Indeed Graeme, very cold last night and all the snow nice and frozen now. Currently -9c but things are not looking great currently for this storm tonight/tomorrow. Less snow initially and more rain for the Hamilton area, perhaps longer cold and freezing precip as a result for Toronto.

Not as optimistic as i was yesterday as to keeping the snowpack intact, think we'll get some rain at some stage tomorrow now. For the meantime, glorious bitterly cold afternoon in Toronto just off Dundas Square eating a muffin and a latte. Perfect, if i didn't have to go back to a meeting in 20mins!

Take Care

Some of my Californian relatives have been getting a bit concerned about this news "story", that's all over the media there:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/38/20110118/tsc-scientists-warn-of-superstorm-headin-98fda55.html

Bein the sceptical person I am, and having read enough *****Corbyn articles to know sensationalism when I see it, I didn't believe a word of this, and instead found articles such as this one, debunking the likelihood of this arriving imminently:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/clark/story/44509/update-on-northwest-floodingirresponsible-california-super-storm-warning.asp

My relatives were grateful to read the link I found!

Thanks for posting that Darren, not without interest but as I see there is now a separate thread on this, I'll refrain from discussing it on here.

Things are really setting themselves up for a pretty extreme mild west/cold east pattern over much of the North American continent for the next week to 10 days. Western Canada in particular looks like being anomalously mild....giving Peter a break from the recent frigid weather.

Meantime Stewart and Paul, after a one day thaw yesterday are back into the freezer and, judging by the latest models, they're there to stay for a while. After plunging below -20c in southern Ontario earlier in the week, the same kind of temps could be on offer this weekend...then possibly again later next week!

Another snowstorm is spreading east from the Central Plains through the Ohio Valley and into the NE. A general 3-6" but once more the storm looks like deepening along the Atlantic Coast to bring higher amounts for NYC and, in particular, Boston which might see another 10-12" to go with last week's monster snowstorm.

Finally, an interesting post here from Jesse Ferrell on the persistent nature (rather than extreme values) of the cold over the NE of the US this winter so far.

Hello folks, currently -9c in Hamilton as the snow starts to fall again. Been really busy as usual so no time to update since Monday but generally speaking Tuesday's storm was a big non-event. A dry slot parked itself over Southern Ontario and so no rain or freezing rain for extended periods, briefly it got milder as in 2c for a couple hours before dropping again as darkness fell and the wind shifted to the NW. We did get some snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, light accumulations and as a result of not much rain or longer periods of milder air, we still have a very healthy snowpack!

Snow that has started now is associated with a big coastal lp (another Nor'Easter) that will break out on Friday. Light to moderate snows all the way down through the Ohio Valley from this and around the Great Lakes. EC expecting nothing more than 1-2 inches (2-4cm) from this, looking at the radar returns, very light precip at the minute across SW Ontario. Another near miss for a big one!!

Going to get super cold by tomorrow and daytime highs progged at -11c for the GHA Saturday/Sunday. Low's overnight well into the -20c's potentially. Proper mid-winter stuff. Flurries on and off as well over the weekend.

Take Care

Morning all, snowing again in the NE States, although it's generally a more modest 4-8" for the likes of Boston. Just saw some gritters out on the Times Square cam in New York!

Snowing too in Toronto and Ottawa although here it's more likely to be 2-5cm accumulations. Probably of more note, as Stewart points out, is the frigid airmass moving in behind these systems. I've been watching this for a week or so and the models have been very consistent in pushing the cold air east through the Great Lakes and into the NE States.

As usual EC are underplaying the depth of cold. I reckon by Sunday Toronto and Hamilton could be looking at -12 or -14c for a high and -20c or lower overnight. You can probably subtract another 5c off of those values for Ottawa and Montreal!

I'd imagine one or two places in northern Ontario will touch -40c at some point in the next few days.

In contrast it's warming up out west. Calgary will enjoy a relatively mild weekend with highs above zero and even much of Saskatchewan will be well above average temp-wise...high of 0c forecast for Saskatoon on Monday! Welcome relief from the mid negative 30s recorded yesterday.

Off to visit family this weekend so probably won't post again until Monday...stay warm!

ps For what they are worth here's an update from TWN on the rest of winter, along with Joe B's take on things.

