At least it will be....the same!

I mean talk about a boring week weatherwise Although would welcome drier weather but this is a bit boring for the SW wouldn't you agree!?

Light winds, some sunshine, average temperatures, dry? Bank!

What has also bugged me is how we saw a warming of the stratosphere in October and early November and temperatures at 10hpa and 30hpa warming up early and a weak PV and zonal flow when the zonal winds should have strengthened and it should have been cooling rapidly, yet now, we are approaching mid winter and entering the 2nd half of winter but we are seeing the stratosphere cooling and the PV strengthening!

What has also bugged me big time is the fact that on the day of the start of Meteorological winter the AO and NAO went positive after a long period of negativity and we saw the exact same thing happen during the winter of 2019/20 with record breaking zonal flow.

I.E here you can see the first day of winter (1st December) just after that colder snap end of November we go very positive both AO and NAO:

AO

NAO:

It's going off the scale:

Hi guys, newbie here.

Agree with DM, whilst i can't help but get romantic and bleary eyed about a decent arctic or continental cold spell i'm also pleased that on a day-to-day practical level the forecasts look superb. Cold frosty mornings, less muddy dog walks, usable weather for outdoor chores, hopefully a decent bit of night sky stargazing here and there...

Fog could hamper play but really whats not to like?

M

Half of winter gone. I've had about 5 frosts and 5 mins of light snow. Anybody predicting a cold winter in the S.E  in future winters is looking at about a 10/1 shot and about 50/1 for a severe cold one.

Agree with that! Here we have had the same amount of air frost this week than the whole of the winter so far preceeding.

It is incredibly difficult to get prolonged cold in the uk,the synoptics across europe and the north atlantic have to be perfectly positioned.

I was spot on when I predicted this winter would be another horror show that wouldn't match last April, in terms of wintriness, but even I could never have imagined what a catastrophic embarrassment it would turn out to be 

Half way through and the first half has to be a contender for the worst ever. Pretty much every winter these days is a contender, but this one is shocking even by the rock bottom standards of the past decade.

Just about the normal frequency of mild days but no proper cold whatsoever. Stuck in the mind-numbingly awful 2-6C range, day and night, the majority of the time. Shedloads of cold rain and cold winds, like last winter, but with added misery of several days of North Sea murk like nothing I have ever seen in winter before. 

It speaks volumes that most of the best days have been the ones that reached double digits. We had some good sunsets and interesting skies mid-week but now back to the soul destroying murky grey grot yet again today just in time for the weekend 

No measurable snow cover since 3rd December and a total of 10 nights below freezing - four less than April managed. I would not use the term 'frost' because only one of them actually produced a frosty morning 

December was absolutely terrible but January looks like proving even worse with just 16.7 hours below freezing so far. A total of 61.8 hours for the first half of winter compared to 77.7 hours in April. A joke just like everything we get nowadays 

The lowest temperature so far is -2.4C, joint second worse with 2015/16 after 2013/14 at the mid point.  It makes me apoplectic with rage when even Europe's biggest heat island hellhole - Heathrow with it's joke readings has got down to -3.5C. Even Aviemore and Altnaharra haven't got as low as that this month 

The run of winters from 2013 to 2018 was so bad it was beyond credulity but what we have now is a new level of awful even compared to that. I can see this now turning out to be the third winter out of four that doesn't even manage 5cm of snow and it's just ever more unpleasant with cold rain, murk and gloom 

It just month after month of complete and utter garbage in the worst era ever for a weather enthusiast 

And on current odds, IMBY, I'd say a midwinter easterly* with 6 inches or more of powder, 80s style, would be a 50/1 chance, with a white Christmas, 1970 style, at 250/1. A colder than average (61-90) winter, maybe 20/1, with all three months below average at 100/1. All of these have become seriously rare events now.

Still, at least you've seen snow. It's been another entirely snowless first half of winter here...

* - I define "midwinter" as being mid Dec-mid Feb, others will have different ideas!

Yes, I think that fits: a couple of weeks either side of January, which should be the coldest month; or maybe we now have to say ‘least mild month’.

Whats the odds that March has a lower cet than January,or at least close to January Cet. Evens!

January has been crud for snow in the SE siince 1987,seen better snowfalls in March since January 87

January feels like a spring month most year.
February been rubbish too for decades.

[quote=Argyle77;1410331]

Whats the odds that March has a lower cet than January,or at least close to January Cet. Evens!

January has been crud for snow in the SE siince 1987,seen better snowfalls in March since January 87

January feels like a spring month most year.
February been rubbish too for decades.

