Everyone was banging on pre 2009 about modern era winters, and that we would never see a proper cold winter spell like those of the earlier decades. Then comes along the winter of 08/09 a cold winter that ended with some of the most significant snow seen in the southeast for many a year (decades for some). The winter after 09/10 saw a severe one, and one of the coldest spells seen since the 80's. Then the December of 10/11 season was the coldest on record! Since those three winters there have been a couple of other notable cold spells 2012, and also the extreme cold of the late winter early spring Beast in 2018 that saw widespread day time highs sub -3C in March in the south. The sea froze at the Isle of White. 

People talk of the memorable cold of past decades but they seem to forget that in between these cold spells there was plenty of mild, wet, stormy. and boring weather which is much that is more typical of our climate.

Taking away the winter of 62/63 as it was a truly exceptional once a every few centuries one. The remaining natable nationwide cold or snowy winters of the last century can probably be counted 2 hands.

Then perhaps you’re of those that doesn’t understand.

I have posted a more detailed comment; did you get that far before posting your one-liner? If not, let me know what you rethink after you’ve read it.

The ECM 12z ensemble set for London 2m temperatures is also quite encouraging if you’re looking for support for a cold outlook as we approach Christmas. One cluster offers average to slight cool and two others go into cold and very cold territory by the end.

If the low on the ECM at day 5 was 400 miles south then i would imagine folk north of the midlands would be talking of a snow event. 

An adjustment of a 400 miles over 5 days isn't impossible.

Agreed. But in which direction?

😉

🤣

Been looking through the GFS ensembles over the last 3 or 4 days and there is a definite trend towards colder evolutions as we head towards/beyond Christmas. Looking at tonight's 18z there are certainly some very cold runs in there notably 3, 6, 11, 12, 16, 18, 20, 28 and with some others almost there, or in between. Still a lot of runs there with an Azores/Euro influenced pattern and strong Atlantic influence though

I'd say momentum is increasing towards some sort of colder spell around/beyond Christmas and the Met's medium/longer term forecasts seem to back that up. As ever though it looks very finely balanced and the level of confidence is questionable. 

Certainly a more interesting outlook than recent Decembers.  

? I already said south.

Merry Christmas

It would be good to see a real White Christmas after a personal 80 years - white Boxing Days or a light cover on Christmas Day are the best I can remember.

But http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 still has the Siberian cold uncommitted to W Europe, and hanging around over Russia, while Europe's western fringes stay under Atlantic influence on the accompanying pptn chart - dampening in more senses than one.

GFS has a series of troughs moving across the UK from the Atlantic, and filling as they go,  notably Sun 13th, Thu 17th and Sun 20th culminating in a deep LP in the N Sea 965mb on Xmas Day, looking cold enough for snow on hills.

GEFS is very simple - temps near seasonal norm for next fortnight and rain on and off throughout. A few, repeat few, very cold outliers at the end.

ECM generally agrees with GFS  though the trough on Sun 20th is somewhat deeper, more of a full-blown LP

I had none in my 20 years in West Sussex, but 3 in the past 11 years here in Edinburgh! 

the changes we need in the current pattern won't be in the reliable timeframe for a few days yet, but we are not without hope.

And another Merry Xmas 

Hmmmm. Despite the odd Christmas cracker ensemble this morning the Ops have a more active Atlantic and less HLB. Bit of a wobble this morning. Hopefully the 12z will get us back on track.

You've done better for white Xmases in Edinburgh in that period that I have done here. We had two great white Christmases back-to-back in '09 and '10, but have had nothing since 2010. We also had some snow at Xmas 2000 and in 1995; the latter was my first experience of a white Christmas.

The charts at the moment are, shall we say, interesting, but that is all. Still a long way to go before we can be anywhere even approaching reasoably sure of what takes place at the start of the festive season.

Of course we need to remember a white xmas is quite rare in the UK , so no surprise if its a green one 

The ECM 10 day mean looks better than the Op. Pressure looks higher over the Arctic and also Greenland. 

None in 2004?

I got paid out by the bookies for a White Xmas in Glasgow that year (and Manchester)

Well that's some good news, but the OP displays one of the problems I was talking about yesterday - by the time Low pressure has got to the East of the UK, the pattern upstream is becoming unhelpful with another system heading towards us.

The journey to cold is circuitous from these synoptics and it's difficult to see how we get there.

Thank you. Very interesting and informative piece of research.

Oh dear. I'm guessing you are fairly young and don't have the visual evidence and living proof that Jeff and I and several others have of living through 70 years of winters. You really should read that excellent link that Steve Murr posted regarding the change in -5C 850hPa's.

An extract "Daily average areal extent of −5°C air at 850 hPa for the five coldest years (1968/69, 1971/72, 1963/64, 1976/77, and 1974/75, solid black line) and the five warmest years (2013/14, 2003/04, 1997/98, 2006/07, and 2008/09"

As for snowfall - have you read the classic piece by Bonacina . https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html

You will notice the drop in deep snowfalls and the term "blizzard" drop dramatically in the past 30 years.

You have to accept the evidence that these type of winters are less common but don't give up hope, otherwise we wouldn't be here in the MOD thread searching for them in the 850 hPa's !

Looking a bit different