I think Harries said the infection rate is likely to be half of its current value when schools reopen in a couple of weeks. 

....... what is also very interesting is if you look at the animated map on the left at the same time (better on a PC than a phone) it looks although that levelling may be caused by a wave moving to the north east and Yorkshire in particular. You see as the pink vanishes in the South East blobs increase further north. In a way that is no bad thing in that it may just be that difference in lag time and as it subsides there then numbers will fall. The danger is if they unlock too much there it could spread south again. It hink perhaps they do have to look at this regionally, unless of course it is naturally dying out anyway.

Doesn't seem to be reflected in this data, certainly not for all regions. The one thing withe Zoe data is the sheer number of people reporting. So even if 50% are reporting symptoms that are not Covid it will not affect the trend because it can be assumed with that population size the mis-reporting would be equal each day. So the raw numbers i.e 250,000 currently reporting symptoms could be wrong, but the trend won't be.

The obvious reply to that, then, is if it isn't - does that mean they'll keep schools mostly closed? I'd bet not.

So now that there is more testing going on, I am hearing quite a few anecdotal accounts, of key workers receiving positive test results, despite being asymptomatic.  In one location they tested everyone, about half those with COVID did not have symptoms.
In one case an employee tested positive on day 1, then again on day 10 - no symptoms throughout. They isolated for 7 days following the first positive result, but have now gone back to work on their GP's advice. This person was only tested because there were tests available.
Seems there is confusion and lack of guidance about when asymptomatic people should go back to work particularly if they keep testing positive. Guidance seems to be around the period from the onset of symptoms only. Any views?

Asymptomatic people can later test positive for antibodies. I did post a story earlier from Camden in north London of 5 teachers who are taking part in a study and have antibodies despite not having reported any symptoms

http://camdennewjournal.com/article/virus-may-have-already-swept-through-school-in-spring

I report every day and don't have symptoms. But I agree it isn't totally clear how many of the 3.5 million members are reporting daily and that should be published really. I suspect it's still the biggest population sample kicking around though and the graphs tend to follow exactly what common sense would make you expect.

Latest on the app - to be rolled out 'within weeks' although whether that is a lot of weeks or not is not clear.

Downing Street Monday briefing

Asked if track and tracing being up and running a premise of the modelling that informed easing of shutdown in June....

.... No10 say they never explicitly made that link

(Wonder if Sage advisors agree there wasn’t to be a link)

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) May 18, 2020

I was reporting on it every 2/3 days but admittedly haven’t done it in a couple of weeks.

I deleted that app about a week ago because i was just reporting no symptoms every day and was running out of space on my phone. If i start developing symptoms again then i might reinstall it and report the symptoms. Not sure if this makes me a bad person or not but can believe that a lot of others will be doing the same.

I've been doing it daily (as it pops up each day as an alert). No option on there for whether you've had an antibody test though!

That is a drawback and I suspect other people do the same. Unfortunately from a science and statistics point of view "No symptoms" are equally as important to report and I don't really understand why people wouldn't . You don't get bonus points for having it !

Also, I have read from the experience in China that some people keep testing positive regardless. Odd I know. I read about one poor guy in China who is still personally locked down, despite appearing perfectly healthy, because he keeps testing positive. There must be an explanation somewhere for why that can happen, but I have not read anything on the possible reasons.

NHS England has reported 122 new hospital deaths up from 90 yesterday

Last Monday. NHS England reported 190 new hospital deaths

Lloyds have provisionally costed the total underwriting loss (all insurers, globally) at $107bn (Lloyds expect their own hit to be between $3bn and $4.3bn of that)

If lockdown restrictions extend into Q3, these figures will increase.

You wont be glad if you catch it thanks to Boris's reckless attitude

Not always, and is that a bad thing anyway? I love watching all the documentaries and history programmes. Always something worth watching every night

Like yesterday then

Should be a huge rise tomorrow when historical numbers are included

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