[/quote   generally yes altho Jan 10 started well with heavy falls . Feb 09 too ]

You have a good point there as imby March has produced more snow than any other month except when the uk has been under severe cold during the meterlogical winter,recent examples are 2018 and 2013. With the odd exception March imo is more a winter month than spring.

So for all the coldies there is still around 10 weeks or so to get severe cold and/or snow

The problem with March snowfalls is that they're depressingly short-lived. We had two good (10cm+) falls in March 13 and, even though the air temp was only 1c, there was meltage, especially when the sun came out, as it's so much stronger in March than Dec/Jan. You struggle to get a few days, let alone a few weeks under snow cover. 

Speak for yourself, it all depends what you're looking for! It would be amiss to suggest that there is no 'weather' as weather is a constant. Having familiarised myself quite well with the forum its apparent that there is a bias in many peoples outlook for extreme cold and disruptive snow. I have a similar bias and why not? Its an exciting and rare evolution! However, to say that we are cursed to have cool, dry and mostly clear conditions is a little dramatic. The wolf moon was fantastic last night and the drive to work this morning across the frozen Weald in -4 conditions with the crimson sun rise (and moon!) was a delight. This is weather in action - favourable atmospheric conditions enhancing our enjoyment and appreciation of the world around us!

However, i am more than aware that i am speaking for myself too IMBY.

To keep OT it is rather disappointing that the current synoptics arent introducing proper ice days and snow showers when it seems we are so close with the atlantic kept at bay, but this is definitely a better pattern than we've had throughout the first half of the winter which was thoroughly miserable, especially from 22nd Dec (ish) when everything went bandy down here until the new year.

Its also rather disappointing that in recent years cold and snow events in the south of the country have been increasingly uncommon and fleeting. I'm not sure if this is rose tinted glasses and embellishment on my part when i look back at winters of my childhood, but there's definitely a pattern change. All of this has further inflated my cynicism when looking past 120hrs on the old models.

On the plus side, Tally, you're not too far from Exmoor which can on occassion get some cracking winter conditions in favourable situations. You can also wild camp via the right to roam if you want to go full Shackleton next time the Bristol channel whips up a little bay effect snowfall - It'll have you wishing for the summer in no time!

Well the thought of us being in the same pattern in a weeks time is a bit boring isn't it? We aren't getting ice days out of this and daytime temperatures are still in the high single figures which is at or even above average by day despite frosty nights although last night was a disappointment went it dropped to -1c and cloud rolled in around midnight so then the temperature rose to +2c by morning with the frost had melted. Furthermore, there is nothing really to get excited about - no ice days to record? Not overly cold -1 to +1c by night isn't anything unusual and in the north it's even worse - I don't think parts of Scotland are reporting much if any frost at all and usually if there is no wintry weather or excitement down south of the country there would usually be more excitement up north to discuss but it's worse up there and just overcast and a borefest. It's a dirty high really.

I remember NYE/NYD 2020/2021 we had a nighttime low of -7c and recorded an ice day on NYD 2021 here in Exeter. Frosts are not that severe due to cloud cover perhaps?

Bitterly cold weather now sweeping into the North eastern seaboard of USA/Canada and bitterly cold weather approaching continental Europe esp the east and SE including Balkans/Greece and Turkey yet the UK will miss out on it once again - lot's of snow showers heading down the north sea on Thursday but with the UK just on the edge of any snowy weather but sub zero daytime maxes just across the north sea on Thursday with snow showers - typical eh?

Best place for snow is southern Greece, Athens/Crete and Turkey and Cyprus!

Just to add insult to injury looking at the 12z GFS Op run - here the UK starts off with a pressure of 1035mb to the south:

0 hrs: - Day 1:

Day 7:

Day 10:

Day 14:

Day 16:

Where do we go from here? But a question why aren't we even getting freezing fog so that we can record sub zero daytime maxes?  So at least there would be something of interest happening at the very least!? Could feel positively springlike with this set up! Pity it won't happen in the Spring and Summer months but anyway...!

At least the weather will change.....in Belfast in particular:

(Sorry can't seem to get the image to scale right for some reason!) 

 But the forecast is for the same weather and temp from Sunday until Thursday - (+9.0c and cloudy).  

This has been a good January for sunshine. Most days have seen at least a few hours of it, which as been a pleasant surprise. It also makes the increase in daylight more noticeable too.

My mind is naturally turning to spring, so I hope there are no wintry episodes now. Though, saying that, winter will probably come in April...

What is this thing called Winter you moan of?

In May or June we will have a monster Greenland High that will sit there for 4 months with lows barrelling in across the UK, you just know it given our luck.

Like last year you mean😆

I can't remember such a let down of a Winter , yes there have been milder one's but this year was a tad different due to the background signals we have all read about .

Of course Feb and March could well deliver , time will tell