Hey guys,

I am in St. John's Newfoundland where I have just moved. This is my first post on this thread! The temperature is currently

-2c. Arriving on wednesday there was about 10cm of snow of which has been melting over the last couple of days, there seems to be a wide variation of snow depths acsross the city depending on elevation . There were a few flurries yesterday evening which have not amounted to much. Looks like turning windy later on this afternoon before rain/snow setting in. The main snow event in the future looks to be on Sunday with 15-25cm predicted. I will keep you updated.

Regards,

Adam.

Morning all

Welcome to Canada Adam - will be great to hear some first hand reports from Newfoundland.

Here in Ontario the main news is the cold. The artic air plunge has really set in and it's very cold. Even the Canadians are talking about it being nippy... I haven't checked the actual figures but Accuweather had us at -22C last night and similar for tonight. It's been pretty cold for a few days - on Friday afternoon I made a stupid decision and went for a run, and had to abort after a couple of miles due to frozen sweat starting to stick to my skin (never really sure which is worse, running in a humidex of +35C or a windchill of -20C. ). Was also skiing yesterday early in the morning and the windchill was bitter, although the snow was excellent. You really need a face mask and i need to upgrade my gloves...

Currently around -17C under cloudless skies . Today could be the coldest day of the winter, with a forecast high of around -14C. We had around an inch of snow last night but nothing major is forecast. Lovely powdery stuff though, it reminds me of being in a ski resort. Things are forecast to warm up a little this week but no sign of us getting above freezing until February at the moment.

Hello folks, hope the weekend was good. And welcome to TWO and echo-ing Paul's thoughts, welcome to Canada Adam Keep the reports coming from NF, a place that often gets extremes of weather and a fairly stormy location particulary in winter but of course like most of Canada, a beautuful part of this vast country.

Boy is it cold this afternoon! Just done a quick temperature check and we're in record setting terratory for this winter and like the snow which still remains at 1 foot deep approx outside our door, it's been a few winters since we seen such cold. As Paul says, when the locals start commenting on it, then you know it's something. Must say that it takes abit of mind setting change, re - your run Paul, to hear TV talk about frostbite to exposed skin within 10 mins in such windchill. That is something of course that Peter gets more often over the other side!

Here's those temps,

Hamilton : Low at 8am this morning -18c (Air Temp) -26 (windchill/realfeel)                                                          

Toronto : Low at 10am this morning - 20c (Air Temp) -33 (windchill/realfeel)

That -33 prompted EC to issue a rare Windchill warning for the City of Toronto, Mississauga incl. Halton/Peel and points NE of T.O. And i must say it drew a 'WOW' moment from me!

Definately the coldest air here and it is also the case for Manitoba all the way through Quebec to the east also. Currently -22c in Winnepeg for example. The cold will ease after tonight gradually as snow approaches from the South-West associated with another storm system that is expected to track through the U.S. NorthEast on Tuesday/Wednesday. Again, a chance this storm will shift further west and hit areas of Upstate NY/Michegan & Southern Ontario harder that the current forecast of 2-4cm on Mon Night / Tuesday. One to watch, a big storm is the only thing left to round up this fantastic January spell of good old Canadian weather!

Take Care

Is ee my old home Columbus Ohio got down to -19C a couple of nights ago. Quite a cold spell over there. Columbus 'only' has 5 inches of snow on the ground according to reports from the airport. Probably more like 7-8 inches in certain parts of the city going off my experience there.

As usual with central Ohio, a tongue of warm air looks like raising temperatures briefly above freezing on Tuesday and again next weekend. But arctic air seems to dominate over there on the whole.

Not on the par of the 20C rises that I'd sometimes see in thos noses of warm air when I lived there. Very annoying, they would just clip Columbus destroying our snow pack. Places like Cleveland remained untouch.

Looks like no worse than 2-3C when those milder pulses of air hit this week. So they should keep the majority of their snow....with maybe a small top up in the process.

Very quick post to report that light snow is once again falling in Downtown Hamilton, but as expected we should see no more than a couple inches additional from this system that is clipping Ontario. Parts of the City of Toronto earlier this morning had a wee lake effect episode with upto 5cm of snow falling in 2hrs from it, very good for them.

Temp update, now -9c but was -22c @ 8am when i left the house (-29 w/c) This made it one of the coldest temperatures that i have experienced here since i moved in March 2006. Thankfully the car was in the garage and was nice and toasty inside. Unreal weather conditions!

