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Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
23 November 2024 06:46:46

My elderly parents down in Hawick in the Scottish Borders aren't going to be chuffed about that as they are in that amber warning area and are bound to be impacted by that in some way.

I also have a sister who lives down there and luckily for me, she is able to give them a helping hand until I travel down there myself at Christmas as I normally do.

Here in Edinburgh, we are going to just be under two separate yellow warnings over the course of the weekend consisting of one for wind and another one for both rain and snow. The latter of those is probably unusual in a way because I've seen countless warnings in the past for rain and countless warnings for snow, but I don't recall seeing any warnings before for both rain and snow as one single warning at the same time.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Expect sleet then!
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
+1
StoneCroze
23 November 2024 07:31:48
We already have sustained winds of 35 Kts gusting 47 Kts. 
Mild at 11 C
Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
johncs2016
23 November 2024 08:22:07

Expect sleet then!

Originally Posted by: Col 


As it has turned out, it's just rain which we're now getting which is exactly what I was expecting in the first place and my reasons for that conclusion are detailed at the end of the end of my post from a couple of days ago on this thread when I wrote all about the likelihood of these storms occurring and the relationship between that and the various phases of the MJO.

The models kept on consistently showing us getting snow even here in NW Edinburgh but I already knew that this was never going to happen in a million years. My reason for that had nothing to do with any claims to know better than the actual professionals in this field, and have instead stemmed from the fact that I've seen this story play out so many times when the models point to us getting snow only for us to get rain that I now know not to expect any other outcome here, so this shows that you sometimes just have to go with your own past experience of what you are used to seeing rather than going by the models which in this context, are a complete waste of time in my books although the models were at least correct with the timing of the arrival of this precipitation as they consistently pointed towards that arriving at around 7am GMT (07:00 UTC) this morning and that was around the time when it actually started raining.

The end result of this is the cold spell as ended with Edinburgh completely out on any snowfall (at least, that is the case here in NW Edinburgh) even though almost everyone else on here at least got some snow with that, and that is very disappointing.

Finally, I'll finish with one final point about the wind. With these systems, we tend to get the precipitation well in advance of any wind events and this means that when the rain/snow arrives, there usually won't be any wind for quite a while with then. It is then usually only later on when the wind picks up and sometimes, that doesn't even happen until after the rain has cleared away.

That isn't quite the case this time though because although there wasn't any wind to begin with when it first started raining, the wind is now already picking up quite a bit.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Crepuscular Ray
23 November 2024 08:25:44
A good summary John, I expect this 'storm' to be a wet and windy spell, nothing more!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
doctormog
23 November 2024 08:29:38
Yes, away from high ground inland, this will be a period of wet and windy weather. 

Remarkably there has been complete snow cover in my garden since Sunday evening. Very unusual for mid-November. It will be gone soon when the rain sets in but it has notably wintry..

I suspect parts of the Cairngorms are about to get a very intense few hours of weather.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
johncs2016
23 November 2024 08:30:48

A good summary John, I expect this 'storm' to be a wet and windy spell, nothing more!

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


If there's any snow in Edinburgh, your location will usually be the most likely place to get it even if we don't get it here in NW Edinburgh and only get rain here.

The fact that you're not getting any snow either therefore shows just how pathetic the model output has been when it has been consistently showing snow for here, even though there was never a snowball's chances in hell of that ever happening.😡
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Crepuscular Ray
23 November 2024 09:48:11

If there's any snow in Edinburgh, your location will usually be the most likely place to get it even if we don't get it here in NW Edinburgh and only get rain here.

The fact that you're not getting any snow either therefore shows just how pathetic the model output has been when it has been consistently showing snow for here, even though there was never a snowball's chances in hell of that ever happening.😡

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


It changed rapidly here John, a good 3cm now after an hour of heavy snow!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Matty H
23 November 2024 09:53:36
Up to this point the rainfall here is nothing like it was modelled or forecast. Long way to go though
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Chunky Pea
23 November 2024 09:56:32
33.5mm overnight and 39.1mm within the last 12 hrs. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
johncs2016
23 November 2024 10:00:28

It changed rapidly here John, a good 3cm now after an hour of heavy snow!

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Actually, it's changed here as well because the rain eventually turned to snow here in NW Edinburgh (the exact opposite of what was forecast to happen) as well and it is now lying which has given us a very nice looking Christmas card scene.

It's just a shame that all of that is likely to disappear later on once the milder air moves in.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
doctormog
23 November 2024 10:06:22

Actually, it's changed here as well because the rain eventually turned to snow here in NW Edinburgh (the exact opposite of what was forecast to happen) as well and it is now lying which has given us a very nice looking Christmas card scene.

