Thank God at last for some brave honesty. All the last years people have been cowed from telling the truth. Speaking out honestly, speaking without fear of recrimination. At last the founder of this website has had the courage to acknowledge that it is indeed possible that The Magic Tooth Fairy is responsible for our rapidly warming climate. I never thought I’d see the day. 

Thanks Steve. It is good to see that what I thought was happening, is actually happening.

Interesting to see the mention of the poleward migrations of storm tracks, but I'm not sure it’s clear from this whether such change is the cause of the loss of "cold" air extent or a response to it, or, in fact, both. This from the abstract:

Cold years are characterized by an equatorward expansion of the jet in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the hemisphere and by invigorated cold-air production in high-latitude Eurasia and North America. Systematic poleward encroachment of the −5°C isotherm in the exit regions of the storm tracks accounts for nearly 50% of the observed contraction of the hemispheric wintertime cold pool since 1948. It is suggested that this trend is linked to displacement of the storm tracks associated with global warming.

Interesting also to note that December 2010 coincided with three periods of "extreme warm events" defined as more than 2 standard deviations, in the NH. Whilst not necessarily proof that you need an anomalously cold hemisphere for anomalously cold periods in the UK, its proof, I think, that warm periods (or indeed a warming world) do not prevent them!

Jeff

Some sharp looking LPs about again on this run, and have been for a few runs now... remarkable consistency for such intense features... usuall theyre quick to appear and disapear at this range...

Very 2014

Very poor 12s so far . My optimism is fast running out. 

Further out it is nice to see consistency between two consecutive GFS runs in FI. 

For clarity, yes I am being sarcastic.

My guess is the last two slides will show the start of a northerly or eastly plunge... 

forever out of reach...

The focus right now should be how intense can these storms get... 

Yes a return of proper zonality on the GFS and the UKMO backing down from it's suggestion of interest at T144 which never came any closer.

Looking out through next week, the difference between the 6z and 12z GFS runs is that the 12z ramps up the cyclogenesis out of Canada both in terms of depth and speed. 

As a result, the new low moves east quicker, not allowing the southwards ridging of the HLB into the north Atlantic, which ultimately acted as a sort of catalyst for the semi-resident UK low to move away NNE'wards and help promote more southwards ridging of the HLB to affect the UK.

In terms of impact on the UK, we just get a new massive low anchoring itself between the UK and Iceland, spinning more filth our way.

This 12z Op is an absolute bust.

Biblical levels of rain leading to a lot of flooding, and no cold in sight.

Give it another week and have another look , too early to say NO to a seasonal xmas 

FI GFS 12z very different to 6z , not worth worrying about 

I see the GFS 12z brings back the Christmas Eve windstorm, along with another one for Boxing Day. It is a million miles away in forecasting terms of course but that looks virtually identical to the God-awful winter of 13/14. Unless frequent rain and windstorms are your bag then knock yourselves out. 

It's the disappearing HLB signal which is the main worry. Still time for it to flip back but it's a major wobble now. It's always seems so painful to get a UK cold spell these days.

Disappearing in the last 6 hours? It is quite possible but it is not a trend as yet.

I think people up north really underestimate the oppression of the heat down here in hot spells —- which are become ever more commonplace. There’s no “settled” or “best” about it: summer heatwaves here are exhausting and miserable. Nothing to be jealous of.

The August heatwave this year was the worst I can remember: just day after miserable day of filth.

Quintessential southern summer days of 26c with a warm breeze are becoming rarer. When it’s sunny, it cooks.

Still waiting for the zonality to turn up this week from the GFS.

Let's hope im over reacting but the HLB does seem to be fadeing from all models not just the GFS.

Unlike the ECM 00z or GFS 06z output? And that is before we see the ensembles in the FI section. It could very easily be going but it is far too early to draw any conclusion.

Ensembles are pretty clear Steve and the UKMO at T144 has now backtracked, the Atlantic is firing up. Let's wait for the ECM and ensembles, but this one (in terms of blocked cold as opposed to transient) for around the Xmas period is slipping away.

Once it starts to go pear shaped it normally stays pear shaped sadly.

Yes, this can hardly be called a letdown because nothing concrete in terms of pattern has even come within T240, not like the great letdown of 2012 plus multiple others but that's one thing you do find - fail to put the ball in the net and the modern era is down the other end of the field knocking some more zonality in.

Yes, but that will not be known until we reach the time period, despite insinuations by others (who will go suspiciously quiet if the blocked charts come back again).

Indeed, it appears that some posters posting frequency is directly correlated to the speed of the jet stream across the Atlantic.