theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 November 2024 08:03:31

Not sure if there will be a sort of rain shadow  with lighter precipitation in the Vale of York that might scupper things.  It seems to look more promising than previous events though with many models showing a covering . 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Unlikely, because the wind is not directly blowing from the Pennines over the value. Indeed we mostly have a south easterly or easterly wind which should limit any dry slots.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 November 2024 08:05:42
AROME3Z maybe 50 miles further north than the 0Z. Happy about that from IMBY perspective.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 November 2024 08:07:41
HIRLAM5Z (yes we get hourly zs now) is one of the most southern most solutions, affecting S Yorkshire and the N midlands. However it also has alot of shower activity on Tuesday for E Yorkshire and NE England.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Tim A
17 November 2024 08:19:39

Was thinking more of a shadow from the Wolds/ N Y Moors from the easterly.  Seen it before but hopefully won't be a factor. It's always quite subtle but can result in lighter precipitation
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 November 2024 08:23:57
My experience is the wolds are not high or large enough to produce a meaningful region of descent.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
westv
17 November 2024 08:24:27
Could ne an interesting week but let's look out for any ducks being supported by November ice!
At least it will be mild!
Joe Bloggs
17 November 2024 09:24:02
Very, very interesting this. 
What seems most encouraging is the surface parameters. North of the low, temperatures and dewpoints seem consistently to be modelled at or below freezing. That is relatively rare for events like this when upper air temps are forecast to be so modest, i.e. just below freezing. 

Across and around the M62 corridor seems to be the sweet spot at the moment, But this could change. 

Any models that don’t show lying snow for the Manchester area or North Cheshire are probably accounting for the easterly wind foehn effect / rain-shadow which is incredibly difficult to predict. Looking at the vector and the potency of the front, I’m hoping it be won’t be a huge issue this time - , We won’t know until the front starts rolling in. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
Joe Bloggs
17 November 2024 09:39:32
Some charts from the 00z GFS 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_48_43.png 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_48_2.png 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_48_37.png 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_48_25.png 
Looks solid for a rain to snow event. Don’t expect much if any accumulation here despite the charts, but v interesting so early in the season . 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
Matty H
17 November 2024 10:11:39
Met Office warning adjusted South, removing central Scotland. The text suggests you’re going to need some elevation (above 200m) to see accumulation, but it does say a chance at lower levels 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 November 2024 14:13:09

Met Office warning adjusted South, removing central Scotland. The text suggests you’re going to need some elevation (above 200m) to see accumulation, but it does say a chance at lower levels 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Suprised actually, away from the boundary and the east coast, this shouldn't even be marginal and I wouldn't have thought snow should have any difficulty settling.
2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
+1
Brian Gaze
17 November 2024 16:05:28
Arpege 12Z rewrites the script.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+3
scillydave
17 November 2024 16:29:34

Arpege 12Z rewrites the script.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Just another 50 miles or so South and I think the Arpege will have it nailed...
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Bolty
17 November 2024 16:32:11
The Met Office automated forecast is going for five hours of heavy snow IMBY on Monday evening. BBC a bit more skeptical with sleet instead.

Either way, I'd say it looks quite marginal for lower levels. Above 200m and your prospects are very good.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Brian Gaze
17 November 2024 17:34:26
No surprise to see Arome 12Z also bringing the snow risk southwards.
From about here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arome.aspx?run=12&charthour=24&chartname=preciprate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20rate 

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
doctormog
17 November 2024 18:02:01
On the subject of the Met Office app, it has snow showers here from 9pm until around 5 am tomorrow. We have already had a couple of brief snow showers. Nice to see but unsurprisingly did not settle on the relatively mild and damp ground. Tuesday may be a bit different here with snow and thunder forecast.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
scillydave
17 November 2024 18:04:30
It could be a very snowy day in the high Cotswolds on Monday into Tuesday if the southward trend of the Arpege / Arome continues. My old home of Birdlip could do very, very well out of this.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Snowedin3
17 November 2024 18:44:06
This whole thing looks a repeat of the Dec10th Snow across the midlands in 2017 pretty sure the last model runs brough the snow line further south than originally predicted?
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
howham
17 November 2024 19:32:58
Wet snow showers during the day but now it is dark, the snow has started to settle and the ground is white.  
+2
doctormog
17 November 2024 19:54:21

Wet snow showers during the day but now it is dark, the snow has started to settle and the ground is white.  

Originally Posted by: howham 


Similar here in the city with unexpectedly (to me at least) a light covering on the ground.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Rob K
17 November 2024 20:21:37
Never mind Scotland, plenty of snow around on the hills in Yorkshire today by the pics on social media. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Snowedin3
17 November 2024 22:35:49
Arpage 18z sticking to its very snowy guns tonight, probably slightly south than earlier too, contrast to gfs and Icon, depths of 10cm widely across the central belt of England 
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Rob K
17 November 2024 23:45:21

Arpage 18z sticking to its very snowy guns tonight, probably slightly south than earlier too, contrast to gfs and Icon, depths of 10cm widely across the central belt of England 

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


Yes Arpege brings the Tuesday snow further south and the Thursday snow further north, so both just about reach the M4 from different directions. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
18 November 2024 00:03:36

Yes Arpege brings the Tuesday snow further south and the Thursday snow further north, so both just about reach the M4 from different directions. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Across the high res models:
Arome has a mix of sleet and snow mostly north of London. 
Alaro has a substantial snowfall from the northernmost parts of the Northern Home Counties and then into the SE as the system moves away.
WRF keeps it as rain until some brief back edge sleet.
The latest ICON run (21z) brings the snow boundary about 30 miles further south than its 18z, bringing it down into northern Cambs.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jiries
18 November 2024 05:37:31

Arpage 18z sticking to its very snowy guns tonight, probably slightly south than earlier too, contrast to gfs and Icon, depths of 10cm widely across the central belt of England 

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3 


Looking forward to see snow here and not long now to wait.   Highest depth since I moved was 8cm few times so hope to surpass that to this time.
Tim A
18 November 2024 06:05:22
Worth noting the Met Office view is something akin to this , whilst other outcomes like Arome and Arpege are possible I wouldn't expect they would be the favourite. UserPostedImage this 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 

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