What a mess. I'm coming to the conclusion that the climate system has been distorted completely outside of historical precedent. These days, we're able to see a month characterised by a major sudden stratospheric warming event that forces a strong -NAO episode, yet remain largely on the warm side of the polar boundary, albeit only just. Worst part is, in doing so, copious rainfall is unavoidable, as we've very much endured.
Much of this year to date has felt extremely unpredictable beyond at most 10 days lead time, indeed extended (let alone seasonal) modelling in general has been well off the mark. 'What usually happens' has been of little use for advising long-term estimation. I had low confidence for March and to be honest it's only somewhat better for April.
Good luck with the estimates, everyone.
Oh and Happy Easter to those who partake.
Last and certainly not least, all the best to Justin.
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On