Just want to wish a Merry Christmas to all the readers, and especially the regular posters, on this thread! Let's look at a few sample forecasts for the big day:

Hamilton. Ontario: Flurries, -7c

Toronto, Ontario: Cloudy, chance of flurries, -4c

Calgary, Alberta: Sunny spells, +4c

Crail, Fife: Chance of flurries, -1c.

cheers to all!

Hello all, managed to make it across the Atlantic and i am enjoying a traditional scottish xmas eve with the folks, great stuff! Would also just like to echo Graeme's thoughts and wish all on TWO and especially Peter, Paul & Graeme a very Happy Christmas.

Weather is currently -7c in N Ayrshire in clear skies and the weekend doesn't look out of sorts with Ontarian weather :

Xmas Day : Light Snow/Flurries -1c

Boxing Day : Heavy Snow (Maybe Rain) 0c

Have a brilliant time.

Still a festive scene here in NE Fife with 5cm snow on the ground, despite a slow thaw. An incredible 25 mornings with lying snow here so far this winter. If you'd told me that 3 months ago I would never have believed it!

Hope everyone had a great Christmas!

No question about the top story in North American weather this weekend: the impending blizzard along the I-95 corridor and into New England and the Maritimes.

Here's the warning for Boston, as an example: 12-16" of snow, rates of 2-4" inches an hour at the height of the storm, winds Northerly 25-35mph.

Philly, New York, Providence and Portland should also catch blizzard or near blizzard conditions. Time to keep an eye on the webcams!

From there the storm will head into the Maritimes with NE New Brunswick also likely to see blizzard conditions and much of the Province likely to see 20-30cms of snow. Parts of Nova Scotia and PEI will see a snow to rain or mixed event, keeping totals down although conditions will still be nasty.

Not often Times Square is this quiet

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/?cam=lennon_hd

A very telling image, Martin!

It certainly ended up being one heck of a snowstorm. The largest totals seem to have been in New Jersey with Elizabeth receiving 31.8".

Looks like a pretty rapid warm up for the east by the end of the week. Many places that saw the worst of the snow will be in the 40s or even 50s fahrenheit by Friday.

Meanwhile over on Vancouver Island a massive, ongoing snowstorm which began on Christmas Eve has left over 3 metres of snow at Mount Washington: some CBC coverage here.

New Jersey timelapse over a 20 hour period.

32inches of snow!

http://vimeo.com/18213768

Great video that: this one is interesting too, showing the storm develop: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?collection_id=13587&media_id=44864021

Hope everyone had a good xmas, part 2 is approaching and that's when for a Scot, it becomes even more enjoyable! Certainly some impressive snowtotals from the Nor'easter over in the States and Atlantic Canada. One that really stood out for me was Central Park at 20" which is the 6th heaviest snowfall in recorded history for this famous locale. Also noted the snowploughs that EWR were using were 3 times larger than the ones LHR used last week, a wee tip perhaps for BAA's snowclearing department? There is however still a massive backlog in flights from all the NE airports.

The warm-up will be welcome although flooding as some areas over here are experiencing is a concern. Don't know about Fife Graeme, but Ayrshire is waterlogged!

As for Ontario, still cold at -4c in flurries at this time but there too there will be a warm-up as 2010 closes and any lying snow will thaw and probably dissappear as rain not snow brings in the bells on Fri Night. It does though look likely it will be a temporily blip as the cold returns for the start of next week.

As for current conditions in N Ayrshire, Drizzly and driech but milder than before. Not a massive fan of cloudy muck tbh.

Take Care

Hogmanay greetings from Fife where it's a lovely day, clear blue skies and sun, 5c.

First of all, I've mentioned this a few times over the last 6 weeks or so but the anomalous warmth over NE Canada has been incredible: Brett Anderson summarises it nicely here. Only anecdotally, but I don't recall Hudson Bay still having so much open water at the end of December in a good few years - see here.

Meanwhile as we close out 2010, most of the action in North America is out west where snow has pushed as far south as Flagstaff Arizona, and has brought the Denver area its first meaningful snow of the winter. From there low pressure will zip NEwards towards northern Ontario, the second system to do so in two days, bringing blizzard conditions to parts of the northern Plains - with up to a foot of wind driven snow likely. Further south there is the likelihood of some severe thunderstorms in the lower Mississippi valley.

Out east the thaw is on, with New Years Day looking a mild one in the eastern Great Lakes and NE States. Some projected highs:

Toronto: 11c/52f

Montreal: 7c/45f

Boston: 11c/52f

Colder air will follow the cold front by the end of the weekend/early next week.

