Hello all, quick post just before i go out to grab some lunch. Cold air now over Southern Ontario, not proper cold by Calgary standards but cold enough! Over 60mm of rain in some spots Tuesday into Wednesday, 45mm in Hamilton and over 30mm up in T.O. - the rain then did turn to snow for a short while on Wed morning bringing many a happy face as i came into work, as if folk in Hamilton had said hello again to an old friend!

A 1cm of snow recorded in many parts of the GTA from Oakville to higher parts of Hamilton away from Lake Ontario. Fairly wet snow but it stuck for a few hours before melting in the afternoon. No problems with this snow in terms of travel. (And i know, it's only 1cm when i've seen 70cm in one storm before!) but like the sentiment that was going around yesterday it was nice to have it back!

Today it's 4c and then forecasted for a cold one tonight and then some flurry activity to come in overnight thru lunch tomorrow, maybe bringing 2cm or an inch in choosen spots. At the minute, it gets cleared out of here by Sunday and it's back to rain but more wintery possibilites ahead in the next week, at least it's not half as boring as November's weather was for the most part.

Take Care

Weekend grretings, it's been a little while - incredibly busy spell!

Plus ca change though with winter continuing to drag its heels for many in the east. I see Accuweather have 'revised' their winter forecast meaning the worss of the winter is now expected over the western Great Lakes through the Rockies. Potentially lots of changeover events for southern Ontario if that comes off. 'If' that comes off. The Weather Network roughly go along with this pattern in terms of Canada:  http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=winter_outlook_2011__2012_211111?ref=ccbox_homepage_topstories

Interesting blog from Brett Anderson this week with a new take on the shorter term LRFs from ECM. Looks interesting for you Stewart - snow arrives in the run up to Christmas (of course you'll be coming back to Scotland!). http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-model-forecast-interpretation-through-january-1st/58540

Hello all, interesting weather patterns both short and longer term developing all across N America. Having had a few proper cold days compared to November with some flurry activity on Friday in the GTA, it's now 10c as i type in rain showers. A very unsettled week ahead again and hints (indications?) of sustained cold weather making an appearance in Eastern North America later this week.

EC have forecasts of 0-2c and snow or flurries for next Fri/Sat, still a wee while away yet but it would play into some of the medium term lrf's that have been going around on Accuweather. Before then, more rain for Mon/Tue before turning cooler then cold. Rain that some parts of Southern Ontario don't need an unusually wet start to winter in some Western parts of the state.

As for the lrf's showing more storms for the western Great Lakes Graeme, we'll see on that as always. We maybe overdue a stormy winter, thinking back to the snowfests and borderline winter storm situations that i used to report on alot in the early years of being in Dundas. Laterly, the past 2 winters have been very cold at times but lacking 'real' snowevents or storms (with one or two major headlining exceptions of course)! As i said above, the rainstorms of the past week and forecasts of more this, maybe a signal for these Western tracking storm systems, at the minute without the cold air to turn things white!

Take Care

Looking at the winter 2011/12 outlook on the Weather Network - It does seem like southern ON could be caught in the rain/snow mix!?

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=winter_outlook_2011__2012_211111?ref=ccbox_alerts_topstories

Hello folks, most of the City of Hamilton area joined the lying snow club overnight as a very wet day surprisingly gave way to wet snow which stuck to the depth of an inch (3cm) in parts of the city, including Downtown and here in Dundas. Munro airport confirmed it's first measurable snowfall of the winter season also. Snow was for once a Hamilton only event, slushy deposits were reported in both Oakville & Toronto. TWN latest newscast shows Hamilton's snow, including the stairs along the lakeshore walk here - http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather_news.

Surprise snowfalls are always the best! More to come too on Friday as temps turn colder as the weekend approaches, maybe some substantial snow around Fri/Sat, still unsure on this though. This all came after a record breaking soaker of a Monday in the GTA & GHA. Toronto, Hamilton & London all recording there wettest December 5 in history, 22mm fell at Munro Airport, but over 30mm up at Pearson. Record breaking because Ontario doesn't often see heavy rain in December!

The first week of December has already made up for the borefest that was the Fall season, hopefully more storms be the wet or white to come in the run up to xmas, just 2 weeks tomorrow until i fly out of YYZ back to GLA for the hols.

Take Care

Well it has been an interesting few days.  The snowfall that was predicted (last minute) came, but was more like I first predicted  - 5cm, enough to make it whitish, but nothing special.  What was more interesting was last weekend - having predicted a few flurries, suddenly with 100% accurate nowcasting we had a full winter storm courtesy of a cold front trailing down the lee of the Rockies.  Dumped 15cm on top of us and winter has begun.

