WX charts - continuing yesterday's theme. Week 1 shows mild air flooding NE-wards across France up to the Baltic (but missing Scotland) while the cold air in the east is pushed SE-wards to the Balkans and Turkey. The mild air stalls in week 2 and something much colder firms up the freezing air mass over Russia, but not yet moving W-wards. Pptn for Atlantic coastal countries in both weeks, focused on Britain in week 1 and on Portugal in week 2. Also over Turkey week 1 moving west to the Med in week 2.
GFS Op 0z - current NW-lies withdrawing with parent LP to Norway as storm Bert approaches and deepens ever more; tomorrow FAX shows 937mb about 250miles W of Ireland with SW gales and more for Britain with fronts taking their time to cross the country over the weekend. By Tue 26th Bert is in the northern N Sea moving away but trailing a secondary 995mb Wales Wed 27th (new feature). Pressure rises behind this but drifts slowly E-wards to Germany with W Britain affected by Atlantic troughs from Tue 3rd. Eventually these troughs make progress NW-wards and the HP sinks S-wards to leave a standard W-ly zonal flow Sat 7th between 965mb Faeroes and 1025mb Spain (penetrating quite deeply into Russia contrary to WX above)
ECM - no secondary Wed 27th, pressure rises more quickly, but also subsides more quickly with trough extending S from Faeroes to S England on Mon 2nd with weak N-lies.
GEM - like GFS but troughs after Tue 3rd closer to W Britain
GEFS - very mild for a couple of days as Bert moves through, dropping to just below norm around Tue 26th, then near norm or a little above to Sun 8th with moderately good agreement from ens members throughout. Rain quite likely at any time, esp in SW, perhaps a brief dry slot Fri 29th
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl