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RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 20:39:58


 


Don't forget the #RussiaReport


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Give it ten years or so like Chilcot.

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Gavin D
06 May 2020 20:49:46

Daily Mirror saying Garden Centres will be opening on Monday with Pubs reopening at the end of August under strict social distancing.


EXXLkY-UcAEw-TC.thumb.jpg.3582db012a9abb0a76a9c6024862d25e.jpg

xioni2
06 May 2020 20:50:08


 Give it ten years or so like Chilcot.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


"Now it's not the time to setup an inquiry"


5-10 years later, some half damning report will criticise politicians and officials who are no longer in power, not many people will pay much attention, a few lessons will be learned and the show will go on.


 

Polar Low
06 May 2020 20:53:07

Yes 
And Many of the problems will based around WIP and the components and SAP in Manufacturing for example


 I phones for example assembled in China but the supply chain and processes are around and close to China to get the bits can cause real big problems no point paying an assembly line without the components required.


to try to  get the bits from far away from assembling thus reducing profit margin due to transport cost and increased WIP time.customers don’t usually wait.


to get those different supply chains going with different restrictions is going to be a real challenge


 


Maunder Minimum;1212885]


 


The Times has an interesting story from Italy - it appears that many firms are reluctant to get fully rolling, even though they have been granted permission to restart production:


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/italian-workers-swap-coronavirus-lockdown-for-lockout-9sz2snhg5


"Italy’s efforts to breathe life into its crippled economy have been dealt a blow with the discovery that less than half the workers allowed to return to work on Monday actually got there.


Of the 4.4 million people permitted to resume their jobs this week as the country’s coronavirus contagion slows, fewer than two million were taken back by employers, Rocco Palombella, the head of Italian union UILM, said. “People didn’t go back because companies cannot start full production when the market has collapsed,” he said.


...


On Monday, as new cases slowed, a first significant relaxation of the lockdown was allowed. Of the 4.4 million people allowed back to work, about 60 per cent work in manufacturing, 15 per cent in construction and the rest in related commercial activity. “The problem is that only 30 per cent of factories reopened with a full contingent of staff,” Mr Palombella said. “Fiat Chrysler reopened its Mirafiori plant but took back only 1,000 of 5,000 staff. At the ILVA steel works in Taranto [in southern Italy], 3,000 of 8,200 staff are back. That’s why there was no crush on commuter trains and buses on Monday.”


..."


- so the evidence from Italy is that even when the Government gives the green light, business as usual (as per pre-lockdown) is not possible.


Gavin D
06 May 2020 20:55:30

​


Italian scientists claim vaccine neutralises coronavirus in world first




Quote

 


Scientists in Italy claim they've discovered the world's first vaccine that can neutralise coronavirus. Researchers from pharmaceutical firm Takis Biotech believe antibodies created by mice can prevent humans getting the killer disease. Trials could be set to begin in the autumn, experts say.


It comes as the UK's Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, warned that a vaccine may never be found to halt the virus, which has claimed more than 258,000 lives worldwide. The company's chief executive, Luigi Aurisicchio, said: "As far as we know we are the first in the world so far to have demonstrated a neutralisation of the coronavirus by a vaccine."


 





https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/first-coronavirus-vaccine-using-antibodies-21986533


​

SJV
06 May 2020 20:59:51


 


"Now it's not the time to setup an inquiry"


5-10 years later, some half damning report will criticise politicians and officials who are no longer in power, not many people will pay much attention, a few lessons will be learned and the show will go on.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


That's what I worry will happen.

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 21:00:30


 


- so the evidence from Italy is that even when the Government gives the green light, business as usual (as per pre-lockdown) is not possible.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Not in the least surprising, business confidence has been deliberately destroyed it's beyond belief what they have done.
Mostly on the basis of fergussons flawed predictions.

North York Moors weather 
picturesareme
06 May 2020 21:11:13


 


That has been confirmed several times by the German authorities, not only they record their deaths in the same way we do, but they have been including deaths at care homes from the start.