Around average start  to the New Year temp-wise for Peter in Calgary, not as cold as it has been, high near -3c tomorrow.

It's been an odd start to winter for much of eastern Canada, with a dearth of major snowstorms for many - be interesting to see what happens as we head into the heart of winter. I fancy the Golden Horseshoe to see some modest snowfall next week with the way the jet is aligning itself. Could be one or two of those 5-10cm events. We'll see!

Will check in tomorrow to say Happy New Year, but whatever you are doing tonight - enjoy!

A belated Happy Xmas and best wishes for 2011 to all.

I haven't had much time to post over the holiday season but the weather has not been much to write home about to be honest. It's been cold (generally below freezing and around -7 to -10 at night) but there has been no further snow. There have been a couple of nasty windchill days though, a quick stroll down by the lake in these conditions is always a good way to walk off the turkey

Currently there is a big warm up in progress: +7C and the patchy snow cover has pretty much gone. Feels tropical out there compared with 48 hours ago. It's a temporary change though and we have one of those big Canadian temperature swings coming tomorrow evening - Accuweather has a high of +9 and a low of -9C for Saturday. After that it's back to ice days for a week or so with the possibility of snow Monday evening, we'll see. I do hope we'll see at least one decent snowstorm here this year - I haven't really seen a significant one since December 2008. Still, the skis are out of hibernation and will be in use next week

As Graeme says, amazing warmth over NE Canada this year, a real contrast to the UK. AGW? Weather? I'd better not go there , but doesn't sound like good news for the area, and looks like persisting at least into early Jan.

A Happy New Year to all!

Good to read your report Paul - I definitely think this week looks a more interesting for you in terms on snowfall - nothing major on the immediate horizon but as I mentioned yesterday I reckon there could be several small events throughout the week.

Sad to report that the last day of 2010 proved to be a tragic one in terms of weather-related deaths. The outbreak of severe storms, including tornadoes, caused at least six deaths. The little town of Cincinatti, Arkansas took the brunt with 3 people killed - CNN report here. 

Yesterday's High Plains blizzard is now into northern Ontario with up to 20cm of snow expected here, especially north and west of Thunder Bay...to the east a significant freezing rain event is possible - a pretty nasty way to begin 2011.

A glance at the current US temperatures map here tells the story nicely. Cold out west, mild to the south and east - it's pretty easy to see where the cold front is. 50 degree readings from Louisiana all the way to the Great Lakes. One effect of all this mild air was to postpone the NHL's outdoor winter classic game in Pittsburgh until later today when hopefully the rain will have stopped - 70,000 fans expected in the hockey-mad city for the game, should be quite a spectacle.

Enjoy the first day of 2012!

Well it reached a balmy +12.0c in Toronto yesterday, not quite the record-breaking +17.6c I was lucky enough to experience in 2005 but pretty impressive for January! Much colder today with the high likely to be around -4c, the cold front having passed through. Chance of flurries or more persistent light snow for most of the week.

Looking ahead, I see Brett Anderson is going for a continued west/east split for January - see here. While I like Brett's short-term takes on Canadian weather, like all longer term forecasts this is really just an educated guess. Not without interest though. Meanwhile Accuweather in general are starting to ramp up a mid-month cold spell, affecting the Plains and Midwest in particular - details here.

Happy New Year to all, currently cold around +1c in N Ayrshire as the daylight fades, fairly uninspiring stuff really! Looks likely that i won't see any further snow around here before i leave for Toronto on Thursday and i'm wondering having read the posts and weather online for the GTA for the first time in 3 days or so whether i'll miss some apprieciable snowfall over there too before i get back? Hopefully not!

Some quite amazing temperatures in Southern Ontario over the New Year and Hamilton and Burlington have made national news with the high marks recorded. Here are some Environment Canada observations from the 1st Jan :

Record warm temperatures to start the new year.
-------------------------------------------------------------
==weather event discussion==

A strong low pressure system from Colorado tracked across
Northeastern Ontario yesterday.  This was the third such low over a
period of only a few days and the resulting persistent southerly
Flow brought unseasonably warm temperatures to southern and Eastern
Ontario.  Numerous new maximum high temperatures records have
Were observed for new years day as a result.

