental health issues not addressed. Children from separated couples being kept away from one parent by another using lockdown as the excuse, small businesses going bust etc


This cannot go on for much longer or people will start breaking. I know we keep hearing that we love lockdown, but whats the point of being alive if you cant live. 


Just a thought that TV shows, films, other entertainment  production etc have ceased since March. We are going to run out of new material on TV to watch very soon and how can you restart filming with social distancing? 


Other countries coming out of lockdown now and relaxing 2 meter rule will have a huge advantage when they restart production of all goods and services, whilst we remain mothballed


Boris seems to have become over-cautious now, to make up for his lax approach in March. Our economy will be severely damaged as a result. 


The numbers of deaths and infections are falling enough to safely lift restrictions akin to other countries in Europe. We don't need to wait another month, and lose a competitive advantage


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
04 May 2020 17:44:04


 


This might be worth a read for anyone interested.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Jesty


Nick


Originally Posted by: NMA 


Fascinating, thanks for sharing.


 


S.Essex, 42m ASL

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