Of course being Calgary this was followed by a Chinook thaw, followed by another inch of snow, followed by warmer weather (today) cooling down again for Sun, with a chance of flurries.  Never a dull moment!

Peter 

July 2011 - June 2012 Stats
Elevation: 1084m
Latitude: 51° 6' N
Warmest Temperature: 30.4c 29/08/11
Coldest Temperature: -21.5c 20/11/11
Days with thunderstorms: 4
Days with rain falling: 20
Days with snow falling: 10
Days with snow lying: 23
Maximum snow depth: 6" (15cm)
Current snow depth 2" (6cm)

Yes heard it hit almost +10C today but the snow didn't thaw so must have been thick, beyon looks (as you said) back to sub-zero soon before more to average temps next week but drier!

Hello folks, 2 weeks to xmas and the coldest airflow of the season has touched Southern Ontario over the past few days. We got down to -8c last evening at one stage before temps slowly recovered, -8c with a -14 windchill - reminded me that it was December!! A wee bit of a shock to the system! Also, good snowflurry activity for parts of the GTA including Hamilton on Friday, nothing major the odd cm then it would disintergrate thru time. Down the coast on the shores of Ontario however parts of the Niagara Pennisula from St.Catharine's round to Niagara Falls had snowfall totals upto 10cm (4 inches). Good snowsqual lines also set up along Erie battering Buffalo, NY on Friday afternoon and up in Cottage Country northwest of the Greater Toronto Area. Bracebridge, ON had according to TWN over 6 inches of new snowfall since Friday alone.

Staying cold in Dundas today at 1c but good sunny skies. The cold eases somewhat this week with that 'r' word returning turning the snow to that watery cousin of it's. Indications are for colder but not overly cold conditions to return by next weekend.

Further afield and talking about the up and down weather in Calgary, further heavy snowfall forecast for today, tonight and into tomorrow across Southern portions of AB. Upto 15cm TWN are saying just to the south of Peter with Calgary maybe picking up another couple of inches.

And what a week for weather back home in Scotland. The storm made it to TWN's newscasts and on the main weather section on the evening news here on Friday. Fortunately no one killed or badly injured and it seems like the country coped as well as it could given the conditions, i must say excellent coverage on the other forum threads here on TWO which i tried to keep upto date with. That iconic image of Saltcoats shore and the goods train made it to Canadian tele, i was impressed!

Take Care

Hello folks, wet has indeed replaced white (for now) in Southern Ontario and it is miserably wet, those famous 'at least it will be mild'! words spring up on days like this. Temps currently at 12c/54f expected to reach a 'warm' 14c/57f by this afternoon....ridiculously warm for December. However, we see some Calgary temperature swings kick-in later this evening as the front bringing the showers and longer spells of rain moves SE introducing much colder air  currently forecasted for a high Saturday of -3c! ...... 17c difference in 48hrs!

Flurries start to pep-up also tomorrow so back to winter we go by the looks of things. Incidentally -3 or indeed anything lower than +1c will be our coldest day of the season so far.

Cold and potentially snowy weekend in Ontario but further afield, Accuweather reporting that as things stand most of the Eastern 3rd of the U.S. will have a green xmas and not a white one. Vastly different conditions from those seen across the lower 48 just 12 months ago. Henry forecasting maybe snow showers at best for the ohio valley, which reminds me of ex-North American correspondant Gordon from Columbus, OH. Snow in the Ohio valley i recall doesn't always mean snow in Columbus!

Take Care

How about 17c in 48 mins - that would be more like us.

Stays all over the place here as well - Sunday flurries turned into 6 inches of snow, which I'm hoping will stick around till Christmas.  But it's been warm today, warmer tomorrow, maybe more 'flurries' Sunday, warm Monday, more flurries Tue - rinse and repeat!

The only thing we really haven't had that much of is real cold - daytime max's have not gone below -10c yet this month...

Peter 

July 2011 - June 2012 Stats
Elevation: 1084m
Latitude: 51° 6' N
Warmest Temperature: 30.4c 29/08/11
Coldest Temperature: -21.5c 20/11/11
Days with thunderstorms: 4
Days with rain falling: 20
Days with snow falling: 12
Days with snow lying: 29
Maximum snow depth: 6" (15cm)
Current snow depth 4" (10cm)

It was 13C in Calgary this afternoon - Thats very mild for December:

http://www.cbc.ca/calgary/weather/s0000047.html

Btw - There was a daytime high of -23C on 1st and 2nd March earlier this year, so perhaps wait until March to get -20C or below!?