Snowy and Freezing regards

Afternoon all,

Back from my travels and would like to extend a warm welcome to Adam...great to see another Canadian-based poster on this thread. Newfoundland is certainly one of the most interesting, rugged places I've been and one thing is for certain there's always plenty going on weatherwise! I'm sure you are well aware of what you are letting yourself in for: I know this winter has been relatively mild but in 2000-2001 an incredible 648cm of snow fell in St John's! Please keep us posted with the vagaries of the weather on the Rock.

As Stewart and Paul have reported some nasty cold in southern Ontario over the weekend. I spotted a -30c in Peterborough. In northern Ontario I spotted a -45c at Geraldton, that's incredibly cold and not too far off the all-time record for that locale (-50c).

I had a quick check through the last few winters for the number of days where -20c or below was recorded at Toronto Pearson.

2010/11: 3 (to date)

2009/10: 0

2008/09: 3

2007/08: 0

2006/07: 2

2005/06: 0

2004/05: 8

I spent the chilly winter of 04/05 in Toronto so remember it well! But as you can see it's certainly not a given every winter.

Hello folks, another interesting week of weather draws to a close in Canada and even more snow forecast for some over the next week. First up, i'd doubt Tallyho that 14c is a highest ever recorded figure for Calgary in January, Peter or Graeme could probably tell you more.....it might be a high temp for 27th Jan though. Calgary forecast for upto 4 inches of snow over the weekend and turning much colder also, the snow will stick without a problem, inherant cold on the surface will see to that!

Here in the GHA, cold but not fridgid like last week at -3c in flurries. We've had 2cm events during the week which in the wind get blown about and ploughed away, snowpack still intact at just over a foot (very impressive i think!). January is going to close like it has been for much of it with another clipper tomorrow bringing upto 5cm, maybe 10cm in one or two favoured locales then more fun awaits early next week as the next monster storm sets course for the East Coast of the U.S. It turns much colder also, -13c being reported for Monday/Tuesday and the risk that some substantial snowfall could invade Southern portions of the GTA. Time will tell on this one.

The last storm for the East Coast caused major problems again for NYC and Boston. 19" fell in Central Park, NY / 18" at Newark Airport, NJ and in Boston there's so much snow on the ground that local authorities can't put it anywhere! If NYC records more than an inch of snow before Feb 1, then January 2011 will be the snowiest month ever for the Big apple. So, that alone will stick out like a sore plumb for Mr. Joe ******i!!!

Another reason if required not to trust lrf's with much thought going forward unless the forecasts have been consistant in the run up to a season. Even Brett Anderson has flip-flopped this season on his lrf.

Whatever your upto, make it a great weekend.

Weekend greetings.

As Tally and Stewart reported above a typically topsy-turvy week of weather over in Calgary. There's been 10cm of snow overnight with a warning out for another 5-10cm today. Wonder if Peter will report in...anyway the webcams are looking nice: http://www.wx.ca/?service=page/SkyCams It's back in the freezer at -15c right now but after a frigid few days temps should be back in positive territory by Wednesday.

According to Environment Canada it reached 13.2c at the airport on Thursday so yes a very mild day. The highest temp ever recorded in January was +16.5c in 1987. I was surprised it wasn't higher actually!

What an amazing winter it has been for parts of the NE States - following on from a record breaking snowy winter for some last year. As Stewart reports some cities have shattered January records and yet others nearby are seeing well below normal snow amounts - there's a large snowhole in central Pennsylvania for example - pretty much down to the coastal track of most of the storms thus far.

In southern Ontario, the cold weather remains locked in and it'd going to be especially nasty on Monday - another sub -20c reading in store perhaps? - it looks a good bet. Interestingly some of the models are cutting a storm just to the south of Lake Ontario in the middle of next week. Regular readers of this thread will be well aware of the what that offers the cities of the Golden Horseshoe and Hamilton down to St Catherine's in particular. Too early to tell at the moment but this could be an interesting week for Stewart and Paul...

Meantime have a good weekend!

Hello, Calgary reporting in.  As many of you have already observed, we had a warm Chinook week (14c is high, but not exceptional), now this has been followed by an arctic plunge, which when combined with the moist Pacific air that is streaming over the Rockies, produces just one thing - snow - and lots of it!