The following is a list of new temperatures records as of 1 AM today.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Location            new record  old record    old record year

Windsor airport         11.3        10.4            2007
Goderich                12.1         9.9            2007
Waterloo-Wellington     10.5         9.0            2007
Hamilton airport        11.1        10.6            1966
Burlington Piers        12.7        10.7            2007
Toronto Pearson         12.0         9.2            2007
Toronto downtown        10.7        10.1            2007
Toronto Island           9.0         8.7            2007
Toronto Buttonville     11.4         9.6            2007
Cobourg                  7.6         7.2            2007
Mount Forest             9.0         8.8            2007
Collingwood             11.5         9.8            2007
Lagoon City              8.0         6.0            2007
Muskoka airport          8.2         6.7            2007
Parry Sound              8.2         7.0            2007

The Hamilton figure is the warmest Jan 1st in 45 years and Burlington got in on the act with the warmest temperature recorded anywhere in Canada yesterday at 12.7c! Not quite sure where Burlington *****is Paul? Debate is raging on the Spec website regarding it's locale, which also reports on the high temps and then the big cooldown behind - http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/308201--mild-temperatures-set-new-records.

Weather currently in Hamilton is -5c in flurries and as Graeme and Paul reported it does look likely that some measureable snowfall will affect the GTA and Golden Horseshoe through this week, nothing amazing but perhaps more than we'd seen so far this winter. I agree however with your comments Graeme regarding the lrf for Feb in particular that Brett just posted. He is a top notch forecaster but his extended outlook for Jan changed constantly during December so a drier pattern in Jan followed by perhaps a stormier Feb can be taken (for now) with a dose of the usual!

It will be interesting watching from afar over the next few days as to whether T.O. & Hamilton get some proper snow, hope it hangs on in there for Thursday!

Take Care

Afternoon from a somewhat dreich Fife: back to work tomorrow On the other hand, it's a short working week!

Looks like January may be a very interesting month in terms of North American weather. Here's Brett Anderson's take on Canadian goings-on through mid-month (something pretty much for everyone in there). And Joe B's busy hyping up 'the coldest US January since the 1980s'. Certainly looks like turning colder over much of the US next week, although continued blocking over NE Canada may mean easternmost/NE Canada remains milder than normal. The latest 12z GFS looks impressive for very extensive US cold by the middle of next week.

In the short-term low pressure tracking SE over the Great Lakes should brings some snow for Stewart returning to Ontario after the holidays - perhaps a widespread 2-4cm event with up to 10cm in favoured spots on Thursday. This same storm may then bomb out over the ocean bringing the threat of a decent snow storm anywhere north of New York through New England into New Brunswick. One to watch.

Hello all - v quick evening update.

We had about 1cm last night but it has mainly melted during the day as temps got just above freezing. More sleet than snow in downtown TO during the day. Currently flurries with a light covering. It looks like we may get a little more later in the week as we catch the tail end of a storm out over the east coast.

I have to say my "gut feel" is not to be too optimistic about overall snow levels this winter. This winter just seems more like last winter to me (grey days, less preciptation) than the winter before (lots of sunny days interspersed with more significant snow). This is just my impression though, totally unscientific, so almost certainly wrong

Stewart, I'm not really sure about "Burlington Piers" - I googled it and wasn't much the wiser - it looks like the weather station is somewhere over the other side of Burlington (Tyandaga - up towards the NW side of the town). 12.7C is incredible - I really didn't think it was anything like that here, so there may have been some very local factors involved.

Hi Paul, the way the pattern has been I think your 'gut feel' seems pretty sensible. Even looking ahead to next week, as a colder pattern sets in, much of the potential for a larger snowstorm will probably be to your south (hope I'm wrong though!).

That said it looks good for you to pick up a few cms of snow today as a weak area of low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. This same system brings the threat of heavier snow to New Jersey/NY State (possibly inc. NYC)/ southern New England as it strengthens on reaching the coast tomorrow. An interesting set up, which will likely produce a narrow band of 6-8" snows somewhere within these areas. It will then move north bringing snow to northern New England/the Maritimes.

Still looks like a potent arctic outbreak next week - some brutal cold into the Canadian Prairies courtesy of a cross-polar flow facilitated by a powerful area of high pressure over Alaska.

Hello folks, back in Canada after a wonderful trip home and back to some Ontarian snowfall! It's beginning to look more like real winter out there although we only have 4cm of snow on the ground from yesterday. Promising signs are for later tonight and tomorrow as EC are talking about 5-7cm additional snow from flurry activity that will enhance as the night goes on. I know by our standards this is pretty lame, but it's better than the majority of the last 18 months around here if it comes off.

Anyway, i'm taking the good wife out to dinner this evening in Hamilton, so better go. Cold stays with us and increases as next week rolls in as Graeme reported earlier in the week.

Have a great weekend.

Ah, a snowy looking scene in downtown Toronto this morning - the view down onto the ROM: http://www.rom.on.ca/visit/webcam.php

Certainly looks like 'real winter' is setting in Stewart, with another few cms to come today and a subzero week of temperatures on tap.

