theweatheroutlook

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The Beast from the East
23 November 2024 10:22:37
06z is bollox. lets hope the ENS are better and send the jet south
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Hippydave
23 November 2024 10:28:52
I think the theme in the short to mid term at the moment is HP trying to establish over the UK or just to the North but ultimately failing to take hold and slinking off to the south east. There's been a few op runs that hold the HP over the UK, as well as a few ens members, but broadly it looks more likely that HP is too high over the near continent, either caused by the Atlantic or acting in conjunction with. 

It wouldn't take a lot to change things back towards a cooler settled spell and it's not like the Atlantic is in full flow, so longer term there's windows for something more interesting as per the 00z GFS op and some of the ens. ECM T240 is interesting but again with high pressure to the SE of the UK it's entirely possible a promising chart ends up with us in a mildish limbo. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
roadrunnerajn
23 November 2024 10:30:39
Just my thoughts but haven’t the models especially the GFS showed decent cold set ups in the past at this time of year, especially late year. Could it be that the models find it hard to interpret how the intensifying cold to the north will interact with the jet and as a result we get quite a few cold options showing which decreases as December starts and the models have a better idea.
Just my observations looking at the charts over the years.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Ally Pally Snowman
23 November 2024 10:39:06

Just my thoughts but haven’t the models especially the GFS showed decent cold set ups in the past at this time of year, especially late year. Could it be that the models find it hard to interpret how the intensifying cold to the north will interact with the jet and as a result we get quite a few cold options showing which decreases as December starts and the models have a better idea.
Just my observations looking at the charts over the years.

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 


It's definitely something the models have done the last few years.  The difference this year is we have actually had a decent cold spell.
Will we get another one? The Atlantic train seems to be struggling this year so I think we have more hope than normal.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
23 November 2024 10:42:33

Anyone have access to the UKMO 168 ? Would like to see if the ridge can hold

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2024112300/UW144-21.GIF 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php 

It doesn't - classic west-based negative NAO setup.
Leysdown, north Kent
fairweather
23 November 2024 11:19:54

That's your second "Winter is Over" post in 2 days, Beast 🤣. At least give it until winter actually starts before you write it off.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


I'm going to set a reminder to be the first to post a "winter's started" one on December 1st. 😀
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
23 November 2024 11:24:46

Pretty serious cool down for North America forecast towards the end of the month. Will be interesting to see what knock on effect that may have on this side of the pond with time. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Not much correlation usually but tends to be mild here when they have a freeze. We want mild advection up their East coast on up to Greenland really.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
23 November 2024 15:17:20
GFS and ECM ensembles fairly solid on mild and quite wet for the next two weeks. No obvious trends after that at the start of winter.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
ballamar
23 November 2024 15:45:22
Models and ENS are liable to flip and flop at this time of year. Milder is always a likely outcome but imagine a few eye candy scenarios will keep popping up, hopefully on the 12z
The Beast from the East
23 November 2024 17:33:53

Models and ENS are liable to flip and flop at this time of year. Milder is always a likely outcome but imagine a few eye candy scenarios will keep popping up, hopefully on the 12z

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


The lack of posts says it all. Looks like normal service resumed.  If it cant be cold then I'd prefer a euroslug and heat pump
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Retron
23 November 2024 18:10:14

The lack of posts says it all. Looks like normal service resumed.  If it cant be cold then I'd prefer a euroslug and heat pump

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes, back to the normal stuff - the best opportunity was several days ago now, when it looked like an omega block SW of Iceland might follow on from our cold spell. That didn't last for long, though, with the 50/50 split in the models (between an omega and the block moving away west) ended up as 5/95 in favour of the west-based NAO option. And as we know that's all too often followed by a SW'ly blast in our neck of the woods!

It's just a shame that switching sides of the jet from cold to warm so often comes with strong winds, as we're seeing today.
Leysdown, north Kent

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