Most countries I know also record deaths in the same way we do (i.e. a positive test for CV19). Some countries (e.g. Belgium) even include the likely CV19 deaths (i.e. deaths without a positive test, but with similar symptoms). NY also reports daily confirmed deaths (positive test) and suspected deaths.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Again then you have failed to read what i included.. conveniently! 


We don't need a positive test in this country for it to go down as a covid-19, and on top of this we include likely as you mention Belgium. Again go back read and use links if your in any doubt.. especially the BMA link..

xioni2
06 May 2020 21:27:48


 Again then you have failed to read what i included.. conveniently! 


We don't need a positive test in this country for it to go down as a covid-19, and on top of this we include likely as you mention Belgium. Again go back read and use links if your in any doubt.. especially the BMA link..


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I read what you wrote and it still doesn't make sense. The official UK death count (the one published daily by HMG) only includes deaths where there was a positive test for CV19. Most countries also do the same, including Germany.


The ONS numbers are different, they include all deaths where CV19 is written on the death certificate (with or without a positive test). That means they can also underestimate the number of deaths as (many care home managers and stuff have said), sometimes pneumonia or even other conditions were put on the death certificate due to the lack of testing).


As mentioned many times, the only reliable comparison will be in the number of excess deaths, but that will take time as some countries are slow to report their numbers. 

John p
06 May 2020 21:28:22
Some deeply irresponsible headlines in tomorrow’s papers, particular the Mail and Telegraph.

People will be out in their droves at the weekend now - after all, the mentality will be, what difference will a few days make?
Camberley, Surrey
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 21:31:31



Not in the least surprising, business confidence has been deliberately destroyed it's beyond belief what they have done.
Mostly on the basis of fergussons flawed predictions.


Originally Posted by: four 


What is your evidence that the predictions were flawed?

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Justin W
06 May 2020 21:33:51



Not in the least surprising, business confidence has been deliberately destroyed it's beyond belief what they have done.
Mostly on the basis of fergussons flawed predictions.


Originally Posted by: four 


Flawed predictions being ‘250,000 deaths’ without a lockdown?


So we locked down and so far have had more than 50,000. 


One wonders what planet you inhabit.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Justin W
06 May 2020 21:35:44


I don't think there will be any significant relaxation of the lockdown next week and not before the end of May.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I think this is an effort by HMG to unlock by stealth so that when we get the inevitable second spike, it can say that it had not changed the guidance.


We are now heading for a second fiasco.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Heavy Weather 2013
06 May 2020 21:38:53

Some deeply irresponsible headlines in tomorrow’s papers, particular the Mail and Telegraph.

People will be out in their droves at the weekend now - after all, the mentality will be, what difference will a few days make?

Originally Posted by: John p 


I quite agree. The papers give the impression that this is it. Lockdown over. People won’t read the small print.


Whats the point of the PM addressing the nation if they have effectively just leaked all the information to tomorrow’s papers. People will just go on as normal now. The government should be taking the right decisions for the population, of just seems to want to always sell the message that we are you best mate.


One paper (The Metro) talks about the fact we now have over 30,000 dead. That’s the milestone these papers should be taking about.


Some of the headlines are in such bad taste.


What has happened to this country? I wish I’d never voted for Brexit. It’s turned this country into a disgrace, so split and the RWM make me sick.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
picturesareme
06 May 2020 21:46:08


I read what you wrote and it still doesn't make sense. The official UK death count (the one published daily by HMG) only includes deaths where there was a positive test for CV19. Most countries also do the same, including Germany.


The ONS numbers are different, they include all deaths where CV19 is written on the death certificate (with or without a positive test). That means they can also underestimate the number of deaths as (many care home managers and stuff have said), sometimes pneumonia or even other conditions were put on the death certificate due to the lack of testing).


As mentioned many times, the only reliable comparison will be in the number of excess deaths, but that will take time as some countries are slow to report their numbers. 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 



It doesn't and that is the point. It's figures are those where its mentioned on a death certificate as the cause or part of the cause, and as i have already shown that means jack sh*t as the guidelines were change by the government as to how a covid19 death can be recorded. It clearly states a covid confirmation test is not needed for it to be recorded, and crucially its down to the opinion of the doctors to decide whether covid was the cause (or part cause) of death or not!!