Not just southern Ontario getting in on the snow there's more snow to be had over in Atlantic Canada from the same system that gave the NE States snow yesterday pushing north: up to 15cm over NS. Normally this would not be a big deal out there but it's been incredibly snowless this winter.

Another snowy area is Alberta into Saskatchewan. Looks like Edmonton will see up to 20cm of the white stuff and the attendant snowfall warning is out. Peter in Calgary actually looks like missing the worst of this storm in terms of snowfall amounts but there is a blowing snow warning out and it will be cold, snowy and windy through the weekend. Next week is chilly in Calgary with the mid negative teens for highs.

Brett on Accuweather has the long range ECM call for more blocking over NE Canada and so a continuation of the unseasonable warmth there. Hudson Bay still hasn't completely frozen over and we're well into January now - incredible mild anomalies in that part of the continent this winter.

Stateside early next week looks very eventful with a widespread snow and ice storm affecting areas from the Plains through the Midwest, Ohio Valley, South into the NE. Generally snow to the north but a widespread ice storm to the south may be the big headline maker.

Enjoy the weekend everyone!

Indeed, going to be a chilly week/10 days - hilarious ensembles though, if they weren't for Calgary you'd swear they were faulty!

I'm sure Stewart and/or Paul will be posting later, the snow has really picked up in Toronto and amounts have been revised upwards to 10-15cm. Recent report of 'heavy snow' at Pearson [9am local time] - you don't see that too often.

Not quite warning threshold but a special weather statement issued:

Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham.

..Heavy snow bands off Lake Ontario..

At 8:30 AM radar showed a heavy east to west band of snow off Lake
Ontario extending into the Toronto area.  Localized snowfall amounts 
of 10 to 15 cm are associated with this band.  The band will 
gradually become more east-northeast to west-southwest oriented by 
late this morning moving the heaviest snow into the Mississauga and 
Oakville areas.  The band will weaken this afternoon as it shifts 
through the Hamilton area and into Niagara.

The heavier snow has now shifted out of the York Durham area with 
little further accumulation expected.

As the heavy snow bands move through..Expect visibility to be reduced
To less than a couple hundred metres at times..With near zero 
visibility possible in the heaviest snow bands.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SWS_bulletins_e.html?prov=on

Welcome back Stewart, and good timing - my pessimism was misplaced

We have had 7-8 cm overnight here and have just had another inch with an intense shower in the last 20 mins, so possibly going on for 10cm here. The most snow I've seen here since Feb 2009.

My driveway snowpiles are back although the kids have nobbled most of it to build a snow fort.

Interestingly the Weather Network was forecasting far less snow - 1cm for Oakville/Burlington last night, aad Accuweather was only going for 1-3cm IIRC). I don't know if we are picking up some unexpected lake effect snow (wind seems in the wrong direction for that), but I'm not complaining, nice to see some snow, particularly at the weekend.

Yes, finally winter paid a visit for the GTA and Hamilton areas this morning and quite a surprise to be honest in the accumulation totals for some areas compared to the forecast as you said Paul. Snow has stopped now here in Dundas, about 10cm lying from the combined effort of Thurs/Fri & Sat morning. Just saw a live report from downtown Hamilton on TWN and they don't look like they have much more than an inch / slushy deposits which means the road crews done a very good job in the city at least.

We did catch some lake effect flurries (significant) and from the dream scenario the East - if only it blew off the lake all the time, we's have Strathroy and Sarnia events! All that action was overnight into and through breakfast, grumble only that Toronto (Pearson) is reporting 17cm at this hour and they did get a semi-clobber from the lake band that dropped 7cm also on TWN HQ in Oakville, just up the shore from here. Paul, i'd imagine that you have more now than inland areas like here as the afternoon snowband from T.O. largely missed the Hamilton area but stayed fairly active on the shoreline so Burlington might have had more of an impact.

Snowband is now over St.Catharine's & Niagara producing whiteout and snowsquall like conditions briefly and accumulations according to EC of 2 inches per hour (5-6cm).

Here's some media coverage of an event that TWN report is the heaviest snowfall for Downtown Toronto since Dec '08 :

Hamilton Spectator - http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/319236--unexpected-snowfall-causes-trouble-for-motorists.

Latest King City Radar showing the band now over Niagara Falls - http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR.

Latest Weathernews online update from TWN -http://www.theweathernetwork.com/video/forecasts.

And our old favourite, Ancaster roundabout -http://www.ourston.com/resources/webcams/hamilton.html.

Glad i came home now! Oh, and it's cold at -6c and going to get colder and more proper snow forecast for Tue/Wed. Brill!

Snowy regards from Dundas