I like to think so but surely it can't revert to the numbing low dewpoints we've had for so long.  

Frustrating model watching at the moment if it’s dry and settled weather you’re after. 

There is often plenty of promise in the GFS operational runs, for HP to push in, often supported with a number of the GEFS, but the signal isn’t consistent, nor are the improvements getting any closer, they’re doggedly sticking well into FI. 

The ECM has never really been on board either , and today we have this at the very end of the run, supported quite nicely by the mean, sadly. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

I’d suggest we’re stuck in this cool and unsettled spell for a little while yet.

I don't get a good feeling about the forthcoming months at all. We are also way overdue a very poor summer as the last really poor one was 2012, and so I am afraid I would not be at all surprised if 2021 is indeed a washout.

Where precipitation is concerned it’s brave to make any promises.  I treat all future weather predictions as forecasts - helps ease the pain when they don’t work out...

Rain in the models every day here for the foreseeable future and even average temperatures will help the garden catch up.👍

I think the change is from cold to cool. To be fair, we have had rain here (nearly 40mm this month now), but without much more droughty conditions could easily return. I dug some ground early yesterday and it was dusty a foot down.

Both the ECM and GFS ensembles look ok average at best, but the weather is unlikely to become good with so much HLB still happening and there no sign of it stopping any time soon. 

As for writing off Summer in early May it's the equivalent of writing off winter in early November.  2 weeks is about as far as we can ever look and its looking mixed. 

The HLB pattern has already been here for 6 weeks. I think the chances of it lasting until June are unlikely let alone August. 

For a more general look around:

16-dayer - weather getting milder, with 'summer colours' reaching the Channel in week 2. Stillcool out to N Norwayand Finland but the blue for day-night below zero has just about gone. Rain persisting for both weeks over NW Britain (not that the SE is entirely dry) and across to Norway, while France, which has a wet week to start with, dries up.

GFS - current LP slowly fills in situ while HP builds on either side of the UK but is finally gone by Sat 15th. Then the Azores high tries to build in with some success for the SE but a series of small Atlantic depressions affect the NW at first and later (Fri 14th) the W. Finally Sun 23rd a larger depression appears over Ireland Sun 23rd 985mb, bringing up a plume which just misses the UK in favour of Holland, and then moves NE.  

GEFS - after this weekend, close to norm or a bit below throughout (op & control show warm outliers later). Rain on and off for most of the period.

EcM - downplays the Azores HP and allows the Atlantic LPs to take a more S-ly track finishing with Wed 19th 1010mb Irish Sea in the middle of a large cool pool. 

1975 just called to say you're being ridiculous...

1983 would like a word too. May was horrendous but July had the 2nd highest monthly CET of all time.

At a glance the outlook looks rather average which I guess is an improvement on it looking rather cool.

I think this is more likely than ever. Nothing remotely summery on the horizon.

On the other hand it looks quite “springy”.

21C today and warm sunshine was a big improvement on what we have had though , to say the least.

I don't ever recall seeing the 850 ensemble mean run so  tight to the long term mean for its whole length with this little deviation. 100% sure the weather will be well, average!

The abysmal summers in that 07-12 era that saw HLB'ing directing low after low over the UK and persistent westerlies tended to start with the HLB'ing in June/July (we had some really good spells in spring in a few of those years)

By September, the pattern had usually faded.

I'm hoping - and expecting - the HLB'ing to have burned itself out by the end of June. 

However, September could be something to look forward too. September often produces fine, sunny weather, at least away from the NW.

Agreed, the GEFS are not even giving a whiff of something hot at the moment and even though 850s look average with it being unsettled daytime temps likely to be a little below average. Of course it could flip short term but at this stage it's looking like June at least before what you might class as 'Summer' arrives.

Not for quite a while anyway.

As an aside, does anyone know how many Mays in the 1980s recorded 25c and above?