If you have a mild case of covid but end up dying anyway from lets say heart problems then the doctors can state covid was at very least part responsible for your death without the need for an autopsy to confirm this. Even if was so mild that it played no roll whatsoever.

It's the same as if those guidelines & expectations were to be enacted for the common cold, and that anybody with the common cold who dies must be registered as victim of the common cold. The death rates would be very high like they are for covid.

The is a big difference between dying from and dying with, and unfortunately the guidelines don't help.





David M Porter
06 May 2020 21:46:52


 


There will come a time for an audit of what went on - the unforgiveable aspects were not to introduce port screening and border controls at an early stage, to still allow flights to and from virus hotspots like northern Italy and to allow events like the Champions League match in Liverpool to go ahead with a crowd of supporters.


However, it does appear that the actions of the Government were in line with the advice they were getting - Vallance admitted as much in The Times today:


"...


Yesterday Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, admitted that free travel into the UK before the lockdown in late March probably contributed to the outbreak, saying that genetic studies showed “we got imports from all over the place”.


..."


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


If so, then surely questions will need to be raised about the advice the government received in the run-up to March, both scientific advice and more general advice.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
06 May 2020 21:53:17


 


Agree with every word there Justin. It’s been devastating. Yet HMG seem to act like NK spinning everything to look better than it actually is. Many other countries see it, but here you call it out and are chastised for it.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I also completely agree with what Justin said in his post.


Unfortunately, it was always going to be inevitable that the virus would reach the UK at some point; virtually every other nation in the world has had cases of varying numbers at one time or another. That said, while some deaths from the virus were always going to be very likely, sadly, the number of peoplen that have now lost their life to the virus in this country is really sad and extremely alarming.


We are paying the price now because the government failed to get on top of the developing situation at the earliest opportunity. Also, I think that one day much further down the line from now, BJ is going to have to explain to the country why he chose to skip FIVE meetings of the Cobra committee in the few weeks following the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK being diagnosed.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 22:04:56

It doesn't and that is the point. It's figures are those where its mentioned on a death certificate as the cause or part of the cause, and as i have already shown that means jack sh*t as the guidelines were change by the government as to how a covid19 death can be recorded. It clearly states a covid confirmation test is not needed for it to be recorded, and crucially its down to the opinion of the doctors to decide whether covid was the cause (or part cause) of death or not!! If you have a mild case of covid but end up dying anyway from lets say heart problems then the doctors can state covid was at very least part responsible for your death without the need for an autopsy to confirm this. Even if was so mild that it played no roll whatsoever. It's the same as if those guidelines & expectations were to be enacted for the common cold, and that anybody with the common cold who dies must be registered as victim of the common cold. The death rates would be very high like they are for covid. The is a big difference between dying from and dying with, and unfortunately the guidelines don't help.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


So what is your alternative explanation for the huge number of excess deaths the UK has experienced during this epidemic?

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Chichesterweatherfan2
06 May 2020 22:17:51


 


So what is your alternative explanation for the huge number of excess deaths the UK has experienced during this epidemic?


Originally Posted by: RobN 


I think the poster is unable to comprehend the fact that Germany has done an awful lot better than the UK has managed in dealing with the virus. The poster is so blinkered with the mindset that the UK is superior  to all other European countries... we have the best scientists, the best experts, blah, blah blah....

picturesareme
06 May 2020 22:47:08


 


I think the poster is unable to comprehend the fact that Germany has done an awful lot better than the UK has managed in dealing with the virus. The poster is so blinkered with the mindset that the UK is superior  to all other European countries... we have the best scientists, the best experts, blah, blah blah....


Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 


Really?  Don't be such a muppet. 

picturesareme
06 May 2020 22:52:42


 


So what is your alternative explanation for the huge number of excess deaths the UK has experienced during this epidemic?


Originally Posted by: RobN 


https://fullfact.org/health/covid-deaths/


Helps to explain your question. 

The Beast from the East
06 May 2020 23:47:46

Image

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
noodle doodle
06 May 2020 23:59:51
We have fared poorly because of brexit

BJ was focused on one thing - brexit. Once 31st jan passed, he loosened his tie, hit the gin, and went on holibobs for a month. Game over man, game over.

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