It's just a shame that all of that is likely to disappear later on once the milder air moves in.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Actually the high resolution models showed exactly what you are experiencing- Initially rain as the precipitation moves in and then as it intensifies it turns to snow then turns back to rain around midday, before clearing early to mid-afternoon.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Hippydave
23 November 2024 10:16:49
Looking snowy on the Cairngorm webcams. Showery rain IMBY with temps gradually increasing, now up to 7.8c from a 0.8c overnight low. The breeze has been picking up but nothing more than a bit breezy so far, with the stronger winds/gusts expected later today. 
https://www.cairngormmountain.co.uk/live-webcams/ 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
roadrunnerajn
23 November 2024 10:20:35
Most of the rain action has been to the north with just 2.6mm here overnight. It’s currently 13.6c and rising. 
The main action from Bert is due this evening and overnight as the storm move SE and two cold fronts move through. We are gusting to 55mph at the moment with gusts expected to be 70+ going into Sunday. 
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
idj20
23 November 2024 10:26:11
Certainly feeling the wind here at the harbour area as it funnels straight in from the Channel. My wheelie bin is already trying to go on a little stroll (to be fair, it's freshly emptied out so there's no weight in it). And it's only just started, but thankfully not much rain even though 9.0 mm fell in the early hours but that was when winds were calmer at the time. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
StoneCroze
23 November 2024 10:31:34
Blowing a full gale locally, with gusts to 48Kts.
No flights.
Edit: Just heard the siren going on the ambulance, hope it's not too serious, any medivac will be by sea on the lifeboat. 
Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
johncs2016
23 November 2024 12:12:13
I've just read that Lothian Buses have taken all of their services off the road here in Edinburgh because of all of the snow which has been around this morning.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
idj20
23 November 2024 13:15:04
Seemed to have eased down to just a bit of a brisk breeze despite the forecast rising wind speeds. Probably due to a slight change in wind direction, just enough for my house to be sheltered by the hilly built up bit to my south west.   
Folkestone Harbour. 
+1
roadrunnerajn
23 November 2024 13:29:48
We have a warm hair dryer wind here 14.8c. Two days ago we peaked at 4.3c. It is however very windy with the sea spray coming over the road in Penzance. Pushing the trolly across the supermarket car park was a challenge in itself.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
+1
Retron
23 November 2024 15:51:08
I'm delighted in this, but it does count as a big fail by the models!

GFS has, all afternoon, sustained winds around 35 and gusts to 58 or 59 here.
The MetO raw has 28 to 52 or so, while ECM has gusts around 50.
The reality? Mean of around 25, gusts to 40 - rarely, most in the mid 30s.

Much better than expected, frankly, and I'm hoping the same is true overnight (when gusts are always more noticeable) and also tomorrow morning, when GFS has gusts into the 60s, and MetO has mid-50s...
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
The Beast from the East
23 November 2024 17:26:10

I'm delighted in this, but it does count as a big fail by the models!

GFS has, all afternoon, sustained winds around 35 and gusts to 58 or 59 here.
The MetO raw has 28 to 52 or so, while ECM has gusts around 50.
The reality? Mean of around 25, gusts to 40 - rarely, most in the mid 30s.

Much better than expected, frankly, and I'm hoping the same is true overnight (when gusts are always more noticeable) and also tomorrow morning, when GFS has gusts into the 60s, and MetO has mid-50s...

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Arpege had much higher for tomorrow, but hopefully wrong. Still no yellow warning IMBY which is a good sign
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Roger Parsons
23 November 2024 17:26:20
Some BBC photos: enjoy.
Your pictures: Storm Bert brings snow, wind and rain to UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yr40qjegeo 
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 November 2024 17:34:46



Much better than expected, frankly, and I'm hoping the same is true overnight (when gusts are always more noticeable) and also tomorrow morning, when GFS has gusts into the 60s, and MetO has mid-50s...

Originally Posted by: Retron 


For all that, a driver killed when a tree was blown onto his car near Winchester.

But in Chichester, not that far away, it was no more than a 'normal' sort of gale, so I think he  was very unlucky - there haven't bee reports of trees blown down locally.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
rockhopper
23 November 2024 17:54:03
Not a breath of wind all day in Perth. Snow fell fast and stuck to everything. No rain to speak of either so it’s still lying quite deep. 
Perth. Scotland. 55m asl
Retron
23 November 2024 18:00:12

For all that, a driver killed when a tree was blown onto his car near Winchester.

But in Chichester, not that far away, it was no more than a 'normal' sort of gale, so I think he  was very unlucky - there haven't bee reports of trees blown down locally.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Trees have caused problems (as expected) down here too - the M2 had a lane closed earlier as a tree came down. Big deal, you may think, but despite its important-sounding number the M2 is only two lanes in each direction locally, so it caused long delays. Another tree blocked one of the A2's carriageways near Dover.

There were also trees down on the railways, with further delays in various places.

As mentioned, it's not the strength so much as the prolonged nature of it - and with many trees still in leaf too, the problems are greater than they would be in say February.

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/travel-disruption-as-strong-winds-buffet-county-316340/ 
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
23 November 2024 18:02:48

Arpege had much higher for tomorrow, but hopefully wrong. Still no yellow warning IMBY which is a good sign

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The 12z Arpege has around 55mph for both you and I, on a par with the other models. It's the Westcountry which takes a battering with Arpege!
Leysdown, north Kent

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