A sad comment on human nature

Benefit officials have told the BBC they fear that as much as £1.5bn may have been lost in fraudulent claims for Universal Credit in recent weeks.

Huge demand for the benefit has seen some processes relaxed to ensure the majority of claims are paid quickly.

But officials believe that some organised crime groups - as well as individuals - may have taken advantage of the system.

bbc.co.uk/news/business-52745983

This is because we are using so many small private labs which have been unable to scale up. The median is four days but the are plenty of reports of test results taking two weeks to come back from private labs.

I doubt the loss will be recovered, as it would be at further cost to investigate. 

It is. So is tax avoidance by non doms who are stuck in the UK for longer than allowed because of lockdown. 

I assume this means the Express Article was a load of rubbish about London cases then. I was expecting as such. 

Even if we have track and trace the delays to test results in the magnitude we are seeing will really cause issues.

I am guessing if there is a spike in new cases it’s going to be hard to detect?

I wondered about that myself. I'd be interested to see the figures if you have a link.

This was covered in the Horizon programme and it was shown that even after eliminating deprivation as a factor those in the BAME group were still at twice the normal risk.

As for vitamin D, it is known to play a role in the proper functioning of the immune system. This isn’t Covid-19 related.

Here's part of the article in The Times:

Covid-19: Being black does not put you at greater risk, researchers say

Black and other ethnic-minority Britons are no more likely to die of Covid-19 than white people after taking into account the effects of other illnesses and deprivation, documents submitted to the government’s scientific advisers show.

The finding, from research covering almost 24,000 patients admitted to hospital, came from a tranche of study papers released yesterday by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, used to inform the government’s decision-making processes. However, the researchers behind the findings cautioned that they were preliminary results, and it was possible they would change when more data came in.

The documents also show that among younger people obesity raises the death rate fourfold, and for those in their fifties it more than doubles it.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-19-being-black-does-not-put-you-at-greater-risk-researchers-say-vdf05prr6

Thanks; I’ll read it later. Odd that it offers a totally different conclusion to the research referenced in the Horizon programme.

But it still doesn’t mean vitamin D isn’t important for effective functioning of the immune system.

The Professor from Harvard Medical School whose research I linked a few days ago said there was "compelling evidence" that low levels of vitamin D increased the likelihood of severe illness from Covid 19.

Of course.  

In the same way, strictly speaking, a vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it either; it just means the immune system is primed to attack the virus as soon as it enters the body.

So, we have a full spectrum from a compromised immune system, where the risk is high(er), through to a healthy immune system, where the body has a good chance of beating the virus, through to an effective vaccine, which provides complete protection (but may possibly require periodic boosters?).

Indeed - and a good little video it was.

Let's cut to the chase here, there must be stats on white english dying from this. I was travelling along a packed Southend sea front yesterday where SD had gone out the window and I can tell you most people there weren't white english.

It suits the Govt's agenda for getting us all back to work and no need to shield BAME who are vital to the transport and healthcare sector

I think SAGE has been infected with Cummingsitis. 

It maybe true that minority groups are less likely for cultural reasons to stick to social distancing rules. Grandparents especially, who are respected in the family unit, would want to hug their grandchildren regardless of the official rules

But round here, the white chavs in the estates are also breaking the rules and mixing and having parties

Seconded.

Pretty sure it also said some studies have shown that those with low vitamin d are more prone to getting respiratory infections. Seems reasonable to infer that you're at a greater risk of catching covid-19 too if you have low vitamin d levels, although I guess that's not the same as saying normal levels give you extra protection - more that having normal levels may be required to have a healthy and normally functioning immune system.

It was also suggested that vitamin d plays a role in helping to regulate the immune system making it less likely to go in to overdrive. Again if true it makes sense that this would mean those with very low levels are more likely to suffer the serious complications that can occur and potentially more likely to die as a result.

Anecdotally I suffer from low vitamin d levels, which I found out a few years back after I was persistently ill for about 3 months one winter and went to the docs assuming I'd picked up a virus and couldn't shake it off. After they did bloods the only thing noticeable was I had very low vitamin D. I've taken supplements ever since and haven't had the same levels of winter illness, although I am still prone to getting run down from time to time, which I take as a sign to up my dosage for a few weeks. The docs seem a little 'meh' about the whole thing, as I like to have a blood test done to check vit D levels so I can adjust the amount I'm taking and they generally make me feel like I'm being a pain and wasting their time. Given how infrequently I visit the docs seems a shame that what could be a preventative action is discouraged and they'd rather wait until I get ill to decide maybe something should be done.

A lot of government reports from European countries on seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 this week and they all show the same - it's low.

Spain ~5%
Italy ~5%
Sweden ~5%
Denmark ~1%
Norway < 1%

Let's end the discussion about miracles and natural herd immunity? The data is in.

— Kristian G. Andersen (@K_G_Andersen) May 20, 2020

Well, a good news story in The Times:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/hospital-admissions-fall-to-lowest-level-of-coronavirus-crisis-f06w0rlt6

"The number of people seriously ill with coronavirus has dropped below 10,000 for the first time since the start of the lockdown.

...

Stephen Powis, NHS England’s medical director, pointed to figures showing 9,953 people in hospital with coronavirus on Tuesday, the first time this had been below 10,000 since March 29, the week the lockdown began. In mid-April more than 20,000 people were in hospital with coronavirus.

He said that hospitals were “seeing fewer and fewer daily admissions, showing the benefits of social distancing”, with 637 people admitted on Monday with coronavirus, down from more than 3,000 at the start of April.

Professor Powis said that the trend on deaths was “consistently downwards, and that will continue to fall as long as we all continue to comply with the instructions that we’ve been given around social distancing”.

..."

Relax, get the schools back, get back to normal.

Here's another fine mess you got us into, Boris!

Covid-19: Britain has higher rate of excess deaths than anywhere in Europe

Britain has the highest proportion of excess deaths in Europe, early comparisons between countries suggest.

About 55,000 more people have died in the UK this year than would be expected based on the average for the period over the past five years. That means that as of May 8 the UK had had 67 per cent more deaths than usual.

However, a quarter were not recorded as resulting from Covid-19. Experts have said that excess deaths as a whole are therefore the best method to compare the impact of the virus between countries. It will capture coronavirus deaths that have not been recorded as such as well as any that result from a lack of access to other healthcare.

There are still pitfalls, however. Not all countries release data as quickly as the UK, and some base their figures on samples of regions.

Belgium appears to have had the next highest proportion of excess deaths at 9,000 by May 3, which is 57 per cent higher than expected, according to data collated by the Financial Times.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-19-britain-has-higher-rate-of-excess-deaths-than-anywhere-in-europe-jd3fw3fg9

What are the figures for the UK?

easyJet are resuming flights on June 15th from the following airports

• Gatwick


• Bristol


• Birmingham


• Liverpool


• Newcastle


• Edinburgh


• Glasgow


• Inverness


• Belfast

The routes will be within the UK and to France