This evening's BBC going with a chart looking very much like the ECM 0z from this morning - but then hedging their bets by saying we might get the W-lies shown in the GFS Op for the end of next week after all.

WX Temp outlook as yesterday  while generally cold air continues to occupy Europe (and some notably cold patches over Norway), week 2 now shows a resurgence of warmth from the SW to affect Spain, W France and S England. Rain as yesterday for week 1 i.e. concentrated but not exclusively in N & S of Europe, but in week 2 the dry area is further N, across S England to Germany while France is wet as is N Atlantic, and NE Spain really wet.

GFS - current HP moving E leaving Britain in shallow trough between it and new HP on Atlantic, hence N-lies but not as strong as forecast earlier. Atlantic Hp holds out for a few days but retreats to SW allowing LP to develop in N Sea 995 mb Wed 28th with NW-lies; this splits into two, half to Baltic and half to Spain while ridge of HP builds across Britain Sun 2nd. In final chart Fri 7th this is being pushed away by dartboard low 960mb S of Iceland. Two hurricanes are shown, Fiona being very deep in Gulf of St Lawrence Sun 25th, then a successor (Hermine?) on almost the same track but not so deep Wed 5th, not affecting Britain except in a general way by injecting energy into the N Atlantic.

ECM like GFS to Wed 28th, but LP is shallower and then retreats N-wards, with just the suspicion of a shallow trough affecting Spain, after which a regular W-ly regime applies with LP between Iceland and Scotland. Fiona as above, but the second hurricane is much deeper than for GFS and closer to New England.

GEFS - temps in S a little on the cool side until Sun 1st, then a little on the warm side. Rain on and off in most runs, the WX prediction above is only based on the Op. Temps in N definitely cooler to the 1st but with a one-day warm interruption on 26th, some quite heavy rain in the NW.

My grandmother was born on 19/9/1919 so I remember hearing about that cold snap!

Quite a chilly end to September on the cards, even a touch of ground frost I'd imagine in rural spots. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=311&y=102&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=0

Was with a walking group in Lake District first week of September 1997 (it was week that Princess Diana died) and we got caught in a snow squall, only settled for about 10 minutes.

Only time I have experienced snow in England in first few days of September, so it falling late September doesn’t seem a silly idea (if rare)

Quite a notable cold plunge for late September on this evening's GFS. Some northern areas may actually struggle to get above 10°C around midweek next week, especially with cloud and rain in the mix. 

Briefly - I have to go out;

Temps week 1 seasonally cool across N Europe, even N Spain, continuing week 2 with cold spots in Norway and a little warmth W France. Cold blast from N next week not lasting long enough to have major effect on this average. Rain generally week 1, week 2 v dry for Britain (also Aegean) rain in most other places.

GFS Op current Hp declines, new HPs in Atlantic and W Russia, shallow trough over Britain at first but deep Lp from N moving to E Scotland 985mb next Wed 28th with N-lies, soon filling and moving NE. New ridge of HP for Britain from SW, becoming centred Irish Sea Wed 5th

ECM similar to GFS though LP on 28th hangs on a day or two longer

GEFS cool to Sun 2nd the near norm with uncertainty at that stage; rain moving S over next day or two, then the op run shows little rain but some big totals in other runs esp after Sun 2nd

WX temps now seasonably cool across W Europe (I shall have to start calling this 'mild' soon) and any real warmth now in Med. In week 2 esp some early freezing near the Urals. Rainfall pattern changing again; in week 1 from Norway down to Italy and all points W including Britain; in week 2 a bit further N, from Norway to Rumania but again all points W and a rather heavy centred on Britain. Nil desperandum - yesterday Britain was shown as very dry in week 2!

GFS Op - Britain under shallow trough while new HP sets up in mid-Atlantic, strong enough for fine weather until Mon 26th, then a series of LPs bringing cool/cold and wet from the N or NW; Wed 28th 990 mb N Sea, Sat 1st 975mb E Anglia, Mon 3rd 965mb Hebrides (some nasty local storm force winds with this one), hanging around and eventually  becoming 995mb Sat 8th Wales before moving N again.

GEFS - in the S cool to Fri 30th, then mean a little above norm held there by a majority of ens members but op and control and some others cool; rain now and from 30th onwards, frequent and sometimes heavy esp in SW. Scotland similar though missing out on current rainfall, and rain in  the NE while frequent is not heavy

ECM - the Atlantic HP hangs on for longer so LP Wed 28th is further off, in S Norway, but to compensate that on Sat 1st is deeper and further S, 965mb N Ireland. However the weather then settles down into a westerly pattern rather than northerly

Looking at the models as I put together my end-of-week farmers forecast for my FB page and where did all that come from?! Low pressure firmly in charge over the UK by the following weekend after a week of northerlies, a very Autumnal outlook when I was hoping for a continuation of the recent benign mild conditions. 

And so it begins. 

Or does it? The 06z looking much more like this morning's ECM with much more of a westerly pattern from Oct 1st.

Today we got the most bloody strong sunshine that boost indoors temps very well and most sunniest since this rotten dirty HP left.  Rain at night and mild then clear sunny daytime is very helpful and take more valuable solar heating indoors.  If this can carry on often then we use less heating and no need for HP as they are no use and cloud generators.

WX temps a little cooler than average in W Europe, a little warmer in E Europe, still warm in the E Med and Black Sea areas but cooling there in week 2; the freezing area noted yesterday beyond the Urals is much diminished today. Still no consistency in the rainfall pattern; quite widely distributed in week 1, but week 2 definitely altered with v dry area in C Europe and heavy rain over Pyrenees and separately Scandinavia to W Russia. Britain just averagely damp in N, drier in SE.