Weekend greetings,

Been a busy spell - just back from a very pleasant few days in Munich where despite it being generally mild I saw a little snow yesterday to make things look festive. Great city.

Just catching up on the NA weather and I must say it continues to be very unwinterlike for many. Looking at the latest GFS run, I'm struck by how the cold remains bottled up to the north. As Peter has pointed out little sign of the real cold weather in the west promised by some LRFs (!)

Having said that some cold air has started making it into eastern Canada in the last week. With a high of -1.2c yesterday Toronto had its second ice day of the season. It's currently -14c in Ottawa and -16c in Quebec City so minima around average for where they should be in mid-December, for a short while at least.

Farther west the (relatively) mild theme predominates with highs in the southern Prairies just below freezing for much of the week, I reckon about 5-8c above normal as a rule of thumb.

Stewart mentioned the likely difference in snow cover come the big day in a week's time: this article from Accuweather covers it nicely: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/white-christmas-2010-vs-2011-t-1/59163

Hello all, my last post from Canada for a couple weeks as this time tomorrow night i'll be on Air Transat going back to Scotland for the holidays. Seems likely that it'll be a green xmas in Ayrshire this year despite the recent heavy snowfalls in some parts of the county especially the higher ground by what i hear from back home. Looking forward to going home and seeing the folks and as always some good Scottish traditions will be observed over the New Year period!

Weatherwise, it's gone colder briefly in Ontario after a mild couple of days over the weekend. We missed out on some snow today by a couple hundred miles from the frontal system that brought a nion Blizzard to parts of KS, NM & TX. Some parts of SW Kansas were virtually cut-off by the strong winds blowing and drifting the snow which blanketed the state overnight into Tuesday. This same system brought snow as far north and east as MI and OH, but not north of Lake Erie to effect Southern Ontario.

Overnight tonight rain from this storm will invade most of the GTA, briefly falling as freezing drizzle or rain which could cause and early morning headache or two. Tomorrow much milder into the 50'sF and staying mild until the weekend when there is still alot of uncertainty about what direction the weather will take. Indications from the charts show anything from very mild conditions to an all-out Blizzard across portions of the North & East of the U.S. including potentially ON, QB & Atlantic Canada.

EC currently have Sleet and +2c as a forecast for Xmas day. Definately a good chance somewhere in Southern Ontario of seeing snow either falling or lying on xmas day, but right now difficult to say where. One to watch across the East of the U.S. & Canada as the final trips are made before Christmas.

Finally, another year in Canada for me and a very interesting year indeed both personally and with the weather. This year we saw record low temps in Jan & Feb followed by an average to cool summer with one or two big storm events (Goderich, ON - for one!). Fall brought mild, unlike Eastern Canada weather really and quite wet late on before brief touches of winter this December but alas no big snowstorm......just yet! When i return on January 5, 2012 let's hope it's as interesting a year weatherwise as the one just gone and hopefully along the way i can tell the story the best i can.

I'll try and post from Ayrshire over the hols but for now Merry Christmas to everyone on TWO.

Take Care

Despite the rather tame start to winter over much of (inhabited) Canada, at least there is some seasonal weather in place for the big day tomorrow. A nice snowy Christmas Eve in Charlottetown, PEI  http://www.gov.pe.ca/islandcam/camera1.php3 and for parts of NS http://www.novascotiawebcams.com/northumberland-shore/antigonish-harbour.html Likewise St John's, NF (spent a few cheery evenings on George St!) http://www.ntv.ca/cams/Camerax4.php and not forgetting NB http://www.fredericton.ca/en/StJohnRiverWebcam.asp Toronto is green rather than brown but Ottawa has some snow: http://www.ottawakiosk.com/hill_cam.html as does Montreal http://www.montrealcam.com/en-oldmontreal.php

It only remains for me to wish all TWOers (and especially the regulars on this thread!) a very Merry Christmas!

Hi folks, i hope everyone had a good xmas. Just a quick post, just checked EC's website for the weather back in Southern Ontario and the first proper measurable snowfall could be on it's way for the big cities of the GTA this winter on Tuesday into Wednesday.