As I'm typing this it is -15c and looks like 4-5" of the white stuff has fallen so far.  We will have to opportunity to study it in greater detail as we're heading up to Canmore for a couple of days away in the mountains.  Roads so far look snowy, but open, and I'll be taking the 4*4 Suburban for this type of driving.  There's an outdoor hot tub with our name on it in Canmore - there's nothing like soaking in 40c water while your hair is frozen at -20c.

To answer the question - there's no problem with snow sticking in Calgary in Jan.  The ground has frozen hard, and what a Chinook tends to do is turn 9' of snow into 2-3" of ice/slush on many surfaces.  It's still plenty cold, and even if it wasn't, -15c tends to provide the necessary encouragement.

Peter

July 2010 - June 2011 Stats
Elevation: 1084m
Latitude: 51° 6' N
Warmest Temperature: 31.4c 26/08/10
Coldest Temperature: -31.2c 23/11/10
Days with thunderstorms: 8
Days with rain falling: 48
Days with snow falling: 33
Days with snow lying: 81
Maximum snow depth: 9" (23cm)
Current snow depth 7" (18cm)

Yes, it looks like quite an interesting spell of weather if the charts verify:

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-102.png?12

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-1-102.png?12

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-2-102.png?12

That's a fairly impressive temperature gradient from northern New York state into Ontario,

Indeed! Looks like being a very interesting week over a large part of North America: depending on location, we're going to be looking at everything from a major snowstorm through freezing rain (perhaps a major ice storm) and a sloppy mix, to some severe thunderstorms (even tornadic activity)....and then some serious cold air to follow into the east by the end of the week.

Brett Anderson offers a nice look at what we've been hinting at (especially for southern Ontario) here

p.s. hottub sounds great Peter - enjoy!

Mmm, I think Stewart and Paul might have a passing interest in Henry Margusity's first stab at a snow map for midweek: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/45127/first-look-at-the-groundhog-day-blizzard.asp  This one needs close watching!

Hi all, not got much time this evening as we're off to family for dinner but my excitement at this weeks events just started to build even more :

Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region.  1:00 PM EST Sunday
30 January 2011.

Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville.

..Threat for Major snowstorm Tuesday night and Wednesday..

A low pressure system is forecast to develop over Texas on Monday and
then track northeastward to pass just south of the lower lakes as a
major winter storm Wednesday.

Meanwhile periods of light snow are expected to develop over many
regions Monday night or Tuesday.  A lake effect snow band could also
affect areas near the west end of Lake Ontario Tuesday morning.

The heavy snow associated with the major storm will overspread the
region Tuesday night then taper off Wednesday afternoon.
Potential widespread snowfall amounts will be in the order of 20 to
30 cm with local higher accumulations as well as blowing and drifting
snow.

This could very well have our name on it! Not counting any of the usual of course and the health warning is required, but by jings - things could get very interesting starting Monday night around here. I like your post yesterday Graeme about the typography of the Golden Horseshoe and what can happen in these events and i like even more when EC issue a potential for Lake Effect Snow in Western areas of Lake Ontario BEFORE any significant storm!

I'm trying hard not to overblow things but i have memories of the Valentine's Day Storm of 2007 going through my head and think +70cm from that storm and over 100cm of lying snow after it and ehum, just maybe just maybe a repeat???

Will post tomorrow with update, snowblower is primed and ready for action

Hi there.  Whats a Snowblower?  I assume it is a blower that removes the dry snow to save you sweeping it up?.  Thanks

Evening all

As our regulars have reported, it's looking like this week could bring our most signiifcant snowfall for a couple of years. Already weather warnings are hitting the mainstream media:

http://thestar.blogs.com/weather360/ 

Certainly looks like real potential for a proper dump around here, if we do get a lot I'll try and nip out with the camera. Ironically we're supposed to be going skiing on Wednesday so if there has been enough snow to really disrupt things on the highways we may not be able to get there

More immediately we have a big temperature drop in progress and Accuweather has a Burlington low of -21C tonight which is proper nippy. Just been out for a walk near the lake and it is very cold. The local creek is completely frozen and fine for walking on, although there is no significant ice on the lake at the moment near us. There may be more nearer the downtown area where the water is usually a little calmer and more prone to freezing.

peeps in west oxon: a snowblower is pretty much what you say, the quick way of clearing a drive of snow. They are very useful in a snowy winter, I use an 8 dollar snow shovel instead (ahem). If you go about 1'15"" into this (very exciting) video you can see a pretty typical one in action