Just yesterday, I posted a question on the MO thread about the possibility of this weekend's low pressure system being officially named as Storm Bert and now that I've done that, I'm not surprised in any way that this has now happened.
Furthermore, anyone who follows Mark Vogan's videos on YouTube will no doubt have seen some possible clues to this possibility.
Mark Vogan doesn't claim to be a professional meteorologist and he works merely as a lorry driver as his main occupation. Yet for someone who is therefore just a weather enthusiast just like me or the likes of Gavin P. (who is also equally just as knowledgeable when it comes to the weather, albeit for different reasons), his knowledge on the weather is very impressive, especially when it comes to the MJO which features quite a lot in his videos.
Mark Vogan has explained on many occasions that certain phases of the MJO (notably phases 7, 8 and 1) tend to favour colder weather here in the UK whilst other phases of the MJO (most notably phases 4 and 5) tend to favour milder weather here in the winter and according to his theory, he can get a rough prediction of what the weather pattern is likely to be at some time in the medium term future before any of that is even picked up by any of the latest models. What makes this even more remarkable is that these predictions then tend more often than not to be all that far away from what actually ends up happening.
According to Mark Vogan's theory about the MJO, phase 3 of the MJO tends to favour stormy weather and it just so happens that the last two named storms (Storm Lilian and Storm Ashley) both coincided with phase 3 of the MJO albeit not necessarily exactly as there is usual a time lag involved with that.
We have just been through phases 7, 8 and 1 of the MJO which is thought to have led to the current cold snap and now, we are coming into phase 3 of the MJO once again so it's a real coincidence that Storm Bert has now been named just as that has happened but Mark Vogan has been hinting for quite a while in his videos that this could lead to a stormy period of weather.
As for the impacts of that, the one positive thing is that we might at least actually get a bit of interesting weather here in Edinburgh at long last. The possibility of snow on the forward edge of this system has been hinted at even for here in Edinburgh but with this type of pattern changing weather system, that very rarely actually happens here especially in NW Edinburgh where I am as the air tends to be already starting to get a bit milder even before the precipitation actually arrives.
Nevertheless, this could get very interesting in many places as regards to any transitional snowfall before the milder air arrives in earnest.
Edited by user
21 November 2024 11:56:09
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Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.