Jet - streaks from the N over or close to Britain to Thu 29th, then from the W to Tue 4th after which any activity is cleared to the N.

GFS Op - the N-ly pattern is back as on yesterday's 00z though absent for 06z. The current HP withdraws W-wards allowing LP to slide SE to N Sea 995 mb Wed 28th with N or NW-ly winds. Then deep LP near Iceland brings in a W-ly pattern until Tue 4th when a portion breaks off to Shetland 990 mb, followed almost immediately by rise of pressure on the Atlantic eventually 1025mb covering UK Mon 10th (but in getting there, some N-lies close to E coast). (Ex-)hurricanes ravaging Canada Sun 25th, Tue 4th and Mon 10th but no direct effect on this side of Atlantic.

ECM - something like GFS in outline but the 'LP near Iceland' is instead an LP 965mb Scotland Sat 1st with stronger W-lies further S, and even though this fills, LP remains closer to Scotland with W-lies covering all Britain down to Channel.

GEFS - general ens agreement on cool to Sat 1st (even cold near Wed 28th, though brief burst of warmth esp in N 26th), after which a spread of outcomes though mean stays near norm. Rain from time to time, most likely and heaviest near Sat 1st, and a tendency to appear in more ens members after that date despite GFS pressure patterns. 

Quite a model divergence in the 7 days range with ECM being keen on the idea of an active and deep low pressure taking a short cut through Scotland while GFS - who normally likes dartboard lows - shows a much more relaxed high pressure influenced set up. Unfortunately UKMO is siding with ECM so I have a feelling GFS may end up playing catch up. 

I could get deeper into this by looking at ensembles, etc, etc, but I got things to be getting on with (about to embark on a major doodle project). 

And still saying the same thing 24 hour later, but all in 6 days away. ECM being bullish about deep low right atop the UK while GFS has it all much further north. UKMO similar to ECM but shallower.

A bit late getting up this morning - see Daily Thread for reason.

WX temp outlook; week  still cool over W Europe and definitely cold to N & E; week 2 some warmer weather working back in from SW  reaching Channel coasts but not affecting further N & E i.e. Iceland to Murmansk. Rain generally across Europe week 1, in week 2 very dry for Britain down to the Alps and rain on the edges of this area. (but the rainfall outlook changes day by day)

GFS Op ; LP sliding SE-wards to southern N Sea 995mb Wed 28th with N/NW-lies before filling. HP begins to affect SW Fri 30th and grows from there for a prolonged spell eventually 1030mb N England Fri 7th finally giving way to W-lies. Nearest deep LP during this time is 965mb E Iceland Sat 1st. Remnants of tropical storms on W Atlantic diverted N-wards by the HP block.

ECM ; the first LP  on Wed 28th not as deep as on GFS but then rather different around Sat 1st with a second LP 975mb S Scotland, not Iceland, with NW-lies before that moves away and HP block then in place later, 1030mb C England Wed 5th

GEFS ; cool to Sat 1st then warm for a few days (only average in Scotland) before mean drops back to norm temp in the middle of then much uncertainty, rain mostly around Sat 1st, not much at other times in S, more continuous in NW

I wonder if the differences are due to the remains of Hurricane Fiona which seems to be tracking towards an area over the sea between Greenland and Canada.   Very rare to get such an intense (if rapidly diminishing) storm in the West Greenland area.  Probably not a lot of history, or it is quite a weak area in the models programmes as to what happens next, hence the variation in the detail of the ensembles.  

We have seen similar before when there are remains of big Hurricanes in North Atlantic with inconsistency over how far north or how deep lows will be when they are 5+ days out.   Not a case of will there be low pressure, that’s virtually given, it’s just where it will be centred and how intense.

WX temps week 1 as before, cool for W Europe, some warmth on extreme W fringes, cold in the far NE. Week 2, the Atlantic warmth pushes a bit further inland and up to S England while the cold weather moves further W, to the Polish border and across N Scandinavia, creating something of a temp gradient W-E over Germany. Rain - forget yesterday's dry areas - week 1 quite a lot of rain everywhere in Europe exc Spain; week 2 less but still patchy for mainland Europe, the heavy stuff is reserved for Iceland - N Scotland - Norway.

Jet - strong jet developing across England Fri 30th lasting 2 or 3 days; briefly quiet than another blast, this time across N Scotland from Wed 5th which ties itself into a loop around Britain Mon 10th before braking up.

GFS Op - LP currently near Iceland but projecting N/NW-lies a long way south with accompanying fronts, itself moving to N Sea Wed 28th; new low Sat 1st 975 mb near Iceland again with trough projecting all the way down to S England. Then quieter W-lies for a while, the next deep LP appears Sun 9th 975mb Faeroes but fills and in conjunction with LP near Greenland brings in strong and mild SW-lies Wed 12th

GEFS - cold/cool to Sat 1st after which mean near norm but no real agreement in ens members; rain event near the 1st, bits and pieces on and off for the rest of the forecast period for most, but more particularly in the NW in the week following , and in the SW the week after.

ECM - as GFS to Sat 1st but LP nearer Scotland in the days immediately following, not deep but probably damp;  but then (this is now 12z from yesterday , I have to go out and can't wait for 0z to download) agreeing on quieter W-lies from Tue 4th

Models aside. This feels like the coldest end to September I can ever recall.

I have a notion that days below 15c do not arrive until around the 15th October.

~It is only 11c in London at the moment!