How about this then? It's from one of the ensemble members this morning.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=192&mode=1&carte=0

(EDIT: And thinking what Q said about ice days, -14.2C at 850 here gives a high of 0.5C. Looks like it'd be -15C or even colder to gaurantee an ice day at this time of year. )

16-dayer much as yesterday, though  n more rain around and over the Uk in week 2

Jetstream - the current W-ly splits into a branch to the N of the UK and another over Spain; by Fri 2nd the N branch has curled round to visit the UK from the N while the S branch has fragmented. Through the following week the N branch predominates at first, with the UK on the inside of a loop centred N Atlantic while the S branch re-organises and gathers strength to become the major feature by Thu 8th. Finally on Mon 11th the system is back to a point where the Atlantic feed splits into two one running across Scotland and the other through the Med.

GFS - brief burst of warmth Tue/Wed of this week as HP brings up a plume from the S but by Fri 2nd the HP has moved to SW Iceland 1040mb and N/NE winds are setting in over the UK. The real action starts on Tue 6th with LP moving down form the N ro be over NI 965mb  and extreme N-ly Gales off the W coast. That LP stays and slowly fills until being displaced by Atlantic SW-lies from Sun 11th. [the extended BBC last night also had a large blob of LP with snow moving down from the N on Mon 5th]

GEFS - as noted previously temps are high this week but fall off a cliff Fri 2nd (a day later than previous, and less notable in the N) and then dip further around Tue 6th everywhere (most runs 7 or 8 C below norm, one outlier 20C below!) before struggling back to norm Tue 13th. Rain Mon 5th onward, rather more than previously in the S, also an earlier burst this week in NW.

ECM - has a slower build-up of cold weather but similar LP in position Wed 7th with N-ly feed 970 mb S Ireland

Looks less and less likely that the cold plunge gets here, thank heavens. Warm air hanging on longer next week turning the first cool down into a toppling high pressure, then low pressure getting involved once the second big northerly flow sets up (as depressions are wont to do, with the instability) and deflecting the cold air westwards.

Thats the ECM, but GFS does much the same by the look of things.

well done. Nobody wants snow and cold at this time of year. Great to see that the models are rolling back from it.

Yes good if in another few runs the warmth remains and it's all deflected away from the UK.

OH MY GOD.

Ensemble 12 on the 0Z

No words.

I've hunted for exceptionally cold ensembles for several years. Occasionally you find record breakers.

The all time UK record T850, as far as I'm aware is -19.5C which was set in Kent during the January 1987 cold wave.

In actuality I've never seen T850s lower than about -17C (possibly set during the 2018 cold spell) but occasionally you do get ensemble forecasts that  get a bit lower. I've seen some ensembles get to around -21C for example.

But never, never have I seen -23.5C which is extraordinary before we even discuss the month.

Those sorts of uppers would produce some double digit maxima by day.

The record for April is -1.1C

This chart is beyond insane.

And obviously this is never going to happen, that's not the point.

To even see this is extraordinary. Again I've hunted for cold ensembles for years and the coldest I've managed is about -21C and it goes without saying always in the depth of Winter.

-20C almost down to East Anglia - what sort of maxs are looking at here.

As mentioned in my post first thing this morning - still above zero, as by the time the cold air moves south and it's daytime it'd warmed out.

It did manage to bring -8C by night here though!

I doubt it, anything below -14C at the T850 level will guarantee staying below freezing.

At -20C we are looking at -5C type maxima April or not.

Nope. Again, look at the post I made earlier today about that same run. Here, I'll link it for you:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1329666#post1329666

Extremely high *(record) MSL pressure projected over Greenland: up to 1100mb at 9GMT next Sunday!

Record MSLP is from Siberia at just 1083.8mb.

Yes, very encouraging output this morning again  lovely to look at my iPhone calendar this morning and it says ‘British Summer Time Begins” 😃

Sadly that is not true.

The extreme option are unlikely (hopefully) but the northerly flow looks like a high probability based on current GFS, ECM and GEM output

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_234_1.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_228_1.png 

Nothing compared to the 1107mb we had in the charts yesterday!

Jesus Mary and Joseph. Thought I had eaten something I shouldn't for lunch. I have never seen charts like that before.

Still nothing compared to Yesterday's which I have saved along with the P12 0Zs from todays.

Think the GFS may be overdoing it but with the ECM showing close to 1070hpa as we get closer to this event I think the high pressure watch thread may need to return...

Some exceptionally  low daytime temperatures should be showing for next week. So far they're not.