So we head towards March after another wet and very mild February, what will March bring? we all went too cold for February so we already know who won February with Windywillow's 6.90c prediction that is still likely to be 1c off the actual but well done. 

Historical data below, I've added all-time CET data as well as my more usual 1970 onwards reference period. 

I will post my guess here either tomorrow or Thursday. 

March Historical Statistics
All-time CET  Average 5.42c
1991 – 2020 Average  6.74c

All time
Warmest
1957     9.20
1938     9.10
2017     8.80
2012     8.40
1997     8.30
Coldest
1674     1.0
1785     1.2
1748     1.8
1883     1.9
1845     2.0

Since 1970
Warmest
2017     8.8
1997     8.4
2012     8.4
1990     8.3
2022     8.0
Coldest
2013     2.8
1970     3.7
1987     4.1
1996     4.5
1979     4.7         also 1980, 1984 & 1985 all at 4.7

Last 5 Years
2023     7.0
2022     8.0
2021     7.3
2020     6.8
2019     7.9

As usual, if I can receive all predictions by 23.59 on the 29th of February Thanks all and good luck.
 

---

Hi Justin. 
Hi - just stickied it for you.    🙂 

---

Hints of both mild and cold weather in the ensembles so another difficult one. Could easily be cooler than February though.
 

---

March is looking like a very difficult month to call!
models very mixed with some very cold members but more just above average. we haven’t had a colder then average month since December 2022 so 14 months and counting  and before then we hadn’t had another colder than average one for 18 months back in May 2021 and April 21 was also below average. 

So I am going with a distinctly boring 7.1 March making colder then February. 

---

7.7c please

Hi Justin. Hi - I'll go for 8.0C. 
Hoping this will be a nice March.

Regards. Hungry Tiger.    🙂 

---

I’ll try to get the predictions up either This evening or tomorrow. 
Just got on a busy, wet train home to Brighton with no Wi-Fi again. …..

---

March predictions we seem to have lost two participants, I have messaged them but as yet no reply 

Again apologies for the awful visuals of the info presented, if anyone can advise on a way to upload excel or other tables it would make this process a lot easier. 

Name                           March 2024
kendalian                     6.15
Saint Snow                   6.30
bertwhistle           6.43
stormchaser         6.65
1991 - 2020 Average6.74
artzeman               6.80
gezm               7.10
jmm2005         7.10
Dickieboy68     7.11
col                           7.19
frank h                 7.25
redmoons               7.25
bolty                 7.40
dingle rob         7.40
grandad             7.40
Spring Sun Winter Dread 7.40
snowshoe         7.50
rickm                 7.55
Splinter        7.67
Gavin D               7.70
taylor1740           7.70
scillydave      7.75
sussex snow magnet     7.90
hungry tiger            8.00
lanky                      8.04
ap snowman          8.10
caz       8.40
windywillow         8.90
 

---

Hadley

4.2c to the 1st

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

IMANSF22          3.1c             Nicks' 1BATH75        2.4c
Metcheck           3.35c            Anomaly          -2.81c
Netweather        4.48c            Anomaly          -1.83c
Peasedown St John   2.62c     Anomaly          -4.18c.         

---

Hadley

3.8c to the 2nd

1.8c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

IMANSF22        2.9c             Nicks' 1BATH 75         2.5c
Metcheck         3.27c            Anomaly        -2.89c
Netweather      4.26c            Anomaly        -2.05c
Peasedown St John 2.47c     Anomaly        -4.33c.

---

Hadley

4.1c to the 3rd

1.6c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

Your run down of cold Marches is interesting

I remember when March 2006 seemed like the ultimate in cold wintry Marches, 2018 seemed very cold too (of course 2013 absolutely bossed both - and indeed we haven't had a colder month of any name since - but that was a massive outlier)

But in the 1980s neither would have stood out ! Sub 5C Marches were the norm then 


 

 No update for yesterday?  I’ll leave it with you for a couple of weeks. I’m waiting to board the plane for Singapore.  A bit hotter there!   

---

IMANSF22          4.3c            Nicks' 1Bath 75       3.4c
Metcheck            4.22c         Anomaly       -1.94c
Netweather         5.8c          Anomaly        -1.23c
Peasedown St John 3.42c    Anomaly        -.3.38c. 
 

---

Hadley

4.8c to the 5th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

IMANSF22              4.5c             Nicks-1BATH 75         3.9c
Metcheck               4.41c           Anomaly        -1.75c
Netweather            5.25c           Anomaly        -1.06
Peasedown St John 4.6c            Anomaly        -2.7c. 

---

Hadley

5.0c to the 6th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

I need those temps kept suppressed!!

 

---

I reckon I've gone too high.   🙂 

---

IMANSF22            4.7c                Nicks'-1BATH75         4.1c
Metcheck             4.57c                  Anomaly                -1.57c
Netweather          5.4c                    Anomaly               -0.9c
Peasedown St John   4.16c             Anomaly               -2.64c.

---

Will March be the coldest month of "winter"??

Happened in 2013 and came within inches of happening in 2006 (that mild final week of March prevented it being much more notable)
Somehow I can't see it this year, expect a mild second half to come and take us nearer the 6.5-8c range where most modern Marches ends up

I still find it strange to think that in the 11 years since no month of any name has been colder than March 2013 ! (Feb 18 and Jan 21 the closest )

I refuse to believe we won't see such cold again though 

Imanssf22   6.6c        Nicks'1Bath75    4.5c
Metcheck   4.78c      Anomaly             -1.38c
Netweather 5.55c     Anomaly             -0.76c
Peasedown St John  4.62c     Anomaly    -2.18c. 
 

---

Imansf22               5.2c                Nicks' - 1BATH75            5.2c
Metcheck              5.31c                    Anomaly                   -0.85c
Netweather           6.63c                    Anomaly                   -0.28c
Peasedown St John 5.32c                  Anomaly                   -1.48c.
     

---