EC have a weather advisory out for most parts of the GTA, looks likely that anywhere away from Lakes Erie & Ontario could see 2-5cm but there is the risk of upto 15cm for parts of Northeastern Southern Ontario including Ottawa tomorrow night. The lp will intensify as it passes over Ontario turning any rain on lower levels to mostly snow by nightfall and a flash freeze warning is also in force for potential quick fire drop in temps to well below values come Wednesday morning for the Lakeshore areas.

So, some good wintery weather on tap and the rest of the week looks like staying very similar, borderline snow potential mixed with rain and temps at or slightly above 0c. A better more seasonal end to 2011 for the GTA.

Happy Holidays!

Ah the vagaries of weather forecasting - the snowfall warnings put out for Ottawa and Montreal proved to be unecessary as the former has only seen around 5cm of snow and Montreal saw mostly rain. 2cm of snow fell in Toronto (Pearson). The westward shift in the track of the storm meant the heavier snow was further north (North Bay saw 15cm).

Much colder air following the storm (currently -11c in Ottawa, +2c in Quebec City). Temps in the GTA around -7c/-8c this afternoon. However as has been the case so far this winter the cold doesn't linger long, with temps in Toronto up to +7c by New Year's Day. Turning colder again after that as the swings and roundabouts continue in the east.

Looking at the latest GFS runs though the frigid winter many LRFs predicted for out west is still nowhere to be seen, at least for the time being!

Indeed!! There has not been severe cold in Canada from what I can see - I remember Brett suggesting western parts of Canada could be colder than average and much snowier - This doesn't seem to be the case in the Prairies or Rockies - Look at Calgary:

http://www.cbc.ca/calgary/weather/s0000047.html

Calgary will still have a high of +10C today and as Peter had said - Calgary has yet to experience first day of -20c or below this winter. Perhaps we are returning to the El Nino? There has been very little snow if any up the east coast from what I gathered so far. My uncle from West Vaginia near DC hasn't seen any settling snow this year, so where are the "Nor-easter's!?" - I don't think there has been much snow in Boston either!?

2cm of snow in Toronto is pretty poor by Canadian standards! - There has been little if any lake effect snow too.

Happy New Year!

The first major lake-effect snow event of the winter is kicking off around the Great Lakes. Favoured areas will pick up as much as 2 feet (or more) of the white stuff by Tuesday. It's already underway in Michigan http://www.boyne.com/Gallery/Webcams/Hemlock.html and will spread eastwards. Here's Brett's take on the snowfall totals in southern Ontario - the ski resorts will be rubbing their hands.

I'm sure London, Ont will see some good snowfall - as usual most of the GTA will see just flurries, perhaps enough to give a cm or two (more to the north). Temps will be cold by Tuesday with highs in the -10c to -12c range. 

Following up from yesterday: the lake-effect machine gets going in earnest today downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Classic forecast for the infamous Tug Hill Plateau area to the east of Lake Ontario:

http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/USNY1078?phenomena=LE&significance=W&areaid=NYZ006&office=KBUF&etn=0001

"ACCUMULATIONS... UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH 6 AM... 11 TO 21 INCHES TODAY... 5 TO 9 INCHES TONIGHT... AND UP TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY."

Be worth keeping an eye on these webcams as the day progresses: http://www.northern-nys.com/webcams.htm

Meanwhile the Barrie webcams http://www.barrie.ca/City%20Hall/Webcams/Pages/default.aspx are an old favourite for watching lake effect off of Lake Huron.

Still very mild over the Prairies - I thought Brett Anderson forecasted snow and much below average temperatures for the western Prairies including Rockies for the winter months of Nov/December/Jan etc?

Today Calgary could reach +15C which is very unusual and Calgary has not yet had a sub-10C daytime temp let alone -20C or -30C??

Please kindly updated us when you can Peter.

Thanks.

Latest weather at Calgary:

http://www.cbc.ca/calgary/weather/s0000047.html

Edmonton is very mild too with a high of 9C today.
Saskatoon could see rain at 7C tomorrow.
Regina could reach 6C.
Winnipeg could even reach 4C above freezing!

This is very unusual and could this warmth be heading to Ontario and Maritimes!? All Canadian major Prairie cities are showing above freezing and well above average temperatures.

Boston in MA is also suffering from a lack of snow as is NYC, Philly, Washington DC etc. Most of the snow has been Northern upstate or western NY, but not in NYC.

+14/15C must be a near record for Calgary in January!? Anyone!? Doctormog - you have some data/facts and statistics don't you?! Look at the table chart of temperatures:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/fourteenday/caab0049/table?ref=tabs_14day_table