Yes unusual for GFS as it's been very good this summer.

As of yesterday for the meteorological summer months we are up to 15 days of 29C+, of which 9 have reached 30C.

So if recent ensemble means are to be believed we should end up with something between 14 and 18 30C days, barring another last minute heatwave in late August or September. 

Does anyone know if there's a site recording numbers of 30C+ days each summer (or each year) anywhere?

I found a chart on this blog page: https://wansteadmeteo.com/2022/05/10/30-degree-season/

but that only refers to London (it shows 13 days for 1976 and I'm sure there were more than that UK-wide - I think 15 days beat 32C somewhere didn't they?). The highest total on there is 14 for 2018.

I was 19 in 2006 so I’d say this is spot on. Many great memories that summer. Also, my mum born in 1965 is a very early Gen Xer so her ‘formative summer’ will probably be 1983, although she does remember 1976 very well too (just like I remember 1995). Generations are pretty big!

Both this summer and 2018 went yellow here - but recent rainfall has turned the grass green again. However the GFS is showing no rainfall at all here up to the 15th, so the grass could turn yellow again. 

I’m not sure there is anywhere that lists number of 30C days for the country as a whole - only ones I’ve seen are per station eg Heathrow. 

The coming heatwave now looks firmed up. Possibly the last of the summer, but at least akin to the July 2021 spell and possibly the extremely hot week of August 2020. This morning’s GFS op:

25,28,29,31,33,34,36,36,33,32,33,31,30,27,27,23

10 days above 30. 4 more above 80F. Only one day below the old red BBC temperature badge level and that’s at the end of the run. I remember when the red circle was a sign of exciting summer weather.

Met office ramping up the heat for Heathrow mid 30s by Thursday. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc&ved=2ahUKEwjrm8e39LH5AhUWR8AKHa9zAIkQFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3JgXsDJCgyInQuR8OANlW-

The Met office for down here have given several days above 26c which is unusual. However after saying that a light ENE breeze is a warm direction for us having travelled over most of the country first .

Quite a prolonged and widespread #heatwave across England & Wales is increasingly likely. Mid 30s possible. Check the app for YOUR location 🌡☀️ Temps may approach 30° into Yorkshire too… #heatwaveuk #Summer2022 #drought pic.twitter.com/c6kqshYdz0

— Tomasz Schafernaker (@Schafernaker) August 6, 2022

Anything for SE Wales?

As well as #heatwave conditions returning this coming week, tropical nights likely to return too#Temperatures not dropping below 20C overnight for some pic.twitter.com/E1Pj3WROxt

— Marco Petagna (@Petagna) August 7, 2022

The heatwave alert system is only used in England.

If things play out the way they are forecasted to, I expect this summer will turn out to be a very historic one. I usually find that you can add a degree or two to the forecasted temperatures, so if 36°C is predicted, we can assume that 38°C is a reasonable possibility. Let's let that play out:

1) A heat wave that brings the first ever 40°C in July, and virtually the entire country smashing their local records to boot.
2) A 38°C heat wave in August, that either sets or comes very close to a new August record.
3) Two 18°C+ CET months - a feat that only 1911 and 1995 have achieved.
4) Probably the worst drought since 1976 in the southern half of the country.

And whilst it's technically autumn, I wouldn't be surprised if September does something remarkable too, given the state of the land and atmosphere this summer...

Usually August is poor weatherwise (to my memory), but the last few Augusts have been warm, sunny, and mostly dry (Correct me if I'm wrong), as it was built in my mind that after wet and miserable August, the kids went back to school, first week September, and we had a sunny dry warm September...

The Met Office have issued a level 3 heatwave alert for East and West Midlands, South West England, South East England, London and East of England from 12:00  Tuesday to 18:00 on Saturday

The met office have also issued a level 2 heatwave alert for the rest of England

And we round the whole thing off with a late September/early October heatwave 2011 style. We get the first 30C recorded in October, the current record  is 29.9C on the 1st which is ripe for the taking! I see Coningsby holds the joint date record for the 2nd & 3rd :)

I wouldn't say "no" to that. October is just asking for a 30°C record!

We’ve begun our ‘official heatwave’ today with the temp topping 28c, our threshold here is 27c.  What was today’s highest temp?

From what I can see Charlwood was 30C (rounded?) and Heathrow 29.7C.

Will be very annoying if Charlwood didn’t manage a proper 30C today after getting nearly there in early afternoon.

EDIT: I see they managed 30.0C exactly, so we’re up and running.

I’m not expecting noteworthy temperatures here during the upcoming spell - this high pressure set up with an easterly flow coming from the N Sea usually moderates temperatures somewhat here. We do much better with a S or SE flow - much longer land track. It was the same during July 2018 when it was consistently 27-29C but never any higher. I also expect the nights to be relatively cool - wouldn’t be surprised to have a few days with diurnal ranges approaching 20C.

I’d actually expect Blackpool and the like to record some of the hotter temperatures under this setup.