theweatheroutlook

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picturesareme
13 July 2022 13:47:21

29.5C was recently showing at Solent weather station. Unfortunately it only shows current realtime data so can't say what the max had been.

Currently here it's 29.2C but fluctuating quite a bit between 28/29.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Now 30.3C at Lee in Solent.

Gavin D
13 July 2022 14:34:36
The heatwave alert which was in place for parts of England until Friday has been cancelled early. A new one will start from 9am on Saturday.
picturesareme
13 July 2022 14:45:16
31C 😎
westv
13 July 2022 14:56:38

21c here apparently 

At least it will be mild!
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
13 July 2022 15:02:15

The Met Office has revised the chances of the UK breaking its temperature record down to 20%

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Sounds sensible. I expect the probability to drop even more as we approach Monday/Tuesday. Close but no cigar .....

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Rob K
13 July 2022 15:21:31
Seville had an hourly reading of 44.5C at 1400Z. Down a fraction to 44.1 at 1500Z. Wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in Spain hits 45C today.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
13 July 2022 15:52:56


 


Could be a day for Gosport Fleetlands.


Can we squeeze another 30c day. Going to be tight.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Indeed it was 30.1c for Gosport Fleetlands 


Frittenden 29.8c 


Quite a few 29s


Info on Met office twitter 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
briggsy6
13 July 2022 15:56:35

Didn't realise the Met Office had a senior forecaster called Jim Dale. All I can say is, Carry On the weather watching.

Location: Uxbridge
picturesareme
13 July 2022 17:05:23


 


Indeed it was 30.1c for Gosport Fleetlands 


Frittenden 29.8c 


Quite a few 29s


Info on Met office twitter 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I saw at one point at the nearby Solent site 30.8C and indeed over the water here in Portsmouth I hit 31C  so the final end of day temperature at fleetlands could still be a touch higher. 

nsrobins
13 July 2022 17:09:19


 


Sounds sensible. I expect the probability to drop even more as we approach Monday/Tuesday. Close but no cigar .....


Originally Posted by: GezM 


I really can’t understand this type of commentary.


It works both ways, but the expectation should be based on hard fact and what I’m seeing threatens the all time record. Anything else is really just hope-casting not forecasting. 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Matty H
13 July 2022 17:53:28
Given some of the still extraordinary charts, and the fact that even based on average it’s surely going to turn exceptionally hot for a couple of days or maybe three, what are the odds the Met Office declares a level 4 alert?
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
westv
13 July 2022 18:03:37
Paul Hudson on local news forecast suggested 35c here next Tuesday.
At least it will be mild!
picturesareme
13 July 2022 18:27:11

Given some of the still extraordinary charts, and the fact that even based on average it’s surely going to turn exceptionally hot for a couple of days or maybe three, what are the odds the Met Office declares a level 4 alert?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


5/6 day's down here have been above 28C so already a heatwave as far as I'm concerned. Only Sunday was a bit fresher with a max of around 26C. 


Also the past 2 night's haven't dropped below 20C!! 

CreweCold
13 July 2022 18:56:37

Given some of the still extraordinary charts, and the fact that even based on average it’s surely going to turn exceptionally hot for a couple of days or maybe three, what are the odds the Met Office declares a level 4 alert?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


It's a given I think.


They'll have to make a decision tomorrow because level 4 is school closures I think. Parents will need a bit of notice.


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Jonesy
13 July 2022 19:17:21
To be fair, us in the South East would have had a week of it already before many others get to experience the heat.

Not sure on the Level 4 and all that, people just need to be sensible, also lookout for the elderly and vulnerable as if we had a foot of snow.
Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Essan
13 July 2022 19:22:14


 


I really can’t understand this type of commentary.


It works both ways, but the expectation should be based on hard fact and what I’m seeing threatens the all time record. Anything else is really just hope-casting not forecasting. 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



In  my experience, max temps tend to be higher than whatever GFS shows at short range.  So ....

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Matty H
13 July 2022 19:22:34

To be fair, us in the South East would have had a week of it already before many others get to experience the heat.

Not sure on the Level 4 and all that, people just need to be sensible, also lookout for the elderly and vulnerable as if we had a foot of snow.

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Thing is a foot of snow would probably generate a red warning


People do need to be sensible, but people often aren’t. Also it raises awareness as it’ll be on all the news outlets, social media, word of mouth etc


No doubt the overnight runs will now show 14c and raining by Monday 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Sevendust
13 July 2022 19:22:58

To be fair, us in the South East would have had a week of it already before many others get to experience the heat.

Not sure on the Level 4 and all that, people just need to be sensible, also lookout for the elderly and vulnerable as if we had a foot of snow.

Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Irrespective L4 will be based on criteria


IF they are going to do this I think they need to move quickly for the reasons that CC mentioned unless they are going to focus purely on Tuesday

Gusty
13 July 2022 19:23:39

A light easterly breeze and an outside temperature down to 20c has enabled me to cool the house by opening the loft hatch and the east facing front door. Near enough instant relief as a cool chimney of air rushes upstairs displacing all that heat.


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Matty H
13 July 2022 19:28:35


A light easterly breeze and an outside temperature down to 20c has enabled me to cool the house by opening the loft hatch and the east facing front door. Near enough instant relief as a cool chimney of air rushes upstairs displacing all that heat.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Stupid advice according to some….


Naturally it really isn’t. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Gusty
13 July 2022 19:29:52


 Stupid advice according to some….


Naturally it really isn’t. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


you get some silly people in here sometimes... 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



CreweCold
13 July 2022 19:32:36


 


Stupid advice according to some….


Naturally it really isn’t. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Isn't going to work when outside temperatures are mid 30s+ with no breeze though is it.


Can only cut from so much cloth, with max temps of 37C and an overnight low of 25C the only way to cool down the house is with an aircon system. The majority of people don't have those.


Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
Heavy Weather 2013
13 July 2022 19:37:02
Crikey. I’ve just had a thought, we may have to have two historic temperature watches on successive days
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
westv
13 July 2022 19:57:01


 


Stupid advice according to some….


Naturally it really isn’t. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Maybe they are concerned what might come down out of the loft!


laughing

At least it will be mild!
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
13 July 2022 20:01:29
So, 46.3C in Portugal today.

https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1547283091416309763?s=21&t=RcoKTUfQkQVZ_m3epIEX-A 

I had been sceptical of the maxes modelled for Central Portugal but it seems this was indeed more of a hotspot than Seville.

Similar temps tomorrow, and mid 40s for several days thereafter.

Monday is the day to watch for Western France. Could hit 45C. Overall not as intense a heatwave as the models were showing a week ago when it was due to be a more zonal pattern, but intense nonetheless.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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